Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatty acids as haptens: exploring the limits of antigenicity

Fatty acids (FAs) are relatively small, hydrophobic and highly mobile molecular structures with vital biological functions and a ubiquitous distribution. Surprisingly, however, they can be rendered immunogenic. We have synthesised a novel immunogen in which dicarboxylic linoleic acid was conjugated to a carrier protein. Dicarboxylic fatty acids (DCA) differ from their normal counterparts only by their possession of a carboxyl group at each end of the molecule. When conjugated to proteins as haptens, they are, therefore, presented to the immune system with a free carboxyl group at the distal end, instead of a methyl group. Polyclonal IgG antibodies raised in response to this unique immunogen could bind not only conjugated hapten with high affinity, but also the equivalent free FA in mono and dicarboxylic form. Similar conjugates constructed from normal FAs produced much weaker antibody responses and could scarcely be considered antigenic at all. The cross-reactivities of the anti-DCA antibodies with FA variants differing in the number, position and configuration of their double bonds showed that the antibody paratope (binding site) was structured to accommodate the hapten in a way that depended on the precise shape of the acyl chain. We suggest that FAs become much more effective as B-cell epitopes when presented with their hydrophilic carboxyl group exposed on the surface of immunogenic conjugates. This type of epitope is determined by the particular double bond pattern of the unsaturated acyl chain, as well as the polar head group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

US hegemony and Southeast Asia - The impact of, and limits to, US power and influence

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent war on terror, have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.

Pioglitazone increases renal tubular cell albumin uptake but limits proinflammatory and fibrotic responses

Background. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma) agonists. which are known to be critical factors in lipid metabolism, have also been reported to reduce proteinuria. The mechanism and its relevance to progressive nephropathy have not been determined. The aims of this study were to assess the direct effects of a PPARgamma agonist on tubular cell albumin uptake, proinflammatory and profibrotic markers of renal pathology, using an opossum kidney model of proximal tubular cells. Methods. Cells were exposed to pioglitazone (10 mumol/L) in the presence and absence of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) 100 mug/mL +/- exposure to albumin 1 mg/mL. Results were expressed relative to control (5 mmol/L glucose) conditions. Results. Pioglitazone caused a dose-dependent increase in tubular cell albumin uptake (P < 0.0001). Despite the increase in albumin reabsorption, no concurrent increase in inflammatory or profibrotic markers were observed. Exposure to LDL increased monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) (P < 0.05) and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) (P < 0.05) production. which were reversed in the presence of pioglitazone. LDL induced increases in MCP-1 and TGF-β1 were independent of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) transcriptional activity. In contrast. tubular exposure to albumin increased tubular protein uptake, in parallel with an increase in MCP-1 (P = 0.05): TGF-β1 (P < 0.02) and NF-kappaB transcriptional activity (P < 0.05). which were unaffected by concurrent exposure to pioglitazone. Conclusion. These findings suggest that dyslipidemia potentiates renal pathology through mechanisms that may be modified PPARγ activation independent of NF-κB transcriptional activitv. In contrast, tubular exposure to protein induces renal damage through NF-κB-dependent mechanisms that are Unaffected by PPARγ activation.

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

Linking physiological processes with mangrove forest structure: phosphorus deficiency limits canopy development, hydraulic conductivity and photosynthetic carbon gain in dwarf Rhizophora mangle

Spatial gradients in mangrove tree height in barrier islands of Belize are associated with nutrient deficiency and sustained flooding in the absence of a salinity gradient. While nutrient deficiency is likely to affect many parameters, here we show that addition of phosphorus (P) to dwarf mangroves stimulated increases in diameters of xylem vessels, area of conductive xylem tissue and leaf area index (LAI) of the canopy. These changes in structure were consistent with related changes in function, as addition of P also increased hydraulic conductivity (K-s), stomatal conductance and photosynthetic assimilation rates to the same levels measured in taller trees fringing the seaward margin of the mangrove. Increased xylem vessel size and corresponding enhancements in stern hydraulic conductivity in P fertilized dwarf trees came at the cost of enhanced midday loss of hydraulic conductivity and was associated with decreased assimilation rates in the afternoon. Analysis of trait plasticity identifies hydraulic properties of trees as more plastic than those of leaf structural and physiological characteristics, implying that hydraulic properties are key in controlling growth in mangroves. Alleviation of P deficiency, which released trees from hydraulic limitations, reduced the structural and functional distinctions between dwarf and taller fringing tree forms of Rhizophora mangle.

Suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 limits protection of leukemia inhibitory factor receptor signaling against central demyelination

Enhancement of oligodendrocyte survival through activation of leukemia inhibitory factor receptor (LIFR) signaling is a candidate therapeutic strategy for demyelinating disease. However, in other cell types, LIFR signaling is under tight negative regulation by the intracellular protein suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3). We, therefore, postulated that deletion of the SOCS3 gene in oligodendrocytes would promote the beneficial effects of LIFR signaling in limiting demyelination. By studying wild-type and LIF-knockout mice, we established that SOCS3 expression by oligodendrocytes was induced by the demyelinative insult, that this induction depended on LIF, and that enclogenously produced LIF was likely to be a key determinant of the CNS response to oligodendrocyte loss. Compared with wild-type controls, oligo-dendrocyte-specific SOCS3 conditional-knockout mice displayed enhanced c-fos activation and exogenous LIF-induced phosphorylation of signal transducer and activator of transcription 3. Moreover, these SOCS3-deficient mice were protected against cupri-zone-induced oligodendrocyte loss relative to wild-type animals. These results indicate that modulation of SOCS3 expression could facilitate the endogenous response to CNS injury.

The temporal and spatial limits of compensation for fixational eye movements

High-fidelity eye tracking is combined with a perceptual grouping task to provide insight into the likely mechanisms underlying the compensation of retinal image motion caused by movement of the eyes. The experiments describe the covert detection of minute temporal and spatial offsets incorporated into a test stimulus. Analysis of eye motion on individual trials indicates that the temporal offset sensitivity is actually due to motion of the eye inducing artificial spatial offsets in the briefly presented stimuli. The results have strong implications for two popular models of compensation for fixational eye movements, namely efference copy and image-based models. If an efference copy model is assumed, the results place constraints on the spatial accuracy and source of compensation. If an image-based model is assumed then limitations are placed on the integration time window over which motion estimates are calculated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capacity limits for the detection of changing visual features

Capacity limits in visual attention have traditionally been studied using static arrays of elements from which an observer must detect a target defined by a certain visual feature or combination of features. In the current study we use this visual search paradigm, with accuracy as the dependent variable, to examine attentional capacity limits for different visual features undergoing change over time. In Experiment 1, detectability of a single changing target was measured under conditions where the type of change (size, speed, colour), the magnitude of change, the set size and homogeneity of the unchanging distractors were all systematically varied. Psychometric function slopes were calculated for different experimental conditions and ‘change thresholds’extracted from these slopes were used in Experiment 2, in which multiple supra-threshold changes were made, simultaneously, either to a single or to two or three different stimulus elements. These experiments give an objective psychometric paradigm for measuring changes in visual features over time. Results favour object-based accounts of visual attention, and show consistent differences in the allocation of attentional capacity to different perceptual dimensions.