27 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off
em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia
Resumo:
An important functional and evolutionary constraint on the physical performance of vertebrates is believed to be the trade-off between speed and endurance capacity. However, despite the pervasiveness of physiological arguments, most studies have found no evidence of the trade-off when tested at the whole-animal level. We investigated the existence of this trade-off at the whole-muscle level, the presumed site of this physiological conflict, by examining inter-individual variation in both maximum power output and fatigue resistance for mouse extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscle using the work-loop technique. We found negative correlations between several measures of in vitro maximum power output and force production with fatigue resistance for individual mouse EDL muscles, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance parameters. We suggest that this trade-off detected at the whole-muscle level has imposed an important constraint on the evolution of vertebrate physical performance.
Resumo:
The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.
Resumo:
Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.
Resumo:
and human capital externalities. Because of such externalities, education investment is too low and fertility is too high. While education subsidies are the conventional means to deal with these problems, we show that the optimal policy also comprises debt even when distortionary taxes are used. The reason is that debt tips the usual trade-off between children's quantity and quality in favor of the latter by increasing the bequest cost of children. The optimal debt-output ratio exceeds 10% for plausible parameterization. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper we investigate the trade-off faced by regulators who must set a price for an intermediate good somewhere between the marginal cost and the monopoly price. We utilize a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods. Investment in innovation is required to produce a new intermediate good. Marginal cost pricing deters innovation, while monopoly pricing maximizes innovation and economic growth at the cost of some static inefficiency. We demonstrate the existence of a second-best price above the marginal cost but below the monopoly price, which maximizes consumer welfare. Simulation results suggest that substantial reductions in consumption, production, growth, and welfare occur where regulators focus on static efficiency issues by setting prices at or near marginal cost.
Resumo:
The eyes of most diurnal reptiles and birds contain coloured retinal filters-oil droplets. Although these filters are widespread, their adaptive advantage remains uncertain. To understand why coloured oil droplets appeared and were retained during evolution, I consider both the benefits and the costs of light filtering in the retina. Oil droplets decrease cone quantum catch and reduce the overlap in sensitivity between spectrally adjacent cones. The reduction of spectral overlap increases the volume occupied by object colours in a cone space, whereas the decrease in quantum catch increases noise, and thus reduces the discriminability of similar colours. The trade-off between these two effects determines the total benefit of oil droplets. Calculations show that coloured oil droplets increase the number of object colours that can be discriminated, and thus are beneficial for colour vision.
Resumo:
We examined the genetic basis of clinal adaptation by determining the evolutionary response of life-history traits to laboratory natural selection along a gradient of thermal stress in Drosophila serrata. A gradient of heat stress was created by exposing larvae to a heat stress of 36degrees for 4 hr for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 days of larval development, with the remainder of development taking place at 25degrees. Replicated lines were exposed to each level of this stress every second generation for 30 generations. At the end of selection, we conducted a complete reciprocal transfer experiment where all populations were raised in all environments, to estimate the realized additive genetic covariance matrix among clinal environments in three life-history traits. Visualization of the genetic covariance functions of the life-history traits revealed that the genetic correlation between environments generally declined as environments became more different and even became negative between the most different environments in some cases. One exception to this general pattern was a life-history trait representing the classic trade-off between development time and body size, which responded to selection in a similar genetic fashion across all environments. Adaptation to clinal environments may involve a number of distinct genetic effects along the length of the cline, the complexity of which may not be fully revealed by focusing primarily on populations at the ends of the cline.
