Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

The respiratory risks of cannabis smoking

Cannabis users have recently been told that cannabis smoking is ª relatively harmlessº 1 and presents ª minimal danger to the lungsº .2 These statements seem at odds with the similarities between the carcinogens and other toxic constituents in tobacco and cannabis smoke, the fact that un® ltered cannabis smoke contains more of some carcinogens than ® ltered tobacco smoke3,4 and other evidence that chronic cannabis smoking has adverse respiratory effects.5

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

MDMA (Ecstasy) neurotoxicity: assessing and communicating the risks

MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) is an amphetamine analogue that produces euphoric and stimulant effects and a feeling of closeness towards others.1 and 2 For more than a decade, MDMA (colloquially known as “Ecstasy” or “E”) has been widely used by young adults as a dance-party drug. The usual recreational oral dose is 1-2 tablets (each containing about 60-120 mg of MDMA) a standard oral dose of 0·75–4·00 mg per kg in 60–80 kg people. MDMA is typically used once fortnightly or less because tolerance to the effects of MDMA develops rapidly. More frequent use requires larger doses to achieve the desired effects, but this increases the prevalence of unpleasant side-effects.3 A number of deaths have occurred as a result of malignant hyperthermia or idiosyncractic reactions to the drug, but these have been rare.4 MDMA is perceived by many users to be a safe drug.1 Few report the craving associated with opiates or cocaine3 and most MDMA users are aware of only mild and transient disruptions of functioning.3 and 5 AC Parrott and J Lasky, Ecstasy (MDMA) effects upon mood and cognition: before, during and after a Saturday night dance, Psychopharmacology 139 (1998), pp. 261–268. Full Text via CrossRef | View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (174)5 The perceived safety of MDMA is at odds with animal evidence of MDMA neurotoxicity, an increasing prevalence of hazardous patterns of use among recreational MDMA users, and emerging evidence of neurotoxicity among heavier MDMA users.

The future of cognitive and behavioral therapies in the prevention and early management of psychosis: Opportunities and risks

Behavioral and cognitive interventions for people with psychosis have a long and distinguished history, although the evidence for their application to young people remains limited. We anticipate that the next decades will show substantial research into psychological intervention for this population. Important targets will include the management of environmental stressors, reduction of substance misuse, and promotion of early treatment. Psychological management of positive symptoms, depression, and suicidal behavior will continue to be critical objectives. Important secondary prevention goals will be the retention of cognitive functioning, vocational options, social skills, and social network support, including appropriate family support. We expect primary prevention to include both universal programs and interventions for adolescents at particularly high risk. Technical innovations will include increasing use of Internet-based intervention and behavior cueing devices. Pressures for intervention brevity will continue, as will problems with the systematic delivery of effective procedures.

The calculation of accident risks in fitness for work assessments: diseases that can cause sudden incapacity

Risk equations have been developed to assist in determining fitness for work of people with diseases that may cause rapid loss of control. The four equations calculate the frequency of fatal injury to the person with the disease, the frequency of fatal injury to colleagues in the workplace, and the cost of fatal injury and property damage to the employer, it is suggested that the additional risk of fatal injury to the person with the disease should not exceed the fatal injury rate in high-risk industries such as forestry, fishing and mining. it is also suggested that the additional risk of fatal injury to each colleague should be no more than one-tenth of the fatal injury rate due to motor vehicle accidents in the community. Two hypothetical case examples are given, demonstrating the use of the equations. The equations highlight the need to examine the risks associated with individuals, their specific jobs and their workplaces. They also highlight significant uncertainties in the determination of fitness, which perhaps have been underestimated in the past. Wherever possible, redundant defences should be utilized to prevent accidents in the event of sudden incapacity.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.