Bayesian population pharmacokinetic analysis of sirolimus

Objective: It is usual that data collected from routine clinical care is sparse and unable to support the more complex pharmacokinetic (PK) models that may have been reported in previous rich data studies. Informative priors may be a pre-requisite for model development. The aim of this study was to estimate the population PK parameters of sirolimus using a fully Bayesian approach with informative priors. Methods: Informative priors including prior mean and precision of the prior mean were elicited from previous published studies using a meta-analytic technique. Precision of between-subject variability was determined by simulations from a Wishart distribution using MATLAB (version 6.5). Concentration-time data of sirolimus retrospectively collected from kidney transplant patients were analysed using WinBUGS (version 1.3). The candidate models were either one- or two-compartment with first order absorption and first order elimination. Model discrimination was based on computation of the posterior odds supporting the model. Results: A total of 315 concentration-time points were obtained from 25 patients. Most data were clustered at trough concentrations with range of 1.6 to 77 hours post-dose. Using informative priors, either a one- or two-compartment model could be used to describe the data. When a one-compartment model was applied, information was gained from the data for the value of apparent clearance (CL/F = 18.5 L/h), and apparent volume of distribution (V/F = 1406 L) but no information was gained about the absorption rate constant (ka). When a two-compartment model was fitted to the data, the data were informative about CL/F, apparent inter-compartmental clearance, and apparent volume of distribution of the peripheral compartment (13.2 L/h, 20.8 L/h, and 579 L, respectively). The posterior distribution of the volume distribution of central compartment and ka were the same as priors. The posterior odds for the two-compartment model was 8.1, indicating the data supported the two-compartment model. Conclusion: The use of informative priors supported the choice of a more complex and informative model that would otherwise have not been supported by the sparse data.

Highways of gene sharing in prokaryotes

The extent to which lateral genetic transfer has shaped microbial genomes has major implications for the emergence of community structures. We have performed a rigorous phylogenetic analysis of > 220,000 proteins from genomes of 144 prokaryotes to determine the contribution of gene sharing to current prokaryotic diversity, and to identify highways of sharing between lineages. The inferred relationships suggest a pattern of inheritance that is largely vertical, but with notable exceptions among closely related taxa, and among distantly related organisms that live in similar environments.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Phylogenetic position and ultrastructure of two Dermocystidium species (Ichthyosporea) from the common perch (Perca fluviatilis)

Sequences of small-subunit rRNA genes were determined for Dermocystidium percae and a new Dermocystidium species established as D. fennicum sp. n. from perch in Finland. On the basis of alignment and phylogenetic analysis both species were placed in the Dermocystidium-Rhinosporidium clade within Ichthyosporea, D. fennicum as a specific sister taxon to D. salmonis, and D. percae in a clade different from D. fennicum. The ultrastructures of both species well agree with the characteristics approved within Ichthyosporea: walled spores produce uniflagellate zoospores lacking a collar or cortical alveoli. The two Dermocystidium species resemble Rhinosporidium seeberi (as described by light microscope), a member of the nearest relative genus, but differ in that in R. seeberi plasmodia have thousands of nuclei discernible, endospores are discharged through a pore in the wall of the sporangium, and zoospores have not been revealed. The plasmodial stages of both Dermocystidium species have a most unusual behaviour of nuclei, although we do not actually know how the nuclei transform during the development. Early stages have an ordinary nucleus with double, fenestrated envelope. In middle-aged plasmodia ordinary nuclei seem to be totally absent or are only seldom discernible until prior to sporogony, when rather numerous nuclei again reappear. Meanwhile single-membrane vacuoles with coarsely granular content, or complicated membranous systems were discernible. Ordinary nuclei may be re-formed within these vacuoles or systems. In D. percae small canaliculi and in D. fennicum minute vesicles may aid the nucleus-cytoplasm interchange of matter before formation of double-membrane-enveloped nuclei. Dermocystidium represents a unique case when a stage of the life cycle of an eukaryote lacks a typical nucleus.

