Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

A Fibred Tableau Calculus for Modal Logics of Agents

In previous works we showed how to combine propositional multimodal logics using Gabbay's \emph{fibring} methodology. In this paper we extend the above mentioned works by providing a tableau-based proof technique for the combined/fibred logics. To achieve this end we first make a comparison between two types of tableau proof systems, (\emph{graph} $\&$ \emph{path}), with the help of a scenario (The Friend's Puzzle). Having done that we show how to uniformly construct a tableau calculus for the combined logic using Governatori's labelled tableau system \KEM. We conclude with a discussion on \KEM's features.

BIO Logical Agents: Norms, Beliefs, Intentions in Defeasible Logic

In this paper we follow the BOID (Belief, Obligation, Intention, Desire) architecture to describe agents and agent types in Defeasible Logic. We argue, in particular, that the introduction of obligations can provide a new reading of the concepts of intention and intentionality. Then we examine the notion of social agent (i.e., an agent where obligations prevail over intentions) and discuss some computational and philosophical issues related to it. We show that the notion of social agent either requires more complex computations or has some philosophical drawbacks.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Contextual Deliberation of Cognitive Agents in Defeasible Logic

This article extends Defeasible Logic to deal with the contextual deliberation process of cognitive agents. First, we introduce meta-rules to reason with rules. Meta-rules are rules that have as a consequent rules for motivational components, such as obligations, intentions and desires. In other words, they include nested rules. Second, we introduce explicit preferences among rules. They deal with complex structures where nested rules can be involved.

Linearly-increasing-stress testing of carbon steel in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor

This paper reports the application of linearly increasing stress testing (LIST) to the study of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor. LIST is similar to the constant extension-rate testing (CERT) methodology with the essential difference that the LIST is load controlled whereas the CERT is displacement controlled. The main conclusion is that LIST is suitable for the study of the SCC of carbon steels in 4 N NaNO3 and in Bayer liquor. The low crack velocity in Bayer liquor and a measured maximum stress close to that of the reference specimen in air both indicate that a low applied stress rate is required to study SCC in this system. (C) 1998 Chapman & Hall.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

The Swiss heroin trials: testing alternative approaches

Over half a million heroin misusers receive oral methadone maintenance treatment world-wide1 but the maintenance prescription of injectable opioid drugs, like heroin, remains controversial. In 1992 Switzerland began a large scale evaluation of heroin and other injectable opiate prescribing that eventually involved 1035 misusers. 2 3 The results of the evaluation have recently been reported.4 These show that it was feasible to provide heroin by intravenous injection at a clinic, up to three times a day, for seven days a week. This was done while maintaining good drug control, good order, client safety, and staff morale. Patients were stabilised on 500 to 600 mg heroin daily without evidence of increasing tolerance. Retention in treatment was 89% at six months and 69% at 18 months.4 The self reported use of non-prescribed heroin fell signifianctly, but other drug use was minimally affected. The death rate was 1% per year, and there were no deaths from overdose among participants . . . [Full text of this article]

Synthesis of hydroperoxide and perketal derivatives of polyunsaturated fatty acids as potential antimalarial agents

Hydroperoxide derivatives of beta-oxa-substituted polyunsaturated fatty acids were prepared by 15-lipoxygenase catalysed oxidation and perketal derivatives of fatty acid hydroperoxides were synthesized. The perketals are more stable than their parent fatty acid hydroperoxides, but less active as antimalarial agents in the in vitro growth inhibition of Plasmodium falciparum. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The lobatamides, novel cytotoxic macrolides from southwestern Pacific tunicates

Novel macrolides, lobatamides A-F (1-6), have been isolated from shallow water Australian collections of Aplidium lobatum, from a deep water collection of Aplidium sp., and from an unidentified Philippine ascidian. Full details of the isolation and structure elucidation of 1-6 are provided herein, along with results and analyses of the testing of lobatamides A-D (1-4) in the NCI human tumor 60 cell-line screen. The lobatamides share a common core structure with the recently described salicylihalamides, which were isolated from a Haliclona sp. sponge. COMPARE analyses of the mean-graph differential cytotoxicity profiles of the lobatamides and the salicylihalamides showed high correlations with each other but not with members of the NCI's standard agents database. These compounds, therefore, appear to comprise a new mechanistic class, meriting further antitumor investigations.

Formal derivation of finite state machines for class testing

Previous work on generating state machines for the purpose of class testing has not been formally based. There has also been work on deriving state machines from formal specifications for testing non-object-oriented software. We build on this work by presenting a method for deriving a state machine for testing purposes from a formal specification of the class under test. We also show how the resulting state machine can be used as the basis for a test suite developed and executed using an existing framework for class testing. To derive the state machine, we identify the states and possible interactions of the operations of the class under test. The Test Template Framework is used to formally derive the states from the Object-Z specification of the class under test. The transitions of the finite state machine are calculated from the derived states and the class's operations. The formally derived finite state machine is transformed to a ClassBench testgraph, which is used as input to the ClassBench framework to test a C++ implementation of the class. The method is illustrated using a simple bounded queue example.