Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Discrimination of adsorption kinetic models for the description of hydrocarbon adsorption in activated carbon

Five kinetic models for adsorption of hydrocarbons on activated carbon are compared and investigated in this study. These models assume different mass transfer mechanisms within the porous carbon particle. They are: (a) dual pore and surface diffusion (MSD), (b) macropore, surface, and micropore diffusion (MSMD), (c) macropore, surface and finite mass exchange (FK), (d) finite mass exchange (LK), and (e) macropore, micropore diffusion (BM) models. These models are discriminated using the single component kinetic data of ethane and propane as well as the multicomponent kinetics data of their binary mixtures measured on two commercial activated carbon samples (Ajax and Norit) under various conditions. The adsorption energetic heterogeneity is considered for all models to account for the system. It is found that, in general, the models assuming diffusion flux of adsorbed phase along the particle scale give better description of the kinetic data.

Population subdivision in marine environments: the contributions of biogeography, geographic distance, and discontinuous habitat to genetic differentiation in a blennioid

The relative importance of factors that may promote genetic differentiation in marine organisms is largely unknown. Here, contributions to population structure from biogeography, habitat distribution, and isolation by distance were investigated in Axoclinus nigricaudus, a small subtidal rock reef fish, throughout its range in the Gulf of California. A 408 basepair fragment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from 105 individuals. Variation was significantly partitioned between many pairs of populations. Phylogenetic analyses, hierarchical analyses of variance, and general linear models substantiated a major break between two putative biogeographic regions. This genetic discontinuity coincides with an abrupt change in ecological characteristics (including temperature and salinity) but does not coincide with known oceanographic circulation patterns. Geographic distance and the nature of habitat separating populations (continuous habitat along a shoreline, discontinuous habitat along a shoreline, and open water) also contributed to population structure in general linear model analyses. To verify that local populations are genetically stable over time, one population was resampled on four occasions over eighteen months; it showed no evidence of a temporal component to diversity. These results indicate that having a planktonic life stage does not preclude geographically partitioned genetic variation over relatively small geographic distances in marine environments. Moreover, levels of genetic differentiation among populations of Axoclinus nigricaudus cannot be explained by a single factor, but are due to the combined influences of a biogeographic boundary, habitat, and geographic distance.

Utility functions on locally connected spaces

We investigate the role of local connectedness in utility theory and prove that any continuous total preorder on a locally connected separable space is continuously representable. This is a new simple criterion for the representability of continuous preferences, and is not a consequence of the standard theorems in utility theory that use conditions such as connectedness and separability, second countability, or path-connectedness. Finally we give applications to problems involving the existence of value functions in population ethics and to the problem of proving the existence of continuous utility functions in general equilibrium models with land as one of the commodities. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

General properties of cosmological models with an isotropic singularity

Much of the published work regarding the Isotropic Singularity is performed under the assumption that the matter source for the cosmological model is a barotropic perfect fluid, or even a perfect fluid with a gamma-law equation of state. There are, however, some general properties of cosmological models which admit an Isotropic Singularity, irrespective of the matter source. In particular, we show that the Isotropic Singularity is a point-like singularity and that vacuum space-times cannot admit an Isotropic Singularity. The relationships between the Isotropic Singularity, and the energy conditions, and the Hubble parameter is explored. A review of work by the authors, regarding the Isotropic Singularity, is presented.

Defining a role for the subthalamic nucleus within operative theoretical models of subcortical participation in language

Objective:To investigate the effects of bilateral, surgically induced functional inhibition of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) on general language, high level linguistic abilities, and semantic processing skills in a group of patients with Parkinson’s disease. Methods:Comprehensive linguistic profiles were obtained up to one month before and three months after bilateral implantation of electrodes in the STN during active deep brain stimulation (DBS) in five subjects with Parkinson’s disease (mean age, 63.2 years). Equivalent linguistic profiles were generated over a three month period for a non-surgical control cohort of 16 subjects with Parkinson’s disease (NSPD) (mean age, 64.4 years). Education and disease duration were similar in the two groups. Initial assessment and three month follow up performance profiles were compared within subjects by paired t tests. Reliability change indices (RCI), representing clinically significant alterations in performance over time, were calculated for each of the assessment scores achieved by the five STN-DBS cases and the 16 NSPD controls, relative to performance variability within a group of 16 non-neurologically impaired adults (mean age, 61.9 years). Proportions of reliable change were then compared between the STN-DBS and NSPD groups. Results:Paired comparisons within the STN-DBS group showed prolonged postoperative semantic processing reaction times for a range of word types coded for meanings and meaning relatedness. Case by case analyses of reliable change across language assessments and groups revealed differences in proportions of change over time within the STN-DBS and NSPD groups in the domains of high level linguistics and semantic processing. Specifically, when compared with the NSPD group, the STN-DBS group showed a proportionally significant (p

Redefining functional models of basal ganglia organisation: Role for the posteroventral pallidum in linguistic processing?

