Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of prepulse-blink reflex trial repetition and prepulse change on blink reflex modification at short and long lead intervals

Prepulse inhibition and facilitation of the blink reflex are said to reflect different responses elicited by the lead stimulus, transient detection and orienting response respectively. Two experiments investigated the effects of trial repetition and lead stimulus change on blink modification. It was hypothesized that these manipulations will affect orienting and thus blink facilitation to a greater extent than they will affect transient detection and thus blink inhibition. In Experiment 1 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 12 lead stimulus and 12 blink stimulus alone presentations, and 24 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. Lead interval was 120 ms for 12 of the trials and 2000 ms for the other 12. For half the subjects this sequence was followed by a change in pitch of the lead stimulus. In Experiment 2 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 36 blink alone stimuli and 36 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. The lead interval was 120 ms for half the subjects and 2000 ms for the other half. The pitch of the lead stimulus on prestimulus trials 31-33 was changed for half the subjects in each group. In both experiments, the amount of blink inhibition decreased during training whereas the amount of blink facilitation remained unchanged. Lead stimulus change had no effect on blink modification in either experiment although it resulted in enhanced skin conductance responses and greater heart rate deceleration in Experiment 2. The present results are not consistent with the notion that blink facilitation is linked to orienting whereas blink inhibition reflects a transient detection mechanism. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Sporadic and familial pheochromocytomas are associated with loss of at least two discrete intervals on chromosome 1p

Pheochromocytomas are tumors of the adrenal medulla originating in the chromaffin cells derived from the neural crest. Ten % of these tumors are associated with the familial cancer syndromes multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2, von Hippel-Lindau disease (VHL), and rarely, neurofibromatosis type 1, in which germ-line mutations have been identified in RET, VHL, and NF1, respectively. In both the sporadic and familial forms of pheochromocytoma, allelic loss at 1p, 3p, 17p, and 22q has been reported, yet the molecular pathogenesis of these tumors is largely unknown. Allelic loss at chromosome 1p has also been reported in other endocrine tumors, such as medullary thyroid cancer and tumors of the parathyroid gland, as well as in tumors of neural crest origin including neuroblastoma and malignant melanoma, In this study, we performed fine structure mapping of deletions at chromosome 1p in familial and sporadic pheochromocytomas to identify discrete regions likely housing tumor suppressor genes involved in the development of these tumors. Ten microsatellite markers spanning a region of similar to 70 cM (Ipter to 1p34.3) were used to screen 20 pheochromocytomas from 19 unrelated patients for loss of heterozygosity (LOH). LOH was detected at five or more loci in 8 of 13 (61%)sporadic samples and at five or more loci in four of five (80%) tumor samples from patients with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2. No LOH at 1p was detected in pheochromocytomas from two VHL patients, Analysis of the combined sporadic and familial tumor data suggested three possible regions of common somatic loss, designated as PCI (D1S243 to D1S244), PC2 (D1S228 to D1S507), and PC3 (D1S507 toward the centromere). We propose that chromosome Ip may be the site of at least three putative tumor suppressor loci involved in the tumorigenesis of pheochromocytomas. At least one of these loci, PC2 spanning an interval of <3.8 cM, is Likely to have a broader role in the development of endocrine malignancies.

Attentional modulation of blink startle at long, short, and very short lead intervals

The present research investigated attentional blink startle modulation at lead intervals of 60, 240 and 3500 ms. Letters printed in Gothic or standard fonts, which differed in rated interest, but not valence, served as lead stimuli. Experiment I established that identifying letters as vowels/consonants took longer than reading the letters and that performance in both tasks was slower if letters were printed in Gothic font. In Experiment 2, acoustic blink eliciting stimuli were presented 60, 240 and 3500 ms after onset of the letters in Gothic and in standard font and during intertrial intervals. Half the participants (Group Task) were asked to identify the letters as vowels/consonants whereas the others (Group No-Task) did not perform a task. Relative to control responses, blinks during letters were facilitated at 60 and 3500 ms lead intervals and inhibited at the 240 ms lead interval for both conditions in Group Task. Differences in blink modulation across lead intervals were found in Group No-Task only during Gothic letters with blinks at the 3500 ms lead interval facilitated relative to control blinks. The present results confirm previous findings indicating that attentional processes can modulate startle at very short lead intervals. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of lead stimulus and reflex stimulus modality on modulation of the blink reflex at very short, short, and long lead intervals

The blink reflex is modulated if a weak lead stimulus precedes the blink-eliciting stimulus. In two experiments, we examined the effects of the sensory modality of the lead and blink-eliciting stimuli on blink modulation. Acoustic, visual, or tactile lead stimuli were followed by an acoustic (Experiment 1) or an electrotactile (Experiment 2) blink-eliciting stimulus at lead intervals of -30, 0, 30, 60, 120, 240, 360, and 4,500 msec. The inhibition of blink magnitude at the short (60- to 360-msec) lead intervals and the facilitation of blink magnitude at the long (4,500-msec) lead interval observed for each lead stimulus modality was relatively unaffected by the blink-eliciting stimulus modality. The facilitation of blink magnitude at the very short (-30- to 30-msec) lead intervals was dependent on the combination of the lead and the blink-eliciting stimulus modalities. Modality specific and nonspecific processes operate at different levels of perceptual processing.

Boosting the tree augmented naive bayes classifier

The Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) classifier relaxes the sweeping independence assumptions of the Naïve Bayes approach by taking account of conditional probabilities. It does this in a limited sense, by incorporating the conditional probability of each attribute given the class and (at most) one other attribute. The method of boosting has previously proven very effective in improving the performance of Naïve Bayes classifiers and in this paper, we investigate its effectiveness on application to the TAN classifier.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Extended delayed recall of AVLT word lists: Effects of age and sex on adult performance

An extension of a previous study of age and sex effects on verbal recall (Geffen, Moar, O'Hanlon, lark, & Geffen, 1990) examined forgetting of words over extended delays. The AVLT was administered to 201 normal adults (99 males, 102 females) ranging in age between 20 and 59 years. Recall was tested at intervals of 30 minutes, 24 hours, and 7 days after acquisition. Testing of the latter two intervals was conducted by telephone (Experiment 1, N = 177). After 30 minutes there was no significant loss of the 10 to 11 words retained from five acquisition trials. However, an overall mean of about one word was forgotten after 1 day and a further word after 7 days. The oldest age group (50-59 years) acquired fewer words and forgot more words than the younger groups. Females of all age groups performed slightly better than males at acquisition, at retention, and at recall after longer delays. A second experiment showed that telephone testing at the longer delay intervals was equivalent to testing face to face. These results extend the use of the AVLT by assessing memory decay beyond the immediate testing period. Telephone follow-up is a convenient and economical method of testing delayed recall.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.