A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Changes in cigarette smoking among adults in 35 populations in the mid-1980s

Objective-To examine changes in the prevalence of cigarette smoking in 35 study populations of the World Health Organisation's MONICA Project. Design-Data from two independent, community-based surveys conducted, on average, five years apart. Setting-Geographically defined populations in 21 countries mainly in eastern and western Europe. Subjects-Randomly selected men and women aged 25-64 years. Numbers of participants in each study population ranged from 586 to 2817 in each survey. Main outcome measures-Changes in proportions of current smokers, ex-smokers, and never-smokers by age and sex using data collected by standardised methods. Results-Among men, smoking prevalence decreased in most populations, by three to four percentage points over five years. In Beijing, however, it increased in all age groups-overall by 11 percentage points. Among women there were increases in smoking in about half the populations. The increases were mainly in the age group 35-54 years and often in those populations where smoking prevalence among women has been relatively low. Conclusions-Smoking initiation by middle-aged women in parts of southern and eastern Europe and among men of all ages in Beijing is a matter of concern. The various public health measures that have helped to reduce smoking among men in developed countries should be vigorously extended to these other groups now at growing risk of smoking-related disease.

Ecotourism in China's Nature Reserves

This chapter provides an overview of ecotourism in China, including relevant policy, issues, and trends. Most concepts and definitions of ecotourism can be reduced to the following: ecotourism is tourism and recreation that is both nature based and sustainable. The focus of this chapter is on visitation at nature reserves in China. Issues relevant to sustainability and ecotourism objectives are noted in the chapter, and the need for ongoing development of policy and management systems is stressed in order to enhance future achievement of these objectives.

Trends in cigarette smoking in 36 populations from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s: Findings from the WHO MONICA Project

Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease). Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations. Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed. Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.

Characterization of mouse Frizzled-3 expression in hair follicle development and identification of the human homolog in keratinocytes

Frizzled genes encode a family of Wnt ligand receptors, which have a conserved cysteine-rich Wnt binding domain and include both transmembrane and secreted forms. Work by others has shown that experimental perturbation of Wnt signaling results in aberrant hair formation, hair growth, and hair structure. To date, however, there is no information on the contribution of individual Frizzled proteins to hair development. We now report that Frizzled-3 expression in skin is restricted to the epidermis and to the developing hair follicle. Northern analysis on total mouse skin mRNA revealed a single Frizzled-3 transcript of 3.7 kb. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and in situ hybridization analysis revealed Frizzled-3 expression in epidermal and hair follicle keratinocytes. Frizzled-3 transcripts are first detected in discrete foci in the developing epidermis of 13 d embryos and later in the hair follicle placodes of 15 d embryos, suggesting a role for this Frizzled isoform in follicle development. In 17 d embryos and id old newborn mice Frizzled-3 expression is limited to suprabasal keratinocytes and is not seen in pelage follicles until 3 d postpartum. In 7 d old neonatal skin, Frizzled-3 is expressed throughout the epidermis and in the outer cell layers of hair follicles. We have also identified the mRNA encoding human Frizzled-3 in epidermal keratinocytes and in the HaCaT keratinocyte cell line. Human Frizzled-3 mRNA encodes a 666 amino acid protein with 97.8% identity to the mouse protein. The human Frizzled-3 gene was mapped using a radiation-hybrid cell line panel to the short arm of chromosome 8 between the markers WI-1172 and WI-8496 near the loci for the Hypotrichosis of Marie Unna and Hairless genes.

China and Southeast Asia

In the new millennium, no issue in international relations will be more important than how to accommodate the rising power of China. Many analysts, especially in the United States, see China as a significant threat to American interests in Asia. Washington has treaty commitments in both Northeast and Southeast Asia and retains a substantial military presence in the region. Beijing claims it does not seek to replace the United States reigning global hegemony, but seeks to promote a multi-polar world in which six states (the US, China, the EU, Russia, Japan, and India) would have pre-eminent status.

Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.

Valuing ecological functions of biodiversity in changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve in northeast china

Conservation of biodiversity can generate considerable indirect economic value and this is being increasingly recognized in China. For a forest ecosystem type of a nature reserve, the most important of its values are its ecological functions which provide human beings and other living things with beneficial environmental services. These services include water conservancy, soil protection, CO2 fixation and O-2 release, nutrient cycling, pollutant decomposition, and disease and pest control. Based on a case study in Changbaishan Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Northeast China, this paper provides a monetary valuation of these services by using opportunity cost and alternative cost methods. Using such an approach, this reserve is valued at 510.11 million yuan (USD 61.68 mill.) per year, 10 times higher than the opportunity cost (51.78 mill. yuan/ha.a) for regular timber production. While China has heeded United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)'s call for economic evaluation of ecological functions, the assessment techniques used need to be improved in China and in the West for reasons mentioned.

Global trade in GM food and the cartagena protocol on biosafety: Consequences for China

The UN Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety adopted in Montreal, 29 January, 2000 and opened for signature in Nairobi, 15-26 May, 2000 will exert a profound effect on international trade in genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and their products. In this paper, the potential effects of various articles of the Protocol on international trade in GMOs are analyzed. Based on the present status of imports of GMOs and domestic research and development of biotechnology in China, likely trends in imports of foreign GM food and related products after China accedes to WTO is explored. Also, China's potential countermeasures to control and regulate imports of GMOs in line with implementation of the Protocol are discussed. China, in recent times, has increased its food and agricultural imports substantially from USA and Canada. China imported soybean 10.42 mill. tons in 2000 and about 15 mill tons in 2001, of which majority are from USA where GM soybean accounts for 60%. The plantation of US Monsanto's transgenic Bt cotton was increased to more than 1 million ha in China in 2001. Though China has paid great attention to develop biotechnology, it appears to have little scope to export GMOs and GM products. So China may consider a range of administrative measures to implement the Cartagena Protocol and to regulate its import of GMOs and GM agricultural products. Consequently, the Regulation on Safety of Agri-GMOs was issued on June, 2001 and followed three detailed rules issued in Jan. of 2002, with a priority to limit foreign GMOs importing by safety certification and labeling system. These were outlined taking into account policies adopted in Western countries such as green barriers to international trade.

Polyspecific malaria antibodies present at the time of infection inhibit the development of immunity to malaria but antibodies specific for the malaria merozoite surface protein, MSP1, facilitate immunity

Serum taken from mice immune to malaria as a result of infection and drug cure, or from mice immunized with a recombinant form of the merozoite surface protein, MSP1, can provide passive protection of recipient mice against the lethal parasite, Plasmodium yoelii YM. However, recipients of MSP1-immune serum go on to develop long-term immunity, whereas recipients of serum from mice naturally immune to malaria rapidly lose their resistance to infection. We demonstrate that 'infection/cure' serum suppresses the development of both antibody and cell-mediated parasite-specific responses in recipients, whereas these develop in recipients of MSP1-specific antibodies. These data have profound implications for our understanding of the development of malaria immunity in babies who passively acquire antibodies from their mothers.