Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Geological and trace element evidence for a marine sedimentary environment of deposition and biogenicity of 3.45 Ga stromatolitic carbonates in the Pilbara Craton, and support for a reducing Archaean ocean

Bedded carbonate rocks from the 3.45 Ga Warrawoona Group, Pilbara Craton, contain structures that have been regarded either as the oldest known stromatolites or as abiotic hydrothermal deposits. We present new field and petrological observations and high-precision REE + Y data from the carbonates in order to test the origin of the deposits. Trace element geochemistry from a number of laminated stromatolitic dolomite samples of the c. 3.40 Ga Strelley Pool Chert conclusively shows that they precipitated from anoxic seawater, probably in a very shallow environment consistent with previous sedimentological observations. Edge-wise conglomerates in troughs between stromatolites and widespread cross-stratification provide additional evidence of stromatolite construction, at least partly, from layers of particulate sediment, rather than solely from rigid crusts. Accumulation of particulate sediment on steep stromatolite sides in a high-energy environment suggests organic binding of the surface. Relative and absolute REE + Y contents are exactly comparable with Late Archaean microbial carbonates of widely agreed biological origin. Ankerite from a unit of bedded ankerite–chert couplets from near the top of the stratigraphically older (3.49 Ga) Dresser Formation, which immediately underlies wrinkly stromatolites with small, broad, low-amplitude domes, also precipitated from anoxic seawater. The REE + Y data of carbonates from the Strelley Pool Chert and Dresser Formation contrast strongly with those from siderite layers in a jasper–siderite–Fe-chlorite banded iron-formation from the base of the Panorama Formation (3.45 Ga), which is clearly hydrothermal in origin. The geochemical results, together with sedimentological data, strongly support: (1) deposition of Dresser Formation and Strelley Pool Chert carbonates from Archaean seawater, in part as particulate carbonate sediment; (2) biogenicity of the stromatolitic carbonates; (3) a reducing Archaean atmosphere; (4) ongoing extensive terrestrial erosion prior to ∼3.45 Ga.

Correlations between the satellite-derived seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass and aerosol optical depth in the Southern Ocean: Evidence for the influence of sea ice

The relationship between the production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the upper ocean and atmospheric sulfate aerosols has been confirmed through local shipboard measurements, and global modeling studies alike. In order to examine whether such a connection may be recoverable in the satellite record, we have analyzed the correlation between mean surface chlorophyll (CHL) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Southern Ocean, where the marine atmosphere is relatively remote from anthropogenic and continental influences. We carried out the analysis in 5-degree zonal bands between 50 degrees S and 70 degrees S, for the period ( 1997 - 2004), and in smaller meridional sectors in the Eastern Antarctic, Ross and Weddell seas. Seasonality is moderate to strong in both CHL and AOD signatures throughout the study regions. Coherence in the CHL and AOD time series is strong in the band between 50 degrees S and 60 degrees S, however this synchrony is absent in the sea-ice zone (SIZ) south of 60 degrees S. Marked interannual variability in CHL occurs south of 60 degrees S, presumably related to variability in sea-ice production during the previous winter. We find a clear latitudinal difference in the cross correlation between CHL and AOD, with the AOD peak preceding the CHL bloom by up to 6 weeks in the SIZ. This suggests that substantial trace gas emissions ( aerosol precursors) are being produced over the SIZ in spring ( October - December) as sea ice melts. This hypothesis is supported by field data that record extremely high levels of sulfur species in sea ice, surface seawater, and the overlying atmosphere during ice melt.