Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Postharvest characteristics and handling of litchi fruit - an overview

Litchi ( Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is a tropical to subtropical crop that originated in South-East Asia. Litchi fruit are prized on the world market for their flavour, semi-translucent white aril and attractive red skin. Litchi is now grown commercially in many countries and production in Australia, China, Israel, South Africa and Thailand has expanded markedly in recent years. Increased production has made significant contributions to economic development in these countries, especially those in South-East Asia. Non-climacteric litchi fruit are harvested at their visual and organoleptic optimum. They are highly perishable and, consequently, have a short life that limits marketability and potential expansion of demand. Pericarp browning and pathological decay are common and important defects of harvested litchi fruit. Postharvest technologies have been developed to reduce these defects. These technologies involve cooling and heating the fruit, use of various packages and packaging materials and the application of fungicides and other chemicals. Through the use of fungicides and refrigeration, litchi fruit have a storage life of about 30 days. However, when they are removed from storage, their shelf life at ambient temperature is very short due to pericarp browning and fruit rotting. Low temperature acclimation or use of chitsoan as a coating can extend the shelf life. Sulfur dioxide fumigation effectively reduces pericarp browning, but approval from Europe, Australia and Japan for this chemical is likely to be withdrawn due to concerns over sulfur residues in fumigated fruit. Thus, sulfur-free postharvest treatments that maintain fruit skin colour are increasingly important. Alternatives to SO2 fumigation for control of pericarp browning and fruit rotting are pre-storage pathogen management, anoxia treatment, and dipping in 2% hydrogen chloride solution for 6-8 min following storage at 0 degrees C. Insect disinfestation has become increasingly important for the expansion of export markets because of quarantine issues associated with some fruit fly species. Thus, effective disinfestation protocols need to be developed. Heat treatment has shown promise as a quarantine technology, but it injures pericarp tissue and results in skin browning. However, heat treatment can be combined with an acid dip treatment that inhibits browning. Therefore, the primary aim of postharvest litchi research remains the achievement of highly coloured fruit which is free of pests and disease. Future research should focus on disease control before harvest, combined acid and heat treatments after harvest and careful temperature management during storage and transport.

Managing knowledge in tourism planning: How to assess your capability

This paper explores the theme of strategic planning in a State Tourism Organization (STO) from a knowledge management perspective. It highlights the value of knowledge in strategy making and the importance of an organisation's knowledge management agenda in facilitating a strategic planning process. In particular, it considers the capability of an STO to implement knowledge management as the key to a successful strategic planning exercise. In order to develop greater insight into the factors that impact on planning competence, the key aim of this paper is to develop a framework on which the capability of a STO to implement a knowledge-based agenda in strategic planning can be assessed. Research on knowledge management in the field of tourism is limited and there is little practical account of the application of knowledge management principles in tourism planning. Further, there is no apparent tool or instrument that allows for the assessment of an STO's capability to implement knowledge management in planning initiatives. Based on a literature review, a three-point framework of assessment is developed. The three elements of the framework are identified as: 1. Integration of knowledge management objectives with strategic imperatives; 2. A planning approach that balances top-down (outcome focused) with bottom-up (process focused) planning processes; and 3. Organisational capacity, including leadership, people and culture, process, technology, content and continuous improvement. The framework is tested through application to a practical case study - a planning initiative undertaken by a leading tourism STO in Australia. The results demonstrate that the framework is a useful means to evaluate organisational capability in knowledge-led strategic planning exercises and would be of practical value as a point of reference for future knowledge- based strategic planning projects. Copyright © by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Instant messaging: A cross-country comparison of factors affecting adoption

This research-in-progress paper utilizes the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to determine whether differences exist in the adoption of Instant Messaging (IM) Technologies in Australia, China, Mexico and the USA. Despite significant differences in the technology needed to implement IM (e.g., software supporting Chinese language characters), few barriers exist to the adoption of IM given the environment is in place. We postulate that language interface technology, infrastructure, and culture affect the adoption of IM technology.

Australia's Security and the threat of Islamic Extremism in Southeast Asia

Australian foreign and security policy confronts a series of difficult challenges in coping with the emergence of an Islamic extremist threat in Southeast Asia. Australian policy makers are being drawn into unfamiliar linkages with moderate Islam, and into closer cooperation with Indonesia, the most populous Islamic nation in the world, in an attempt to offset Islamic extremists. Further, they must achieve those objectives at a time when important interests are at stake beyond Southeast Asia, when bipartisan agreement about the direction of foreign policy is waning, and when divisions over the appropriate trajectory of Australian security policy are intense. A delicacy almost unprecedented in Australian foreign policy will be required.

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.

Assessing the Conservation Status and Threats to Priority Plants: a threat assessment approach and case study in South-East Queensland, Australia

bstract: During the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) process in south-east Queensland, the conservation status of, and threats to, priority vascular plant taxa in the region was assessed. Characteristics of biology, demography and distribution were used to assess the species' intrinsic risk of extinction. In contrast, the threats to the taxa (their extrinsic risk of extinction) were assessed using a decision-support protocol for setting conservation targets for taxa lacking population viability analyses and habitat modelling data. Disturbance processes known or suspected to be adversely affecting the taxa were evaluated for their intensity, extent and time-scale. Expert opinion was used to provide much of the data and to assess the recommended protection areas. Five categories of intrinsic risk of extinction were recognised for the 105 priority taxa: critically endangered (43 taxa); endangered (29); vulnerable (21); rare (10); and presumed extinct (2). Only 6 of the 103 extant taxa were found to be adequately reserved and the majority were considered inadequately protected to survive the current regimes of threatening processes affecting them. Data were insufficient to calculate a protection target for one extant taxon. Over half of the taxa require all populations to be conserved as well as active management to alleviate threatening processes. The most common threats to particular taxa were competition from weeds or native species, inappropriate fire regimes, agricultural clearing, forestry, grazing by native or feral species, drought, urban development, illegal collection of plants, and altered hydrology. Apart from drought and competition from native species, these disturbances are largely influenced or initiated by human actions. Therefore, as well as increased protection of most of the taxa, active management interventions are necessary to reduce the effects of threatening processes and to enable the persistence of the taxa.