Traditionally the basal ganglia have been implicated in motor behavior, as they are involved in both the execution of automatic actions and the modification of ongoing actions in novel contexts. Corresponding to cognition, the role of the basal ganglia has not been defined as explicitly. Relative to linguistic processes, contemporary theories of subcortical participation in language have endorsed a role for the globus pallidus internus (GPi) in the control of lexical-semantic operations. However, attempts to empirically validate these postulates have been largely limited to neuropsychological investigations of verbal fluency abilities subsequent to pallidotomy. We evaluated the impact of bilateral posteroventral pallidotomy (BPVP) on language function across a range of general and high-level linguistic abilities, and validated/extended working theories of pallidal participation in language. Comprehensive linguistic profiles were compiled up to 1 month before and 3 months after BPVP in 6 subjects with Parkinson's disease (PD). Commensurate linguistic profiles were also gathered over a 3-month period for a nonsurgical control cohort of 16 subjects with PD and a group of 16 non-neurologically impaired controls (NC). Nonparametric between-groups comparisons were conducted and reliable change indices calculated, relative to baseline/3-month follow-up difference scores. Group-wise statistical comparisons between the three groups failed to reveal significant postoperative changes in language performance. Case-by-case data analysis relative to clinically consequential change indices revealed reliable alterations in performance across several language variables as a consequence of BPVP. These findings lend support to models of subcortical participation in language, which promote a role for the GPi in lexical-semantic manipulation mechanisms. Concomitant improvements and decrements in postoperative performance were interpreted within the context of additive and subtractive postlesional effects. Relative to parkinsonian cohorts, clinically reliable versus statistically significant changes on a case by case basis may provide the most accurate method of characterizing the way in which pathophysiologically divergent basal ganglia linguistic circuits respond to BPVP.

Women's satisfaction with general practice consultations

Objective: To determine women's satisfaction with general practice services. Design: Cross-sectional postal questionnaire conducted during April to September 1996 (part of the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health). Participants: Women aged 18-22 (n=14739), 45-49 (n=14013) and 70-74 (n=12941) years, randomly selected from the Medicare database, with oversampling of women from rural and remote areas. Main outcome measures: Frequency of use of general practice services; satisfaction with the most recent visit to a general practitioner (CP), prevalence of selected symptoms; preference for a female doctor. Results: The most recent visit to a GP was rated overall as good, very good or excellent by more than 80% of women, with increasing levels of satisfaction with increasing age of the women. However, satisfaction was lower for waiting room time and cost of the visit. A third of the young and middle-aged women living in rural and remote areas were dissatisfied with the cost of the visit. Young women were more likely to prefer a female doctor, and many were dissatisfied with their GP's skills at explaining their problem and giving them a chance to give an opinion and ask questions. The most prevalent symptoms for all women included headaches and tiredness, and many were not satisfied with the health services available to help them deal with these symptoms. Conclusions: Australian women have high levels of satisfaction with GP consultations. However, more effective strategies may be needed to improve communication with younger women, and there is an unmet need for services to help all women deal with some common symptoms. Dissatisfaction with cost of services and women's preference for female doctors have implications for future health policy.

Truncation errors in finite difference models for solute transport equation with first-order reaction

The truncation errors associated with finite difference solutions of the advection-dispersion equation with first-order reaction are formulated from a Taylor analysis. The error expressions are based on a general form of the corresponding difference equation and a temporally and spatially weighted parametric approach is used for differentiating among the various finite difference schemes. The numerical truncation errors are defined using Peclet and Courant numbers and a new Sink/Source dimensionless number. It is shown that all of the finite difference schemes suffer from truncation errors. Tn particular it is shown that the Crank-Nicolson approximation scheme does not have second order accuracy for this case. The effects of these truncation errors on the solution of an advection-dispersion equation with a first order reaction term are demonstrated by comparison with an analytical solution. The results show that these errors are not negligible and that correcting the finite difference scheme for them results in a more accurate solution. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Phase diagram for a class of spin-1/2 Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice, and the linear-chain limits

We study the spin-1/2 Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations, and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual two-sublattice Neel phase, a three-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wave vector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical. [S0163-1829(99)10421-1].

The continuum of quasi-psychotic beliefs and experiences in the Australian general public

When surveyed, many individuals without psychosis report a range of beliefs and experiences that are shared by patients with psychosis. This study aimed to examine quasi-psychotic beliefs and experiences in a sample of well Australians. 303 individuals were recruited from a defined catchment area as part of the Brisbane Psychosis Study. All subjects were screened with a modified SCAN in order to exclude psychoses. The Peters Delusional Inventory (PDI 40 items), items from the Chapmans' Psychosis Proneness Scale (PPS), the Communication Awareness Scale (CAS: a measure of awareness of thought disorder), items related to perceptions and beliefs from various schizotypy questionnaires and the Social Desirability (SD) items from the EPQ were administered. There was a significant negative correlation between age and total score on the PDI. There were significant positive correlations between the PDI, the PPS, the CAS and the items related to perception. There were no significant gender differences on any of the scores apart from SD (females had higher scores). Those with a positive family history of mental illness other than schizophrenia (n = 118) scored significantly higher on the PDI and scores related to perception, however they were no different on SD or the Psychosis Proneness items. There were no group differences on any of these items when those with a positive family history of schizophrenia (n = 27) were compared to the rest of the group. Well individuals who endorse delusional beliefs also tend to endorse items related to abnormal perceptions and awareness of thought disorder. The results of the study support the concept of a 'continuum of beliefs and experiences' in the general community that should inform our neurocognitive models of the symptoms of psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.