Resumo:
Objectives: This pilot study describes a modelling approach to translate group-level changes in health status into changes in preference values, by using the effect size (ES) to summarize group-level improvement. Methods: ESs are the standardized mean difference between treatment groups in standard deviation (SD) units. Vignettes depicting varying severity in SD decrements on the SF-12 mental health summary scale, with corresponding symptom severity profiles, were valued by a convenience sample of general practitioners (n = 42) using the rating scale (RS) and time trade-off methods. Translation factors between ES differences and change in preference value were developed for five mental disorders, such that ES from published meta-analyses could be transformed into predicted changes in preference values. Results: An ES difference in health status was associated with an average 0.171-0.204 difference in preference value using the RS, and 0.104-0.158 using the time trade off. Conclusions: This observed relationship may be particular to the specific versions of the measures employed in the present study. With further development using different raters and preference measures, this approach may expand the evidence base available for modelling preference change for economic analyses from existing data.
Resumo:
Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore methods of determining an appropriate caseload for mental health case managers. Method: Seven factors that may impinge on case manager performance and impact on caseload were identified, having reference to published literature and service practice in Victoria and Queensland. The advantages and disadvantages of including these factors in a caseload index were evaluated. Results: Three caseload index methodologies are presented. Each method makes use of different data and has advantages and disadvantages. There is a trade-off between simplicity and ease of application and the comprehensive use of relevant information. Methods vary in their implications for service efficiency and equity in workload distribution. Conclusions: Caseload is a key issue in service planning and staff management. Factors that have the potential to contribute to caseload can be readily identified. However, there is likely to be disagreement as to the weight assigned to any factor and the approach taken may depend on the purpose and context of the caseload calculation. A great deal more research is required to provide an empirical basis for algorithms used in caseload calculation.
Resumo:
The interaction between the growth of flexible forms of employment and employer funded training is important for understanding labour market performance. In particular, the idea of a trade-off has been advanced to describe potential market failures in the employment of flexible workers. This study finds that evidence of a trade-off is apparent in both the incidence and intensity of employer funded training. Flexible workers receive training that is 50-80% less intense than the workforce average. Casual workers - especially males - suffer more acutely from the trade-off. This suggests that flexible production externalities may seriously reduce human capital formation in the workforce.
Resumo:
This paper introduces the rank-dependent quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model, a new method to aggregate QALYs in economic evaluations of health care. The rank-dependent QALY model permits the formalization of influential concepts of equity in the allocation of health care, such as the fair innings approach, and it includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature. An important advantage of the rank-dependent QALY model is that it offers a straightforward procedure to estimate equity weights for QALYs. We characterize the rank-dependent QALY model and argue that its central condition has normative appeal. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Using a Radial Guide Field Matching Method, an investigation is performed into reducing the height of an electronically steered circular array of monopole antennas composed of a central active element surrounded by passive elements being either short- or open-circuited. It is shown that a considerable height reduction can be achieved using top hats attached to monopoles ends and by applying dielectric coating underneath the top hats. The trade-off in achieving height reduction is narrower impedance bandwidth.
Resumo:
This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.
Resumo:
During metamorphosis, most amphibians undergo rapid shifts in their morphology that allow them to move from an aquatic to a more terrestrial existence. Two important challenges associated with this shift in habitat are the necessity to switch from an aquatic to terrestrial mode of locomotion and changes in the thermal environment. In this study, I investigated the consequences of metamorphosis to the burst swimming and running performance of the European newt Triturus cristatus to determine the nature and magnitude of any locomotor trade-offs that occur across life-history stages. In addition, I investigated whether there were any shifts in the thermal dependence of performance between life-history stages of T. cristatus to compensate for changes in their thermal environment during metamorphosis. A trade-off between swimming and running performance was detected across life-history stages, with metamorphosis resulting in a simultaneous decrease in swimming and increase in running performance. Although the terrestrial habitat of postmetamorphic stages of the newt T. cristatus experienced greater daily fluctuations in temperature than the aquatic habitat of the larval stage, no differences in thermal sensitivity of locomotor performance were detected between the larval aquatic and postmetamorphic stages. The absence of variation across life-history stages of T. cristatus may indicate that thermal sensitivity may be a conservative trait across ontogenetic stages in amphibians, but further studies are required to investigate this assertion.