The evolutionary structure of scientific theories

David Hull's (1988c) model of science as a selection process suffers from a two-fold inability: (a) to ascertain when a lineage of theories has been established; i.e., when theories are descendants of older theories or are novelties, and what counts as a distinct lineage; and (b) to specify what the scientific analogue is of genotype and phenotype. This paper seeks to clarify these issues and to propose an abstract model of theories analogous to particulate genetic structure, in order to reconstruct relationships of descent and identity.

Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

Models of alcohol use by young adults: An examination of various attitude-behavior theories

Objective: The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of various attitude-behavior theories in explaining alcohol use among young adults. The theory of reasoned action (TRA), the theory of planned behavior and an extension of the TRA that incorporates past behavior were compared by the method of maximum-likelihood estimation, as implemented in LISREL for Windows 8.12. Method: Respondents consisted of 122 university students (82 female) who were questioned about their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, past behavior and intentions relating to drinking behavior. Students received course credit for their participation in the research. Results: Overall, the results suggest that the extension of the theory of reasoned action which incorporates past behavior provides the best fit to the data. For these young adults, their intentions to drink alcohol were predicted by their past behavior as well as their perceptions of what important others think they should do (subjective norm). Conclusions: The main conclusions drawn from the research concern the importance of focusing on normative influences and past behavior in explaining young adult alcohol use. Issues regarding the relative merit of various alternative models and the need for greater clarity in the measure of attitudes are also discussed.

Virtual plants - integrating architectural and physiological models

Recent advances in computer technology have made it possible to create virtual plants by simulating the details of structural development of individual plants. Software has been developed that processes plant models expressed in a special purpose mini-language based on the Lindenmayer system formalism. These models can be extended from their architectural basis to capture plant physiology by integrating them with crop models, which estimate biomass production as a consequence of environmental inputs. Through this process, virtual plants will gain the ability to react to broad environmental conditions, while crop models will gain a visualisation component. This integration requires the resolution of the fundamentally different time scales underlying the approaches. Architectural models are usually based on physiological time; each time step encompasses the same amount of development in the plant, without regard to the passage of real time. In contrast, physiological models are based in real time; the amount of development in a time step is dependent on environmental conditions during the period. This paper provides a background on the plant modelling language, then describes how widely-used concepts of thermal time can be implemented to resolve these time scale differences. The process is illustrated using a case study. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.