Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Single-chain antibodies produced by phage display against the C-terminal 19 kDa region of merozoite surface protein-1of Plasinodium yoelii reduce parasite growth following challenge

Antibodies have the potential to be therapeutic reagents for malaria. Here we describe the production of a novel phage antibody display library against the C-terminal 19 kDa region of the Plasmodium yoelii YM merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP1(19)). In vivo studies against homologous lethal malaria challenge show an anti-parasite effect in a dose dependent manner, and analysis by plasmon resonance indicates binding to the antigen is comparable to the binding of a protective monoclonal antibody. The data support the lack of a need for any antibody Fc-related function and hold great significance for the development of a therapeutic reagent for malaria. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of gas hold-up distribution measurement in a flotation cell using capturing and conductivity techniques

This paper presents and interprets results of experimental measurements of the spatial gas hold-up distribution in a 3 (3) glass rectangular flotation cell at the JKMRC using two different techniques. The gas hold-up device with the capturing technique was developed at the JKMRC and has been used widely in the P9 project(1) while the one with conductivity technique was developed at the CSIRO Thermal and Fluids Engineering laboratory at Highett, Victoria, Australia. Measurements were conducted at more than 64 locations in the cell to determine the local gas hold-up distribution in the cell. Since the measurements using the two techniques were conducted at the same locations, the results may be compared with each other. The results indicate that the gas hold-up varies widely inside the flotation cell. The gas hold-up distributions measured by the two techniques are relatively similar except in some locations which can be reasonably explained. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extending teaching and learning initiatives in the cross-disciplinary field of biotechnology

Our AUTC Biotechnology study (Phases 1 and 2) identified a range of areas that could benefit from a common approach by universities nationally. A national network of biotechnology educators needs to be solidified through more regular communication, biennial meetings, and development of methods for sharing effective teaching practices and industry placement strategies, for example. Our aims in this proposed study are to: a. Revisit the state of undergraduate biotechnology degree programs nationally to determine their rate of change in content, growth or shrinkage in student numbers (as the biotech industry has had its ups and downs in recent years), and sustainability within their institutions in light of career movements of key personnel, tightening budgets, and governmental funding priorities. b. Explore the feasibility of a range of initiatives to benefit university biotechnology education to determine factors such as how practical each one is, how much buy-in could be gained from potentially participating universities and industry counterparts, and how sustainable such efforts are. One of many such initiatives arising in our AUTC Biotech study was a national register of industry placements for final-year students. c. During scoping and feasibility study, to involve our colleagues who are teaching in biotechnology – and contributing disciplines. Their involvement is meant to yield not only meaningful insight into how to strengthen biotechnology teaching and learning but also to generate ‘buy-in’ on any initiatives that result from this effort.

Context-free and context-sensitive dynamics in recurrent neural networks

Continuous-valued recurrent neural networks can learn mechanisms for processing context-free languages. The dynamics of such networks is usually based on damped oscillation around fixed points in state space and requires that the dynamical components are arranged in certain ways. It is shown that qualitatively similar dynamics with similar constraints hold for a(n)b(n)c(n), a context-sensitive language. The additional difficulty with a(n)b(n)c(n), compared with the context-free language a(n)b(n), consists of 'counting up' and 'counting down' letters simultaneously. The network solution is to oscillate in two principal dimensions, one for counting up and one for counting down. This study focuses on the dynamics employed by the sequential cascaded network, in contrast to the simple recurrent network, and the use of backpropagation through time. Found solutions generalize well beyond training data, however, learning is not reliable. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the dynamics in recurrent neural networks that process context-free languages can also be employed in processing some context-sensitive languages (traditionally thought of as requiring additional computation resources). This continuity of mechanism between language classes contributes to our understanding of neural networks in modelling language learning and processing.

