Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

Introduction: Arguments for a more grounded approach in management education

The article mentions the aims and objectives of the "Academy of Management Learning & Education" and introduces four essays in this issue. Milton R. Blood focuses on the role of business schools in generating actionable knowledge. Peter Navarro asserts that macroeconomics is necessary in MBA programs. Scott Julian and Joseph C. Ofori-Dankwa comment on business school accreditation and competition status. Michael Harmon offers an argument that competition status is negatively affecting research, teaching, and social objectives.

Common multiples of complete graphs and a 4-cycle

A graph G is a common multiple of two graphs H-1 and H-2 if there exists a decomposition of G into edge-disjoint copies of H-1 and also a decomposition of G into edge-disjoint copies of H-2. In this paper, we consider the case where H-1 is the 4-cycle C-4 and H-2 is the complete graph with n vertices K-n. We determine, for all positive integers n, the set of integers q for which there exists a common multiple of C-4 and K-n having precisely q edges. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The extended metamorphosis of a complete bipartite design into a cycle system

A K-t,K-t-design of order n is an edge-disjoint decomposition of K-n into copies of K-t,K-t. When t is odd, an extended metamorphosis of a K-t,K-t-design of order n into a 2t-cycle system of order n is obtained by taking (t - 1)/2 edge-disjoint cycles of length 2t from each K-t,K-t block, and rearranging all the remaining 1-factors in each K-t,K-t block into further 2t-cycles. The 'extended' refers to the fact that as many subgraphs isomorphic to a 2t-cycle as possible are removed from each K-t,K-t block, rather than merely one subgraph. In this paper an extended metamorphosis of a K-t,K-t-design of order congruent to 1 (mod 4t(2)) into a 2t-cycle system of the same order is given for all odd t > 3. A metamorphosis of a 2-fold K-t,K-t-design of any order congruent to 1 (mod 4t(2)) into a 2t-cycle system of the same order is also given, for all odd t > 3. (The case t = 3 appeared in Ars Combin. 64 (2002) 65-80.) When t is even, the graph K-t,K-t is easily seen to contain t/2 edge-disjoint cycles of length 2t, and so the metamorphosis in that case is straightforward. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some equitably 3-colourable cycle decompositions

Let G be a graph in which each vertex has been coloured using one of k colours, say c(1), c(2),..., c(k). If an m-cycle C in G has n(i) vertices coloured c(i), i = 1, 2,..., k, and (i) - n(j) less than or equal to 1 for any i, j is an element of {1, 2,..., k}, then C is equitably k-coloured. An m-cycle decomposition C of a graph G is equitably k-colourable if the vertices of G can be coloured so that every m-cycle in C is equitably k-coloured. For m = 4,5 and 6, we completely settle the existence problem for equitably 3-colourable m-cycle decompositions of complete graphs and complete graphs with the edges of a 1-factor removed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Configurations in 4-cycle systems

A 4-cycle system of order n, denoted by 4CS(n), exists if and only if nequivalent to1 (mod 8). There are four configurations which can be formed by two 4-cycles in a 4CS(n). Formulas connecting the number of occurrences of each such configuration in a 4CS(n) are given. The number of occurrences of each configuration is determined completely by the number d of occurrences of the configuration D consisting of two 4-cycles sharing a common diagonal. It is shown that for every nequivalent to1 (mod 8) there exists a 4CS(n) which avoids the configuration D, i.e. for which d=0. The exact upper bound for d in a 4CS(n) is also determined.

Applying ontologies to business and systems modelling techniques and perspectives: Lessons learned

For many years in the area of business systems analysis and design, practitioners and researchers alike have been searching for some comprehensive basis on which to evaluate, compare, and engineer techniques that are promoted for use in the modelling of systems' requirements. To date, while many frameworks, factors, and facets have been forthcoming, none appear to be based on a sound theory. In light of this dilemma, over the last 10 years, attention has been devoted by researchers to the use of ontology to provide some theoretical basis for the advancement of the business systems modelling discipline. This paper outlines how we have used a particular ontology for this purpose over the last five years. In particular we have learned that the understandability and the applicability of the selected ontology must be clear for IS professionals, the results of any ontological evaluation must be tempered by economic efficiency considerations of the stakeholders involved, and ontologies may have to be focused for the business purpose and type of user involved in the modelling situation.

Experience as a moderator of involvement and satisfaction on brand loyalty in a business-to-business setting 02-314R

This paper examines the relative influence of two key antecedents of brand loyalty-satisfaction and involvement and the moderating role of experience, using a sample of business buyers. The central argument of this paper is that the strength of the effect of these variables on attitudinal brand loyalty will vary with the level of customer experience with purchasing the service. Building on previous research which examined low-risk, customer product settings [Kim, J., Lim, J.S., & Bhargava, M. (1998). The role of affect in attitude formation: A classical conditioning approach. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 26 (2): pp. 143-152; Shiv, B., & Fedorikhin, A. (1999). Heart and mind in conflict: The interplay of affect and cognition in consumer decision-making. Journal of Consumer Research 26: 278], this study shows that for a high-risk setting, involvement with the service category will be more dominant in its influence on brand loyalty than satisfaction with the preferred brand. Furthermore, it was found that experience moderated the influence of involvement and satisfaction on attitudinal brand loyalty for a high-risk business-to-business service. This study provides new insights into the theory and practice of buyer behavior and business-to-business brands. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Some equitably 3-colourable cycle decompositions of complete equipartite graphs

Let G be a graph in which each vertex has been coloured using one of k colours, say c(1), c(2),.. , c(k). If an m-cycle C in G has n(i) vertices coloured c(i), i = 1, 2,..., k, and vertical bar n(i) - n(j)vertical bar <= 1 for any i, j is an element of {1, 2,..., k}, then C is said to be equitably k-coloured. An m-cycle decomposition C of a graph G is equitably k-colourable if the vertices of G can be coloured so that every m-cycle in W is equitably k-coloured. For m = 3, 4 and 5 we completely settle the existence question for equitably 3-colourable m-cycle decompositions of complete equipartite graphs. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Embedding partial G-designs where G is a 4-cycle with a pendant edge

Let D denote the graph consisting of a cycle of length 4 with a pendant edge. In this paper, two very different small embeddings of partial D-designs are presented. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.