Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Habitat use by Darling Downs population of the grassland earless dragon: implications for conservation.

A population of the grassland earless dragon (Tympanocryptis pinguicolla) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia, had been considered extinct until its recent rediscovery. We determined factors affecting grassland earless dragon abundance and prey availability in 3 habitats. Mean dragon body condition and prey numbers were higher in sorghum than grasslands and grass verges. Poisson regression analyses indicated that the dragon numbers were 10 times higher in sorghum, and that this may result from differences in prey numbers as well as other habitat conditions. Tracking data indicated selection of open versus closed microhabitat. Sorghum planted in rows provided alternating open and closed microhabitats for optimal thermoregulation conditions. Grasslands and grass verges were more uniformly shaded. Of individuals we tracked in the sorghum stubble, 85.7% used litter as overnight refuges. Litter was abundant in sorghum and sparse in grass habitats. The practices of minimum tillage and resting stubble strips possibly mitigate agricultural impacts on dragons and provide continuous access to suitable habitat. Changes in agricultural practices that affect the habitat suitability will potentially have detrimental impacts on the population. Our data suggest that conservation efforts be focused on maintaining suitability of habitats in crop fields. We recommend monitoring dragon abundance at control and trial sites of any new agricultural practices; this will provide opportunity to modify or stop undesirable practices before adoption by farmers. Conservation agencies may use our data as a baseline for monitoring long-term viability of the population.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

Performance of improved guayule lines in Australia

Guayule (Parthenium argentatum Gray) is a potential source of commercial natural rubber. Its commercialisation depends mainly on economical plant production. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of improved lines in Australia. Seeds from five improved lines (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-3, AZ-5 and AZ-6) and two previously developed guayule lines (N 565 and 11591) were obtained from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Seedlings from these lines were grown in a glasshouse for 3 months and later transplanted in a field experiment in early September 2001. Plant height and width were monitored from transplanting to 62 weeks at regular intervals. After 62 weeks, plant dry matter production, rubber and resin content, and yields were analysed. Plant height and width of the improved lines were higher than N 565 and 11591. Plant dry matter, rubber and resin yields were significantly different among lines. Of the five lines, AZ-1 and AZ-2 produced rubber yields of 620 and 550 kg/ha, respectively and these yields were significantly greater than for N 565 (371 kg/ha) and 11591 (391 kg/ha). AZ-1 and AZ-2 also produced significantly higher resin yields, 727 and 668 kg/ha, respectively, than those for N 565 (436 kg/ha) and 11591 (325 kg/ha). Rubber and resin yield increase of lines, AZ-1 and AZ-2, were in the range of 41-68% and 53-123%, respectively over N 565 and 11591. AZ-1 tended to produce higher rubber and resin yields than AZ-2 but exhibited highly variable plant height (CV = 25%) and width (CV = 41%) indicating potential for further genetic improvement. AZ-2 offers the best combination of desirable characters including early vigour, uniformity and comparatively higher rubber and resin yields. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Decomposition of nitrogen-15 labeled hoop pine harvest residues in subtropical Australia

Information on decomposition of harvest residues may assist in the maintenance of soil fertility in second rotation (2R) hoop pine plantations (Araucaria cunninghamii Aiton ex A. Cunn.) of subtropical Australia. The experiment was undertaken to determine the dynamics of residue decomposition and fate of residue-derived N. We used N-15-labeled hoop pine foliage, branch, and stem material in microplots, over a 30-mo period following harvesting. We examined the decomposition of each component both singly and combined, and used C-13 cross-polarization and magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (C-13 CPMAS NMR) to chart C transformations in decomposing foliage. Residue-derived N-15 was immobilized in the 0- to 5-cm soil layer, with approximately 40% N-15 recovery in the soil from the combined residues by the end of the 30-mo period. Total recovery of N-15 in residues and soil varied between 60 and 80% for the combined-residue microplots, with 20 to 40% of the residue N-15 apparently lost. When residues were combined within microplots the rate of foliage decomposition decreased by 30% while the rate of branch and stem decomposition increased by 50 and 40% compared with rates for these components when decomposed separately. Residue decomposition studies should include a combined-residue treatment. Based on C-15 CPMAS NMR spectra for decomposing foliage, we obtained good correlations for methoxyl C, aryl C, carbohydrate C and phenolic C with residue mass, N-15 enrichment, and total N. The ratio of carbohydrate C to methoxyl C may be useful as an indicator of harvest residue decomposition in hoop pine plantations.

