How to predict everything: Nostradamus in the role of Copernicus

Statistics is known to be an art as well as a science. The training of mathematical physicists predisposes them towards hypothesising plausible Bayesean priors. Tony Bracken and I were of that mind [1], but in our discussions we also recognised the Bayesean will-o'-the-wisp illustrated below.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.

A review of the impact of education and prior experience on new venture performance

The importance of education and experience to the successful performance of new firms is well recognized both by management practitioners and academics. Yet empirical research to support the significance of this relationship is inconclusive. This paper discusses theories describing the relationship between education and experience and firm performance. It also analyses and classifies the differing measures of performance, education and experience, and compares the results of multiple studies undertaken between 1977 and 2000. Possible reasons for conflicting results are identified, such as lack of sound theoretical bases that relate education and experience to performance, varying definitions of the key variables and the diversity of measures used. Finally, a framework is developed that incorporates variables that interact with experience and education to influence new venture performance.

What is the value of firms' prior knowledge? Building organisational knowledge capabilities

A firm's prior knowledge facilitates the absorption of new knowledge, thereby renewing a firm's systematic search, transfer and absorption capabilities. The rapidly expanding field of biotechnology is characterised by the convergence of disparate sciences and technologies. This paper, the shift from proteinbased to DNA-based diagnostic technologies, quantifies the value of a firm's prior knowledge and its relation to future knowledge development. Four dimensions of diagnostic and four dimensions of knowledge in biotechnology firms are analysed. A simple scaled matrix method is developed to quantify the positive and negative heuristic values of prior scientific and technological knowledge that is useful for the acquisition and absorption of new knowledge.

Valuing of firm's prior knowledge: A measure of knowledge distance

Knowledge, especially scientific and technological knowledge, grows according to knowledge trajectories and guideposts that make up the prior knowledge of an organization. We argue that these knowledge structures and their specific components lead to successful innovation. A firm's prior knowledge facilitates the absorption of new knowledge, thereby renewing a firm's systematic search, transfer and acquisition of knowledge and capabilities. In particular, the exponential growth in biotechnology is characterized by the convergence of disparate scientific and technological knowledge resources. This paper examines the shift from protein-based to DNA-based diagnostic technologies as an example, to quantify the value of a firm's prior knowledge using relative values of knowledge distance. The distance between core prior knowledge and the rate of transition from one knowledge system to another has been identified as a proxy for the value a firm's prior knowledge. The overall difficulty of transition from one technology paradigm to another is discussed. We argue this transition is possible when the knowledge distance is minimal and the transition process has a correspondingly high value of absorptive capacities. Our findings show knowledge distance is a determinant of the feasibility, continuity and capture of scientific and technological knowledge. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parathyroid hormone venous sampling prior to reoperation for primary hyperparathyroidism

Background: The surgical cure rate for primary hyperparathyroidism is greater than 95%. For those who have recurrent or persistent disease, preoperative localization improves reoperation success rates. Selective parathyroid venous sampling (SPVS) for intact parathyroid hormone is particularly useful when non-invasive localization techniques are negative or inconclusive. Methods: We present all known cases (n = 13) between 1994 and 2002 who had venous sampling for localization at our institution prior to reoperation for recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism. Comparison was made with non-invasive localization procedures. Results of invasive and non-invasive localization were correlated with surgical findings. Results: Of the nine reoperated cases, eight had positive correlations between SPVS and operative findings and histopathology. SPVS did not reveal the parathyroid hormone source in one case with negative non-invasive localization procedures. Comparisons between SPVS, computerized tomography (CT), and parathyroid scintigraphy (MIBI) as expressed in terms of true positive (TP), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) were: SPVS - TP 88.8%, FP 0%, FN 11.1%; CT - TP 22.2%, FP 22.2%, FN 55.5%; and MIBI - TP 33.3%, FP 0%, FN 66.6%. At least seven of the nine operated cases have been cured; another remained normocalcaemic 2 weeks after subtotal parathyroidectomy. Conclusion: In our institution SPVS has proven to be a valuable tool in cases with recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism and negative non-invasive localization procedures.

