Identifying the energy gap: Magnitude and determinants of 5-year weight gain in midage women

Objective: The aims of this study were to estimate average yearly weight gain in midage women and to identify the determinants of weight gain and gaining weight at double the average rate. Research Methods and Procedures: The study sample comprised 8071 participants (45 to 55 years old) in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who completed mailed surveys in 1996, 1998, and 2001. Results: On average, the women gained almost 0.5 kg per year [average 2.42 kg (95% confidence interval, 2.29 to 2.54) over 5 years]. In multivariate analyses, variables associated with energy balance (physical activity, sitting time, and energy intake), as well as quitting smoking, menopause/hysterectomy, and baseline BMI category were significantly associated with weight gain, but other behavioral and demographic characteristics were not. After adjustment for all of the other biological and behavioral variables, the odds of gaining weight at about twice the average rate (> 5 kg over 5 years) were highest for women who quit smoking (odds ratio = 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 2.17, 3.96). There were also independent relationships between the odds of gaining > 5 kg and lower levels of habitual physical activity, more time spent sitting, energy intake (but only in women with BMI > 25 at baseline), menopause transition, and hysterectomy. Discussion: The average weight gain equates with an energy imbalance of only about 10 kcal or 40 kJ per day, which suggests that small sustained changes in the modifiable behavioral variables could prevent further weight gain.

Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

On the modelling of wave breaking and set-up on coral reefs

An extended refraction-diffraction equation [Massel, S.R., 1993. Extended refraction-diffraction equation for surface waves. Coastal Eng. 19, 97-126] has been applied to predict wave transformation and breaking as well as wave-induced set-up on two-dimensional reef profiles of various shapes. A free empirical coefficient alpha in a formula for the average rate of energy dissipation [epsilon(b)] = (alpha rho g omega/8 pi)(root gh/C)(H-3/h) in the modified periodic bore model was found to be a function of the dimensionless parameter F-c0 = (g(1.25)H(0)(0.5)T(2.5))/h(r)(1.75), proposed by Gourlay [Gourlayl M.R., 1994. Wave transformation on a coral reef. Coastal Eng. 23, 17-42]. The applicability of the developed model has been demonstrated for reefs of various shapes subjected to various incident wave conditions. Assuming proposed relationships of the coefficient alpha and F-c0, the model provides results on wave height attenuation and set-up elevation which compare well with experimental data. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

Why do eastern curlews Numenius madagascariensis feed on prey that lowers intake rate before migration?

Eastern curlews Numenius madagascariensis spending the nonbreeding season in eastern Australia foraged on three intertidal decapods: soldier crab Mictyris longicarpus, sentinel crab Macrophthalmus crassipes and ghost-shrimp Trypaea australiensis. Due to their ecology, these crustaceans were spatially segregated (=distributed in 'patches') and the curlews intermittently consumed more than one prey type. It was predicted that if the curlews behaved as intake rate maximizers, the time spent foraging on a particular prey (patch) would reflect relative availabilities of the prey types and thus prey-specific intake rates would be equal. During the mid-nonbreeding period (November-December), Mictyris and Macrophthalmus were primarily consumed and prey-specific intake rates were statistically indistinguishable (8.8 versus 10.1 kJ x min(-1)). Prior to migration (February), Mictyris and Trypaea were hunted and the respective intake rates were significantly different (8.9 versus 2.3 kJ x min(-1)). Time allocation to Trypaea-hunting was independent of the availability of Mictyris. Thus, consumption of Trypaea depressed the overall intake rate. Six hypotheses for consuming Trypaea before migration were examined. Five hypotheses: the possible error by the predator, prey specialization, observer overestimation of time spent hunting Trypaea, supplementary prey and the choice of higher quality prey due to a digestive bottleneck, were deemed unsatisfactory. The explanation for consumption of a low intake-rate but high quality prey (Trypaea) deemed plausible was diet optimisation by the Curlews in response to the pre-migratory modulation (decrease in size/processing capacity) of their digestive system. With a seasonal decrease in the average intake rate, the estimated intake per low tide increased from 1233 to 1508 kJ between the mid-nonbreeding and pre-migratory periods by increasing the overall time spent on the sandflats and the proportion of time spent foraging.

Family average income and body mass index above the healthy weight range among urban and rural residents in regional Mainland China

Objective: To explore the relationship between family average income (FAI; an index of socio-economic status) and body mass index (BMI; a widely used, inexpensive indicator of weight status) above the healthy weight range in a region of Mainland China. Design: Population-based cross-sectional study, conducted between October 1999 and March 2000 on a sample of regular local residents aged 35 years or older who were selected by random cluster sampling. Setting: Forty-five administrative villages selected from three urban districts and two rural counties of Nanjing municipality, Mainland China, with a regional population of 5.6 million. Subjects: In total, 29 340 subjects participated; 67.7% from urban and 32.3% from rural areas; 49.8% male and 50.2% female. The response rate among eligible participants was 90.1%. Results: The proportion of participants classified as overweight was 30.5%, while 7.8% were identified as obese. After adjusting for possible confounding variables (age, gender, area of residence, educational level, occupational and leisure-time physical activity, daily vegetable consumption and frequency of red meat intake), urban participants were more likely to be overweight or obese relative to their rural counterparts, more women than men were obese, and participants in the lowest FAI tertile were the least likely to be above the healthy weight range. Conclusions: The proportion of adults with BMI above the healthy weight range was positively related to having a higher socio-economic status (indexed by FAI) in a regional Chinese population.