An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Hall-Petch parameters for tension and compression in cast Mg

The flow stress in tensile and compressive deformation has been determined in cast Mg, for a wide range of grain sizes between 36 mum and 1.5 mm. The grain size was varied by alloying Mg with small amounts of Zr. It was found that the 0.2% offset flow stress, sigma(y) (MPa), varies with the grain size, d (m), as sigma(y) = 17.7 + 0.25 d(-1/2) in tension, while sigma(y) = -2.3 + 0.39 d(-1/2) in compression. Possible reasons for the difference between tension and compression are discussed.

Challenge-induced plasma exudation and mucinous secretion in human airways

Secretion of mucins and exudation of plasma are distinct processes of importance to innate immunity and inflammatory disease. Yet, little is known about their relation in human airways. The objective of the present study was to use the human nasal airway to determine mucinous secretion and plasma exudation in response to common challenge agents and mediators. Ten healthy volunteers were subjected to nasal challenge-lavage procedures. Thus, the nasal mucosa was exposed to increasing doses of histamine (40 and 400 mu g ml(-1)), methacholine (12.5 and 25 mg) and capsaicin (30 and 300 ng ml(-1)). Fucose was selected as a global marker of mucinous secretion and alpha(2)-macroglobulin as an index of exudation of bulk plasma. All challenge agents increased the mucosal output of fucose to about the same level (P < 0.01-0.05). Once significant secretion had been induced the subsequently increased dose of the challenge agent, in the case of histamine and methacholine, failed to further increase the response. Only histamine increased the mucosal output of alpha(2)-macroglobulin (P < 0.01). We conclude that prompt but potentially rapidly depleted mucinous secretion is common to different kinds of airway challenges, whereas inflammatory histamine-type mediators are required to produce plasma exudation. Along with the acknowledged secretion of mucins, a practically non-depletable, pluripotent mucosal output of plasma emerges as an important component of the innate immunity of human airways.

Secretoneurin is released into human airways by topical histamine but not capsaicin

Background: The neuropeptide secretoneurin, with potential relevance to leukocyte trafficking, is present in nerves of the nasal mucosa in allergic rhinitis and may be released in response to allergen and histamine exposure. There is no information on the occurrence and mechanisms of release of secretoneurin in healthy human airways. Methods: The presence of secretoneurin in nasal biopsies and its release in response to nasal capsaicin and histamine challenges were examined. Symptoms and lavage fluid levels of fucose were recorded as markers of effects in part produced by neural activity. Bronchial histamine challenges followed by sputum induction and analysis of secretoneurin were also carried out. Results: Nerves displaying secretoneurin immunoreactivity abounded in the nasal mucosa. Nasal capsaicin challenge produced local pain (P < 0.05) and increased the levels of fucose (P < 0.05), but failed to affect the levels of secretoneurin. Nasal histamine challenge produced symptoms (P < 0.05) and increased the mucosal output of secretoneurin (P < 0.05) and fucose (P < 0.05). Bronchial histamine challenge increased the sputum levels of secretoneurin (P < 0.05). Conclusions: We conclude that secretoneurin is present in healthy human airways and that histamine evokes its release in both nasal and bronchial mucosae. The present observations support the possibility that secretoneurin is involved in histamine-dependent responses of the human airway mucosa.

Composite auction method for suppressing unreasonable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market

The existence of undesirable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market requires an efficient auction mechanism. However, many of the existing auction mechanism have difficulties in suppressing such unreasonable price spikes effectively. A new auction mechanism is proposed to suppress effectively unreasonable price spikes in a competitive electricity market. It optimally combines system marginal price auction and pay as bid auction mechanisms. A threshold value is determined to activate the switching between the marginal price auction and the proposed composite auction. Basically when the system marginal price is higher than the threshold value, the composite auction for high price electricity market is activated. The winning electricity sellers will sell their electricity at the system marginal price or their own bid prices, depending on their rights of being paid at the system marginal price and their offers' impact on suppressing undesirable price spikes. Such economic stimuli discourage sellers from practising economic and physical withholdings. Multiple price caps are proposed to regulate strong market power. We also compare other auction mechanisms to highlight the characteristics of the proposed one. Numerical simulation using the proposed auction mechanism is given to illustrate the procedure of this new auction mechanism.

Transmission planning in a deregulated environment

The worldwide trend for the deregulation of the electricity generation and transmission industries has led to dramatic changes in system operation and planning procedures. The optimum approach to transmission-expansion planning in a deregulated environment is an open problem especially when the responsibilities of the organisations carrying out the planning work need to be addressed. To date there is a consensus that the system operator and network manager perform the expansion planning work in a centralised way. However, with an increasing input from the electricity market, the objectives, constraints and approaches toward transmission planning should be carefully designed to ensure system reliability as well as meeting the market requirements. A market-oriented approach for transmission planning in a deregulated environment is proposed. Case studies using the IEEE 14-bus system and the Australian national electricity market grid are performed. In addition, the proposed method is compared with a traditional planning method to further verify its effectiveness.

Information systems maturity in e-business organizations

E-Business Information Systems (eBIS) are Information Systems (IS) that support organizations to realize their e-Business strategy resulting in various benefits. Therefore those systems strongly focus on fulfilment of the e-business requirements. In order to realise the expected benefits, organizations need to turn to their eBIS and measure the maturity of those systems. In doing so, they need to identify the status of those systems with regards to their suitability to support the e-Business strategy, while also identifying required IS improvements. In our research we aim to develop a maturity model, particularly dedicated to the area of e-Business Information Systems, which can be used easily and objectively to measure of the current maturity of any Information System that supports e-Business. This research-in-progress paper presents initial results of our research.

A framework of issues in large process modeling projects

As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.

The co-evolutionary dynamics of IS engagement

In this paper we consider the co-evolutionary dynamics of IS engagement where episodic change of implementation increasingly occurs within the context of linkages and interdependencies between systems and processes within and across organisations. Although there are many theories that interpret the various motors of change be it lifecycle, teleological, dialectic or evolutionary, our paper attempts to move towards a unifying view of change by studying co-evolutionary dynamics from a complex systems perspective. To understand how systems and organisations co-evolve in practice and how order emerges, or fails to emerge, we adopt complex adaptive systems theory to incorporate evolutionary and teleological motors, and actor-network theory to incorporate dialectic motors. We illustrate this through the analysis of the implementation of a novel academic scheduling system at a large research-intensive Australian university.