Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential interactions between humans and non-breeding shorebirds on a subtropical intertidal flat

The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether bait harvesting, with all its inherent effects, occurring in the intertidal zone of a subtropical estuary, had an impact on a migratory shorebird, the eastern curlew Numenius madagascariensis. In a large-scale manipulative study (units of experiment were 1 ha plots), callianassid shrimp Trypaea australiensis populations were harvested simulating the technique (manual pumping) and the levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (347 shrimp per hectare per harvesting event) exhibited by bait-collectors in SE Australia and South Africa. It was found that at present levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (approximately 1% of standing stock removed per harvesting event) there is no threat to the stocks of Trypaea exploited by the curlews in Moreton Bay, Australia. However, the results show that the curlews themselves apply a considerable predation pressure on Trypaea. Based on the birds' foraging rates and densities, it was estimated that they would consume up to 100% of the initial Trypaea stock over the course of a non-breeding season (October to March). However, the stable seasonal trend in the density of the size-cohort of Trypaea preyed upon by the curlews indicates that the existing rates of predation are easily counterbalanced, e.g. through continuous density-dependent recruitment of these crustaceans. We suggest that this mechanism will provide for a stable foraging environment for both the shorebirds and bait collectors.

Undular tidal bore dynamics in the Daly Estuary, Northern Australia

Measurements in the macro-tidal Daly Estuary show that the presence of an undular tidal bore contributed negligibly to the dissipation of tidal energy. No recirculation bubble was observed between a trough and the following wave crest in the lee waves following the undular bore. This differs to stationary undular bores in laboratory experiments at larger Froude numbers where a recirculation bubble exists. Secondary motions and the turbulence generated by the undular bore had no measurable influence on the sediment transport. This situation contrasts with the intense sediment resuspension observed in breaking tidal bores. The tidally averaged sediment budget in the Daly Estuary was controlled by the asymmetry of tidal currents. The undular bore may widen the river by breaking along the banks that it undercuts, leading to bank slippage. A patch of river-wide macro-turbulence of 3-min duration occurred about 20 min after the passage of the bore during accelerating tidal currents. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterisation of sea-water intrusion in the Pioneer Valley, Australia using hydrochemistry and three-dimensional numerical modelling

Sea-water intrusion is actively contaminating fresh groundwater reserves in the coastal aquifers of the Pioneer Valley,north-eastern Australia. A three-dimensional sea-water intrusion model has been developed using the MODHMS code to explore regional-scale processes and to aid assessment of management strategies for the system. A sea-water intrusion potential map, produced through analyses of the hydrochemistry, hydrology and hydrogeology, offsets model limitations by providing an alternative appraisal of susceptibility. Sea-water intrusion in the Pioneer Valley is not in equilibrium, and a potential exists for further landward shifts in the extent of saline groundwater. The model required consideration of tidal over-height (the additional hydraulic head at the coast produced by the action of tides), with over-height values in the range 0.5-0.9 m giving improved water-table predictions. The effect of the initial water-table condition dominated the sensitivity of the model to changes in the coastal hydraulic boundary condition. Several salination processes are probably occurring in the Pioneer Valley, rather than just simple landward sea-water advancement from modern sources of marine salts. The method of vertical discretisation (i.e. model-layer subdivision) was shown to introduce some errors in the prediction of watertable behaviour.

Brisbane Airport: An alluvial landscape veiled by marine sediments

At Brisbane Airport, the construction of a diversion channel for Kedron Brook exposed a former beach, low cliff and sand spit, which, with their associated sediments and acid sulfate soils, demonstrate a postglacial high sea-level 1.3 - 1.4 m above present mean sea-level. The beach appears to date from 4000 to 5000 y BP. It varies in level where it lies above soft ground; these variations, and sag depressions that follow buried streamlines, indicate sediment consolidation since withdrawal of the sea from the former shore. Most of the area consists of former estuarine deposits, mangrove and saline marshes, and stranded tidal flats on which acid sulfate soils are widely developed. The modern landforms mostly reproduce subsurface features, to the extent that the surface relief replicates the landscape transgressed by the sea 7000 years ago. A small rise of sea-level possibly to +0.65 m occurred about 2000-3000 years ago. Foredunes near the present shore that are related to a slightly lower level 1000 - 500 years ago (-0.25 m) are currently subject to wave erosion.

Assessing the influence and distribution of shrimp pond effluent in a tidal mangrove creek in north-east Australia