Finite element modelling of rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems

We use the finite element method to simulate the rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we consider the fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated porous rocks. Since the fluid rock interaction takes place at the contact interface between the pore-fluid and solid minerals, it is governed by the chemical reaction which usually takes place very slowly at this contact interface, from the geochemical point of view. Due to the relative slowness of the rate of the chemical reaction to the velocity of the pore-fluid flow in the hydrothermal system to be considered, there exists a retardation zone, in which the conventional static theory in geochemistry does not hold true. Since this issue is often overlooked by some purely numerical modellers, it is emphasized in this paper. The related results from a typical rock alteration and metamorphic problem in a hydrothermal system have shown not only the detailed rock alteration and metamorphic process, but also the size of the retardation zone in the hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of schizophrenia and related disorders

Background: The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists is co-ordinating the development of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) in psychiatry, funded under the National Mental Health Strategy (Australia) and the New Zealand Health Funding Authority. This paper presents CPGs for schizophrenia and related disorders. Over the past decade schizophrenia has become more treatable than ever before. A new generation of drug therapies, a renaissance of psychological and psychosocial interventions and a first generation of reform within the specialist mental health system have combined to create an evidence-based climate of realistic optimism. Progressive neuroscientific advances hold out the strong possibility of more definitive biological treatments in the near future. However, this improved potential for better outcomes and quality of life for people with schizophrenia has not been translated into reality in Australia. The efficacy-effectiveness gap is wider for schizophrenia than any other serious medical disorder. Therapeutic nihilism, under-resourcing of services and a stalling of the service reform process, poor morale within specialist mental health services, a lack of broad-based recovery and life support programs, and a climate of tenacious stigma and consequent lack of concern for people with schizophrenia are the contributory causes for this failure to effectively treat. These guidelines therefore tackle only one element in the endeavour to reduce the impact of schizophrenia. They distil the current evidence-base and make recommendations based on the best available knowledge. Method: A comprehensive literature review (1990-2003) was conducted, including all Cochrane schizophrenia reviews and all relevant meta-analyses, and a number of recent international clinical practice guidelines were consulted. A series of drafts were refined by the expert committee and enhanced through a bi-national consultation process. Treatment recommendations: This guideline provides evidence-based recommendations for the management of schizophrenia by treatment type and by phase of illness. The essential features of the guidelines are: (i) Early detection and comprehensive treatment of first episode cases is a priority since the psychosocial and possibly the biological impact of illness can be minimized and outcome improved. An optimistic attitude on the part of health professionals is an essential ingredient from the outset and across all phases of illness. (ii) Comprehensive and sustained intervention should be assured during the initial 3-5 years following diagnosis since course of illness is strongly influenced by what occurs in this 'critical period'. Patients should not have to 'prove chronicity' before they gain consistent access and tenure to specialist mental health services. (iii) Antipsychotic medication is the cornerstone of treatment. These medicines have improved in quality and tolerability, yet should be used cautiously and in a more targeted manner than in the past. The treatment of choice for most patients is now the novel antipsychotic medications because of their superior tolerability and, in particular, the reduced risk of tardive dyskinesia. This is particularly so for the first episode patient where, due to superior tolerability, novel agents are the first, second and third line choice. These novel agents are nevertheless associated with potentially serious medium to long-term side-effects of their own for which patients must be carefully monitored. Conventional antipsychotic medications in low dosage may still have a role in a small proportion of patients, where there has been full remission and good tolerability; however, the indications are shrinking progressively. These principles are now accepted in most developed countries. (vi) Clozapine should be used early in the course, as soon as treatment resistance to at least two antipsychotics has been demonstrated. This usually means incomplete remission of positive symptomatology, but clozapine may also be considered where there are pervasive negative symptoms or significant or persistent suicidal risk is present. (v) Comprehensive psychosocial interventions should be routinely available to all patients and their families, and provided by appropriately trained mental health professionals with time to devote to the task. This includes family interventions, cognitive-behaviour therapy, vocational rehabilitation and other forms of therapy, especially for comorbid conditions, such as substance abuse, depression and anxiety. (vi) The social and cultural environment of people with schizophrenia is an essential arena for intervention. Adequate shelter, financial security, access to meaningful social roles and availability of social support are essential components of recovery and quality of life. (vii) Interventions should be carefully tailored to phase and stage of illness, and to gender and cultural background. (viii) Genuine involvement of consumers and relatives in service development and provision should be standard. (ix) Maintenance of good physical health and prevention and early treatment of serious medical illness has been seriously neglected in the management of schizophrenia, and results in premature death and widespread morbidity. Quality of medical care for people with schizophrenia should be equivalent to the general community standard. (x) General practitioners (GPs)s should always be closely involved in the care of people with schizophrenia. However, this should be truly shared care, and sole care by a GP with minimal or no special Optimal treatment of schizophrenia requires a multidisciplinary team approach with a consultant psychiatrist centrally involved.