Experimental manipulation of prior experience: Effects on item and associative recognition

Frequency of exposure to very low- and high-frequency words was manipulated in a three-phase (familiarisation, study, and test) design. During familiarisation, words were presented with their definition (once, four times, or not presented). One week (Experiment 1) or one day (Experiment 2) later, participants studied a list of homogeneous pairs (i.e., pair members were matched on background and familiarisation frequency). Item and associative recognition of high- and very low-frequency words presented in intact, rearranged, old-new, or new-new pairs were tested in Experiment 1. Associative recognition of very low-frequency words was tested in Experiment 2. Results showed that prior familiaris ation improved associative recognition of very low-frequency pairs, but had no effect on high-frequency pairs. The role of meaning in the formation of item-to-item and item-to-context associations and the implications for current models of memory are discussed.

Canine intra-nasal squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemotherapy prior to surgical resection

A 12-year-old male castrated Samoyed dog was presented with left-sided epistaxis and sneezing. Diagnostic procedures included haematology and biochemistry testing, thoracic radiography, fine needle aspiration of regional lymph nodes, CT, rhinoscopy, incisional biopsy and histopathology. Squamous cell carcinoma of the rostral nasal cavity was diagnosed, with no evidence of metastatic disease. External beam radiation was not an accessible treatment option. Complete surgical resection of the tumour would have required a larger, more disfiguring resection of nasal planum and maxilla than the owner was prepared to accept and may have been associated with an unacceptable morbidity. As an alternative, the extent of disease was reduced using a combination of carboplatin, doxorubicin and piroxicam chemotherapy. This allowed a less extensive nasal planum removal to be performed to remove residual disease with clean margins. The patient achieved a 14 month disease free interval from the time of surgery to the time of local recurrence. Survival time from diagnosis to eventual euthanasia for progressive local disease was 18 months.

The influence of memory for prior instances on performance in a conflict detection task

In 3 experiments, the authors examined the role of memory for prior instances for making relative judgments in conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of aircraft either repeatedly conflict with each other or pass safely before being tested on new aircraft pairs, which varied in similarity to the training pairs. Performance was influenced by the similarity between aircraft pairs. Detection time was faster when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly conflicted. Detection time was slower, and participants missed conflicts, when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. The findings identify aircraft features that are used as inputs into the memory decision process and provide an indication of the processes involved in the use of memory for prior instances to make relative judgments.

Body-mass management of Australian lightweight rowers prior to and during competition

Purpose: Although the body-mass management strategies of athletes in high-participation weight-category sports such as wrestling have been thoroughly investigated, little is known about such practices among lightweight rowers. This study examined the body-mass management practices of lightweight rowers before competition and compared these with current guidelines of the International Federation of Rowing Association (FISA). Quantification of nutrient intake in the 1-2 h between weigh-in and racing was also sought. Methods: Lightweight rowers (N = 100) competing in a national regatta completed a questionnaire that assessed body-mass management practices during the 4 wk before and throughout a regatta plus recovery strategies after weigh-in. Biochemical data were collected immediately after weigh-in to validate questionnaire responses. Responses were categorized according to gender and age category (Senior B or younger than 23 yr old, i.e., U23, Senior A or OPEN, i.e., open age limit) for competition. Results: Most athletes (male U23 76.5%, OPEN 92.3%; female U23 84.0%, OPEN 94.1%) decreased their body mass in the weeks before the regatta at rates compliant with FISA guidelines. Gradual dieting, fluid restriction, and increased training load were the most popular methods of body-mass management. Although the importance of recovery after weigh-in was recognized by athletes, nutrient intake and especially sodium (male U23 5.3 &PLUSMN; 4.9, OPEN 7.7 &PLUSMN; 5.9; female U23 5.7 &PLUSMN; 6.8, OPEN 10.2 &PLUSMN; 5.4 mg-kg(-1)) and fluid intake (male U23 12.1 &PLUSMN; 7.1, OPEN 13.5 &PLUSMN; 8.1; female U23 9.4 &PLUSMN; 7.4, OPEN 14.8 &PLUSMN; 6.9 mL.kg(-1)) were below current sports nutrition recommendations. Conclusion: Few rowers were natural lightweights; the majority reduced their body mass in the weeks before a regatta. Nutritional recovery strategies implemented by lightweight rowers after weigh-in were not consistent with current guidelines.

Patient teaching prior to coronary angiography in Hong Kong: A pilot study

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