Effluent from a land based shrimp farm was detected in a receiving creek as changes in physical, chemical and biological parameters. The extent and severity of these changes depended on farm operations. This assessment was conducted at three different stages of shrimp-pond maturity, including (1) when the ponds were empty, (2) full and (3) being harvested. Methods for assessing farm effluent in receiving waters included physical/chemical analyses of the water column, phytoplankton bioassays and nitrogen isotope signatures of marine flora. Comparisons were made with an adjacent creek that served as the farms intake creek and did not directly receive effluent. Physical/chemical parameters identified distinct changes in the receiving creek with respect to farm operations. Elevated water column NH4+ (18.5+/-8.0 muM) and chlorophyll a concentrations (5.5+/-1.9 mug/l) were measured when the farm was in operation, in contrast to when the farm was inactive (1.3+/-0.3 muM and 1.2+/-0.6 mug/l, respectively). At all times, physically chemical parameters at the mouth of the effluent creek, were equivalent to control values, indicating effluent was contained within the effluent-receiving creek. However, elevated delta(15)N signatures of mangroves (up to similar to8parts per thousand) and macroalgae (up to similar to5parts per thousand) indicated a broader influence of shrimp farm effluent, extending to the lower regions of the farms intake creek. Bioassays at upstream sites close to the location of farm effluent discharge indicated that phytoplankton at these sites did not respond to further nutrient additions, however downstream sites showed large growth responses. This suggested that further nutrient loading from the shrimp farm, resulting in greater nutrient dispersal, will increase the extent of phytoplankton blooms downstream from the site of effluent discharge. When shrimp ponds were empty water quality in the effluent and intake creeks was comparable. This indicated that observed elevated nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations were directly attributable to farm operations. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Use of pulse transit time to distinguish respiratory events from tidal breathing in sleeping children

Study objectives: Currently, esophageal pressure monitoring is the "gold standard" measure for inspiratory efforts, hut its invasive nature necessitates a better tolerated and noninvasive method to be used on children. Pulse transit time (PTT) has demonstrated its potential as a noninvasive surrogate marker for inspiratory efforts. The principle velocity determinant of PTT is the change in stiffness of the arterial wall and is inversely correlated to BP. Moreover, PTT has been shown to identify changes in inspiratory effort via the BP fluctuations induced by negative pleural pressure swings. In this study, the capability of PTT to classify respiratory, events during sleep as either central or obstructive in nature was investigated. Setting and participants: PTT measure was used in adjunct to routine overnight polysomnographic studies performed on 33 children (26 boys and 7 girls; mean +/- SD age, 6.7 +/- 3.9 years). The accuracy of PTT measurements was then evaluated against scored corresponding respiratory events in the polysomnography recordings. Results: Three hundred thirty-four valid respiratory events occurred and were analyzed. One hundred twelve obstructive events (OEs) showed a decrease in mean PTT over a 10-sample window that had a probability of being correctly ranked below the baseline PTT during tidal breathing of 0.92 (p < 0.005); 222 central events (CEs) showed a decrease in the variance of PTT over a 10-sample window that had a probability of being ranked below the baseline PTT of 0.94 (p < 0.005). This indicates that, at a sensitivity of 0.90, OEs can be detected with a specificity of 0.82 and CEs can be detected with a specificity of 0.80. Conclusions: PTT is able to categorize CEs and OEs accordingly in the absence of motion artifacts, including hypopneas. Hence, PTT shows promise to differentiate respiratory, events accordingly and can be an important diagnostic tool in pediatric respiratory sleep studies.< 0.005); 222 central events (CEs) showed a decrease in the variance of PTT over a 10-sample window that had a probability of being ranked below the baseline PTT of 0.94 (p < 0.005). This indicates that, at a sensitivity of 0.90, OEs can be detected with a specificity of 0.82 and CEs can be detected with a specificity of 0.80. Conclusions: PTT is able to categorize CEs and OEs accordingly in the absence of motion artifacts, including hypopneas. Hence, PTT shows promise to differentiate respiratory, events accordingly and can be an important diagnostic tool in pediatric respiratory sleep studies.');"

Mud, algae or seagrass: An assessment of remote sensing techniques for mapping inter-tidal seagrass cover and composition in turbid tropical environments

Large areas of tropical sub- and inter-tidal seagrass beds occur in highly turbid environments and cannot be mapped through the water column. The purpose of this project was to determine if and how airborne and satellite imaging systems could be used to map inter-tidal seagrass properties along the wet-tropics coast in north Queensland, Australia. The work aimed to: (1) identify the minimum level of seagrass foliage cover that could be detected from airborne and satellite imagery; and (2) define the minimum detectable differences in seagrass foliage cover in exposed intertidal seagrass beds. High resolution spectral-reflectance data (2040 bands, 350 – 2500nm) were collected over 40cm diameter plots from 240 sites on Magnetic Island, Pallarenda Beach and Green Island in North Queensland at spring low tides in April 2006. The seagrass species sampled were: Thalassia hemprechii, Halophila ovalis, Halodule uninerivs; Syringodium isoetifolium, Cymodocea serrulata, and Cymodoea rotundata. Digital photos were captured for each plot and used to derive estimates of seagrass species cover, epiphytic growth, micro- and macro-algal cover, and substrate colour. Sediment samples were also collected and analysed to measure the concentration of Chlorophyll-a associated with benthic micro-algae. The field reflectance spectra were analysed in combination with their corresponding seagrass species foliage cover levels to establish the minimum foliage projective cover required for each seagrass to be significantly different from bare substrate and substrate with algal cover. This analysis was repeated with reflectance spectra resampled to the bandpass functions of Quickbird, Ikonos, SPOT 5 and Landsat 7 ETM. Preliminary results indicate that conservative minimum detectable seagrass cover levels across most the species sampled were between 30%- 35% on dark substrates. Further analysis of these results will be conducted to determine their separability and satellite images and to assess the effects epiphytes and algal cover.