The effect of emotional and attentional processes on blink startle modulation and on electrodermal responses

Emotional accounts of startle modulation predict that startle is facilitated if elicited during aversive foreground stimuli. Attentional accounts hold that startle is enhanced if startle-eliciting stimulus and foreground stimulus are in the same modality. Visual and acoustic foreground stimuli and acoustic startle probes were employed in aversive differential conditioning and in a stimulus discrimination task. Differential conditioning was evident in electrodermal responses and blink latency shortening in both modalities, but effects on magnitude facilitation were found only for visual stimuli. In the discrimination task, skin conductance responses, blink latency shortening, and blink magnitude facilitation were larger during to-be-attended stimuli regardless of stimulus modality. The present results support the notion that attention and emotion can affect blink startle modulation during foreground stimuli.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

Postural control of the trunk in response to lateral support surface translations during trunk movement and loading

The postural response to translation of the support surface may be influenced by the performance of an ongoing voluntary task. This study was designed to test this proposal by applying lateral perturbations while subjects handled a load in the frontal plane. Measurements were made of medio-lateral displacement of the centre of pressure, angular displacement of the trunk and thigh in the frontal plane and intra-abdominal pressure. Subjects were translated randomly to the left and right in a variety of conditions that involved standing either quietly or with a 5 kg load in their left hand, which they were required either to hold statically or to lift or lower. The results indicate that when the perturbation occurred towards the loaded left side the subjects were able to return their centre of pressure, trunk and thigh rapidly and accurately to the initial position. However, when the perturbation occurred towards the right (away from the load) this correction was delayed and associated with multiple changes in direction of movement, suggesting decreased efficiency of the postural response. This reduced efficiency can be explained by a conflict between the motor commands for the ongoing voluntary task and the postural response, and/or by the mechanical effect of the asymmetrical addition of load to the trunk.

Religious beliefs and practice, and alcohol use in Thai men

Buddhism, the Thai state religion, teaches that use of intoxicants should be avoided. Nonetheless, many Thai people drink alcohol, and a proportion are alcohol-dependent or hazardous or harmful drinkers. This study examines the relationship between Buddhist upbringing and beliefs and alcohol use disorders in Thai men. Three groups, comprising 144 non/infrequent/light drinkers, 77 hazardous/harmful drinkers and 91 alcohol dependents were inter-viewed regarding their early religious life and current religious practices and beliefs. No protective association was shown between early religious life and later alcohol use disorders, indeed, having lived as a buy in a temple for a period was commoner in those with adult alcohol problems. Few subjects reported frequent involvement in current religious activities (9, 8 and 6% in the non/infrequent/light drinkers, hazardous/harmful drinkers, and alcohol dependents respectively). Hazardous/harmful drinkers [odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, 95% confidence interval (0) = 0.2-0.9] and alcohol dependents (OR = 0.5, 95% Cl = 0.2-0.9) were less likely to report being moderately to strongly religious, than were non/infrequent/light drinkers, Understanding the association between religious beliefs and drinking behaviour can potentially assist in the development of prevention and treatment programmes.

Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.