Prey capture and accommodation in the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae; Teleostei)

The eyes of the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae. Teleostei) move independently and possess a refractive cornea, a convexiclivate fovea and a non-spherical lens giving rise to a wide separation of the nodal point from the axis of rotation of the eye much like that of a chameleon. To investigate this apparent convergence of the visual optics in these phylogenetically disparate species, we examine feeding behaviour and accommodation in the sandlance with special reference to the possibility that sandlances use accommodation as a depth cue to judge strike length. Frame-by-frame analysis of over 2000 strikes show a 100% success rate. Explosive strikes are completed in 50 ms over prey distances of four body lengths. Close-up video confirms that successful strikes can be initiated monocularly (both normally and after monocular occlusion) showing that binocular cues are not necessary to judge the length of a strike. Additional means of judging prey distance may also be derived from parallax information generated by rotation of the eye as suggested for chameleons. Using photorefraction on anaesthetised sandlances, accommodative changes were induced with acetylcholine and found to range between 120 D and 180 D at a speed of 600-720 D s(-1). The large range of accommodation (25% of the total power) is also thought to be mediated by corneal accommodation where the contraction of a unique cornealis muscle acts to change the corneal curvatures.

The advantages of theft over toil: The design inference and arguing from ignorance

Intelligent design theorist William Dembski has proposed an explanatory filter for distinguishing between events due to chance, lawful regularity or design. We show that if Dembski's filter were adopted as a scientific heuristic, some classical developments in science would not be rational, and that Dembski's assertion that the filter reliably identifies rarefied design requires ignoring the state of background knowledge. If background information changes even slightly, the filter's conclusion will vary wildly. Dembski fails to overcome Hume's objections to arguments from design.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

A new species of Phyllurus (Lacertilia : Gekkonidae) and a revised phylogeny and key for the Australian leaf-tailed geckos

Phyllurus gulbaru, sp. nov., is a highly distinct species of leaf-tailed gecko restricted to rocky rainforest of Pattersons Gorge, north-west of Townsville. The possession of a cylindrical, non-depressed, tapering original and regenerated tail separates P. gulbaru from all congeners except P. caudiannulatus. From this species P. gulbaru is separated by having a partially divided, as opposed to fully divided, rostral scale. Furthermore, the very small spinose body tubercles of P. gulbaru are in marked contrast to the large spinose body scales of P. caudiannulatus. An analysis of 729 bp of mitochondrial 12S rRNA and cytochrome b genes reveals P. gulbaru to be a deeply divergent lineage with closer affinities to mid-east Queensland congeners than the geographically neighbouring P. amnicola on Mt Elliot. In conservation terms, P. gulbaru is clearly at risk. Field surveys of Pattersons Gorge and the adjacent ranges indicate that this species is restricted to a very small area of highly fragmented habitat, of which only a small proportion receives a degree of protection in State forest. Further, there is ongoing, unchecked destruction of dry rainforest habitat by fire. Under current IUCN criteria, P. gulbaru warrants an Endangered ( B1, 2) listing.

Phylogeny and classification of the Digenea (Platyhelminthes : Trematoda)

Complete small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (ssrDNA) and partial (D1-D3) large subunit ribosomal RNA gene (lsrDNA) sequences were used to estimate the phylogeny of the Digenea via maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Here we contribute 80 new ssrDNA and 124 new lsrDNA sequences. Fully complementary data sets of the two genes were assembled from newly generated and previously published sequences and comprised 163 digenean taxa representing 77 nominal families and seven aspidogastrean outgroup taxa representing three families. Analyses were conducted on the genes independently as well as combined and separate analyses including only the higher plagiorchiidan taxa were performed using a reduced-taxon alignment including additional characters that could not be otherwise unambiguously aligned. The combined data analyses yielded the most strongly supported results and differences between the two methods of analysis were primarily in their degree of resolution. The Bayesian analysis including all taxa and characters, and incorporating a model of nucleotide substitution (general-time-reversible with among-site rate heterogeneity), was considered the best estimate of the phylogeny and was used to evaluate their classification and evolution. In broad terms, the Digenea forms a dichotomy that is split between a lineage leading to the Brachylaimoidea, Diplostomoidea and Schistosomatoidea (collectively the Diplostomida nomen novum (nom. nov.)) and the remainder of the Digenea (the Plagiorchiida), in which the Bivesiculata nom. nov. and Transversotremata nom. nov. form the two most basal lineages, followed by the Hemiurata. The remainder of the Plagiorchiida forms a large number of independent lineages leading to the crown clade Xiphidiata nom. nov. that comprises the Allocreadioidea, Gorgoderoidea, Microphalloidea and Plagiorchioidea, which are united by the presence of a penetrating stylet in their cercariae. Although a majority of families and to a lesser degree, superfamilies are supported as currently defined, the traditional divisions of the Echinostomida, Plagiorchiida and Strigeida were found to comprise non-natural assemblages. Therefore, the membership of established higher taxa are emended, new taxa erected and a revised, phylogenetically based classification proposed and discussed in light of ontogeny, morphology and taxonomic history. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A molecular phylogeny of the Australian skink genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura

