The upper Paleozoic miospore genus Spelaeotriletes Neves and Owens, 1966, and constituent Gondwanan species

The upper Paleozoic miospore genus Spelaeotriletes Neves and Owens, 1966 is reviewed as a morpho-taxonomic entity and vis-a-vis other similarly constructed (pseudosaccate) genera - Geminospora Balme, 1962, Grandispora Hoffmeister, Staplin, and Malloy, 1955, Rhabdosporites Richardson, 1960, and Retispora Staplin, 1960. Detailed studies of numerous, mainly topotype specimens of Spelaeotriletes ybertii (Marques-Toigo, 1970) Playford and Powis, 1979 from the Lower Permian of Uruguay result in its re-diagnosis, in conjunction with a survey of its exclusively Gondwanan occurrences, particularly in South American strata extending from the Upper Carboniferous (Westphalian) into the Lower Permian, and also in Australian strata of approximately equivalent age. The characteristics of other species of Spelaeotriletes reported from upper Paleozoic deposits of Gondwana are discussed, as are their temporal representations in various broad regions of the supercontinent (South America, North Africa, Australia). These species include two, perhaps three, that, like Spelaeotriletes triangulus/arenaceus, are known also from Euramerica - S. balteatus (Playford, 1963) Higgs, 1996, S. pretiosus (Playford, 1964) Utting, 1987, and possibly S. owensii Loboziak and Alpern, 1978. Other species, such as S. benghaziensis Loboziak and Clayton, 1988, S. giganteus Loboziak and Clayton, 1988, and S. vibrissus Playford and Satterthwait, 1988, have, on present knowledge, exclusively Gondwanan occurrences. S. queenslandensis Jones and Truswell. 1992, known only from Upper Carboniferous strata of northeastern Australia, is formally reassigned on sculptural grounds to Grandispora. Not unexpectedly in a paleogeographic perspective, North Africa and South America are more closely allied with each other than with Australia in terms of shared species of Spelaeotriletes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resources for security and stability? The politics of regional cooperation on the Mekong, 1957-2001

This article tells about the relationship between resource politics and security in international relations. Using the Mekong River Basin as its case study, the article examines the place of resource and development issues in attempts to develop regional institutions. The question of whether a resource development regime with apparently low productivity in terms of technical output, but high levels of resilience and longevity, should be considered a failure or not, is considered. This question is examined within the broader context of Southeast Asian politics during the First, Second, and Third Indochina conflicts as well as the post-cold war era. The article argues that survival and a capacity to change to meet the challenges of extreme broader events are clear evidence of regime success. From this standpoint, the article explores ways in which the Mekong resource regime is linked to more general concerns for political security and stability and may in fact reflect political concerns for subregional neighborhood maintenance.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.