An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cloning and functional analysis of the Sry-related HMG box gene, Sox18

The Sox gene family (Sry like HMG box gene) is characterised by a conserved DNA sequence encoding a domain of approximately 80 amino acids which is responsible for sequence specific DNA binding. We initially published the identification and partial cDNA sequence of murine Sox18, a new member of this gene family, isolated from a cardiac cDNA library. This sequence allowed us to classify Sox18 into the F sub-group of Sox proteins, along with Sox7 and Sox17. Recently, we demonstrated that mutations in the Sox18 activation domain underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defects in the mouse mutation, ragged (Ra) (Pennisi et al., 2000. Mutations in Sox18 underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defecs in ragged mice. Nat. Genet. 24, 434-437). Ra homozygotes lack vibrissae and coat hairs, have generalised oedema and an accumulation of chyle in the peritoneum. Here we have investigated the genomic sequences encoding Sox18. Screening of a mouse genomic phage library identified four overlapping clones, we sequenced a 3.25 kb XbaI fragment that defined the entire coding region and approximately 1.5 kb of 5' flanking sequences. This identified (i) an additional 91 amino acids upstream of the previously designated methionine start codon in the original cDNA, and (ii);ln intron encoded within the HMG box/DNA binding domain in exactly the same position as that found in the Sox5, -13 and -17 genes. The Sox18 gene encodes a protein of 468 aa. We present evidence that suggests HAF-2, the human HMG-box activating factor-2 protein, is the orthologue of murine Sox18. HAF-2 has been implicated in the regulation of the Human IgH enhancer in a B cell context. Random mutagenesis coupled with GAL4 hybrid analysis in the activation domain between amino acids 252 and 346, of Sox18, implicated the phosphorylation motif, SARS, and the region between amino acid residues 313 and 346 as critical components of Sox18 mediated transactivation. Finally, we examined the expression of Sox18 in multiple adult mouse tissues using RT-PCR. Low-moderate expression was observed in spleen, stomach, kidney, intestine, skeletal muscle and heart. Very abundant expression was detected in lung tissue. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The VCAM-1 gene that encodes the vascular cell adhesion molecule is a target of the Sry-related high mobility group box gene, Sox18

VCAM-1 (vascular cell adhesion molecule-1) and Sox18 are involved in vascular development. VCAM-1 is an important adhesion molecule that is expressed on endothelial cells and has a critical role in endothelial activation, inflammation, lymphatic pathophysiology, and atherogenesis. The Sry-related high mobility group box factor Sox18 has previously been implicated in endothelial pathologies. Mutations in human and mouse Sox18 leads to hypotrichosis and lymphedema. Furthermore, both Sox18 and VCAM-1 have very similar spatio-temporal patterns of expression, which is suggestive of crosstalk. We use biochemical techniques, cell culture systems, and the ragged opossum (RaOP) mouse model with a naturally occurring mutation in Sox18 to demonstrate that VCAM-1 is an important target of Sox18. Transfection, site-specific mutagenesis, and gel shift analyses demonstrated that Sox18 directly targeted and trans-activated VCAM-1 expression. Importantly, the naturally occurring Sox18 mutant attenuates the expression and activation of VCAM-1 in vitro. Furthermore, in vivo quantitation of VCAM-1 mRNA levels in wild type and RaOP mice demonstrates that RaOP animals show a dramatic and significant reduction in VCAM-1 mRNA expression in lung, skin, and skeletal muscle. Our observation that the VCAM-1 gene is an important target of SOX18 provides the first molecular insights into the vascular abnormalities in the mouse mutant ragged and the human hypotrichosis-lymphedematelangiectasia disorder.