Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethics and health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations

Although considerable attention has been given to ethical issues related to clinical research in developing countries, in particular related to HIV therapy, there has been limited focus on health systems research, despite its increasing importance in the light of current trends in development assistance. This paper examines ethical issues related to health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations, addressing both generic issues for developing countries and those issues specific to 'post'-conflict societies, citing examples from the author's Cambodian experience. It argues that the destruction of health infrastructure results in a loss of structures and processes that would otherwise protect prospective research subjects who are part of vulnerable populations. It identifies the growth of health systems research as part of a trend towards sectoral and programmatic development assistance, the emergence of 'knowledge generation' as a form of research linked to development, and the potential for conflict where multilateral and bilateral donors are both primary funders and users of health systems research. It also examines the position of the health system researcher in relation to the sponsors of this research, and the health system being analysed.

The preparation of reach-to-grasp movements in adults, children, and children with movement problems

This study explored the use of advance information in the control of reach-to-grasp movements. The paradigm required participants to reach and grasp illuminated blocks with their right hand. Four target blocks were positioned on a table surface, two each side of the mid-saggital plane. In the complete precue condition, advance information precisely specified target location. In the partial precue condition, advance information indicated target location relative to the midsaggital plane (left or right). In the null condition, the advance information was entirely ambiguous. Participants produced fastest responses in the complete precue condition, intermediate response times in the partial condition, and the slowest responses in the null condition. This result was observed in adults and four groups of children including a group aged 4-6 years. In contrast, children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD, n = 11, aged 7-13 years) showed no advantage of partial precueing. Movement duration was determined by target location but was unaffected by precue condition. Movement duration was a clear function of age apart from children in the DCD group who showed equivalent movement times to those of the youngest children. These findings provide important insights into the control of reach-to-grasp movements and highlight that partial cues are exploited by children as young as 4 years but are not used in situations of abnormal development.

Responding to interpersonal and physically provoking situations in classrooms: emotional intensity in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

The present research investigated the emotional functioning of children with and without Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), in order to examine the relationships between emotional intensity and classroom-based responses to physically and interpersonally provoking situations. Seventy children (35 with ADHD and 35 without ADHD) in Years 3–8 participated and were matched on age, gender, grade, and school class. Each child was observed individually in the classroom over two 20-min periods. The Responses to Interpersonal and Physically Provoking Situations Observation Schedule was used to record the frequency and severity of responses and the triggers for these during the observational periods. Children later rated their emotional intensity in response to hypothetical scenarios on the Emotional Intensity Scale for Children. Results revealed children with ADHD displayed significantly more frequent and severe challenging and solitary off-task behaviours, and significantly more frequent vocalisations and severe interactional off-task behaviours. For triggers, environmental and teacher-initiated distractions were significantly more frequently observed in children with ADHD. There were no differences in ratings of emotional intensity between children with and without ADHD, although a number of significant and meaningful correlations were observed between positive emotional intensity scores and responses and triggers.