On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Rate and timing of vegetative growth, flowering and fruit development of Persoonia virgata (Proteaceae)

Persoonia virgata R. Br. is harvested from the wild in both its vegetative and flowering stages. There has been no systematic study published on the annual growth cycle and anecdotal reports are conflicting. The growth pattern, flowering and fruit development of P. virgata in its natural habitat was recorded monthly for two consecutive years. The main growth period occurred in late spring-mid-autumn (November-May) when the shrubs were producing little or no fruit. Very few open flowers were observed at the site over the 2 years, with only 6.7 and 12.7% of stems bearing open flowers in January and February 1996, respectively. A second study of flowering on container-grown shrubs showed that individual flowers were open for only 2-5 days, with individual stems taking 3-8.5 weeks to complete flowering. The main fruit growth period occurred from May to September, and in June and July 1996 the total fruit set per stem was 41.6 and 36.1%, respectively. The fruit took at least 6 months to develop during which vegetative growth was minimal. The harvesting of plants in the flowering or fruiting stages removes the annual seed crop, which may reduce regeneration of this obligate seed regenerator and threaten its survival after fire.

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life: evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: - 0.64 to - 0.28MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and - 0.39 to +0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial ATP production rate and walking performance in peripheral arterial disease

This study tested the hypotheses that skeletal muscle mitochondrial ATP production rate (MAPR) is impaired in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and that it relates positively to their walking performances. Seven untrained patients, eight exercise-trained patients and 11 healthy controls completed a maximal walking test and had muscle sampled from the gastrocnemius medialis muscle. Muscle was analysed for its MAPR in the presence of pyruvate, palmitoyl-L-carnitine or both, as well as citrate synthase (CS) activity. MAPRs were not different between untrained PAD and controls. In contrast, MAPRs (pyruvate) were significantly higher in trained PAD vs. controls. MAPR (pyruvate combinations) was also significantly higher in trained than untrained PAD muscle. MAPR and CS activity were highly correlated with walking performance in patients, but not in controls. These data do not support the hypothesis that isolated mitochondria are functionally impaired in PAD and demonstrate that the muscle mitochondrial capacity to oxidize carbohydrate is positively related to walking performance in these patients.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

The effect of pretreatments on the drying rate and quality of dried bananas

The effects that four pretreatments (blanching, chilling, freezing, and combined blanching and freezing), used prior to drying, had on the drying rate and quality of bananas were investigated. An untreated sample was used as a control. The bananas were dried at 50 degreesC in a heat pump dehumidifier dryer, using an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1), until a final moisture content of approximately 25% dry weight basis was attained. While the initial drying rate was highest for the blanched treatment, the two pretreatments involving freezing resulted in the shortest drying times. The blanched sample was most preferred in terms of colour while the frozen samples exhibited extensive browning. The texture and flavour was significantly (P < 0.05) reduced in all samples that involved blanching and/or freezing.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Ventilation rate and behavioural responses of two species of intertidal goby (Pisces : Gobiidae) at extremes of environmental temperature

We investigated the behavioural responses of two gobiid fish species to temperature to determine if differences in behaviour and ventilation rate might explain any apparent vertical zonation. A survey of the shore at Manly, Moreton Bay revealed Favonigobius exquisitus to dominate the lower shore and Pseudogobius sp. 4 the upper shore. These species were exposed to a range of temperatures (15-40 degreesC) in aquaria for up to 6 h. At 20 degreesC F. exquisitus exhibited a mean gill ventilation rate of 26 +/- 1.4 bpm (beats per minute) differing significantly from Pseudogobius, which ventilated at a fivefold greater rate of 143 +/- 6 bpm. The ventilation rate in F. exquisitus underwent a fivefold increase from normal local water temperature (20 degreesC) to high temperature (35 degreesC) conditions, whereas that of Pseudogobius did not even double, suggesting that Pseudogobius sp. is a better thermal regulator than F. exquisitus. While both species emerged from the water at high temperatures (>30 degreesC) the behaviours they exhibited while immersed at high temperature were quite different. F. exquisitus undertook vertical displacement movements we interpret as an avoidance response, whereas Pseudogobius sp. appeared to use a coping strategy involving movements that might renew the water mass adjacent to its body. The thermal tolerances and behaviours of F. exquisitus and Pseudogobius sp. are in broad agreement with their vertical distribution on the shore.