Skinks from the genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura are a prominent component of the reptile fauna of the mesic forests of the east coast of Australia and have been the subject of numerous ecological studies. Highly conserved morphology and the retention of ancestral traits have limited our understanding of the relationships within and among these genera beyond an initial identification of species groups within Eulamprus. To address this deficit and to explore the relationships between Eulamprus and the monotypic genera Nangura and Gnypetoscincus, sections of two mitochondrial genes (ND4 and 16S rRNA) were sequenced and subjected to Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This phylogenetic analysis supports recognition of the three species groups proposed for Eulamprus (murrayi, quoyii and tenuis) and indicates that this genus is paraphyletic, with Gnypetoscincus and Nangura being proximal to basal lineages of the tenuis group. To resolve these and broader problems of paraphyly, we suggest that each of the species groups from 'Eulamprus' should be recognised as a distinct genus. The phylogenetically and ecologically distinct water skinks of the quoyii group would be retained within Eulamprus and the diverse species of the tenuis group allocated to Concinnia. We suggest placing the monophyletic murrayi group, endemic to the rainforests of central eastern Australia, in a new genus ( yet to be formally described). The sequencing data also revealed the existence of a genetically divergent but morphologically cryptic lineage within E. murrayi and substantial diversity within E. quoyii. There is evidence for two major habitat shifts from rainforest towards drier habitats, one leading to the quoyii group and the second defining a clade of three species within the tenuis complex. These ecological transitions may represent adaptations to general drying across eastern Australia during the late Miocene - Pliocene. Each of the major areas of east coast tropical or subtropical rainforest contains multiple phylogenetically diverse endemic species, reflecting the long-term persistence and high conservation value of wet forest habitats in each area.

Approach to challenging behaviour: a family affair

Over the past 30 years, research in the area of applied behaviour. analysis has led to a rich knowledge and understanding of the variables that influence human behaviour. This understanding and knowledge has given rise to a range of assessment and intervention techniques that have been applied to individuals with challenging behaviour. Interventions have produced changes in the severity and frequency of behaviours such as self-injury, aggression, and property destruction, card have also led to the acquisition of desired behaviours. While behaviour change has been achieved, families have expressed a desire for positive behaviour support approaches that adopt a family,focus. Research and development of support frameworks that emphasise the interrelatedness of family members, and the child with a disability as part of his or her family, have gained prominence in the family systems literature. The present paper reviews some of the behaviourally based research in this area. Through the use of a case illustration, the authors discuss the links between behavioural support and family-centred support systems for children with developmental disabilities. Theoretical and practical implications are considered and areas for future research are highlighted.

Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and evolution of anomalous roots in Daviesia (Fabaceae : Mirbelieae)

The phylogeny of the Australian legume genus Daviesia was estimated using sequences of the internal transcribed spacers of nuclear ribosomal DNA. Partial congruence was found with previous analyses using morphology, including strong support for monophyly of the genus and for a sister group relationship between the clade D. pachyloma and the rest of the genus. A previously unplaced bird-pollinated species, anceps + D. D. epiphyllum, was well supported as sister to the only other bird-pollinated species in the genus, D. speciosa, indicating a single origin of bird pollination in their common ancestor. Other morphological groups within Daviesia were not supported and require reassessment. A strong and previously unreported sister clade of Daviesia consists of the two monotypic genera Erichsenia and Viminaria. These share phyllode-like leaves and indehiscent fruits. The evolutionary history of cord roots, which have anomalous secondary thickening, was explored using parsimony. Cord roots are limited to three separate clades but have a complex history involving a small number of gains (most likely 0-3) and losses (0-5). The anomalous structure of cord roots ( adventitious vascular strands embedded in a parenchymatous matrix) may facilitate nutrient storage, and the roots may be contractile. Both functions may be related to a postfire resprouting adaptation. Alternatively, cord roots may be an adaptation to the low-nutrient lateritic soils of Western Australia. However, tests for association between root type, soil type, and growth habit were equivocal, depending on whether the variables were treated as phylogenetically dependent (insignificant) or independent ( significant).