The fatty acid composition of muscle and adipose tissues from entire and castrated male Boer goats raised in Australia

The fatty acid composition of longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle and adipose tissues (subcutaneous and intermuscular fat) from castrated and entire male Boer goat bucks was investigated. Sixty Boer bucks in groups of between three and five animals were slaughtered at 5, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 and 105 kg live weight (5 and 15 kg animals were not castrated). The fatty acid composition of LT muscle from castrated and entire Boers was significantly affected by slaughter weight. The fatty acid content of LT muscle and subcutaneous and intermuscular fat from both castrated and entire Boer bucks was primarily composed of oleic acid followed by palmitic and stearic acid. Both oleic and palmitic acid increased with slaughter weight whereas stearic acid decreased. LT muscle from castrated Boer bucks contained higher amounts of desirable fatty acids. In contrast to slaughter weight, castration of Boer bucks resulted in only minor changes in fatty acid composition of adipose tissues. It can be concluded that slaughter weight plays a role in changing the fatty acid composition of LT muscle and adipose tissues from Boer bucks.

A genetic linkage map in autotetraploid lucerne adapted to northern Australia, and use of the map to identify DNA markers linked to resistance to Phytophthora medicaginis

Phytophthora root rot, caused by Phytophthora medicaginis, is a major limitation to lucerne ( Medicago sativa L.) production in Australia and North America. Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) involved in resistance to P. medicaginis were identified in a lucerne backcross population of 120 individuals. A genetic linkage map was constructed for tetraploid lucerne using 50 RAPD ( randomly amplified polymorphic DNA), 104 AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) markers, and one SSR ( simple sequence repeat or microsatellite) marker, which originated from the resistant parent (W116); 13 markers remain unlinked. The linkage map contains 18 linkage groups covering 2136.5 cM, with an average distance of 15.0 cM between markers. Four of the linkage groups contained only either 2 or 3 markers. Using duplex markers and repulsion phase linkages the map condensed to 7 homology groups and 2 unassigned linkage groups. Three regions located on linkage groups 2, 14, and 18, were identified as associated with root reaction and the QTLs explained 6 - 15% of the phenotypic variation. The research also indicates that different resistance QTLs are involved in conferring resistance in different organs. Two QTLs were identified as associated with disease resistance expressed after inoculation of detached leaves. The marker, W11-2 on group 18, identified as associated with root reaction, contributed 7% of the phenotypic variation in leaf response in our population. This marker appears to be linked to a QTL encoding a resistance factor contributing to both root and leaf reaction. One other QTL, not identified as associated with root reaction, was positioned on group 1 and contributed to 6% of the variation. This genetic linkage map provides an entry point for future molecular-based improvement of lucerne in Australia, and markers linked to the QTLs we have reported should be useful for marker-assisted selection for partial resistance to P. medicaginis in lucerne.

Genetic variability of Tomato spotted wilt virus in Australia and validation of real time RT-PCR for its detection in single and bulked leaf samples

The potential for large-scale use of a sensitive real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was evaluated for the detection of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in single and bulked leaf samples by comparing its sensitivity with that of DAS-ELISA. Using total RNA extracted with RNeasy (R) or leaf soak methods, real time RT-PCR detected TSWV in all infected samples collected from 16 horticultural crop species (including flowers, herbs and vegetables), two arable crop species, and four weed species by both assays. In samples in which DAS-ELISA had previously detected TSWV, real time RT-PCR was effective at detecting it in leaf tissues of all 22 plant species tested at a wide range of concentrations. Bulk samples required more robust and extensive extraction methods with real time RT-PCR, but it generally detected one infected sample in 1000 uninfected ones. By contrast, ELISA was less sensitive when used to test bulked samples, once detecting up to I infected in 800 samples with pepper but never detecting more than I infected in 200 samples in tomato and lettuce. It was also less reliable than real time RT-PCR when used to test samples from parts of the leaf where the virus concentration was low. The genetic variability among Australian isolates of TSWV was small. Direct sequencing of a 587 bp region of the nucleoprotein gene (S RNA) of 29 isolates from diverse crops and geographical locations yielded a maximum of only 4.3% nucleotide sequence difference. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no obvious groupings of isolates according to geographic origin or host species. TSWV isolates, that break TSWV resistance genes in tomato or pepper did not differ significantly in the N gene region studied, indicating that a different region of the virus genome is responsible for this trait.

Seasonal variations of phenolic compounds in Australia-grown tea (Camellia sinensis)

Seasonal variations of phenolic compounds in fresh tea shoots grown in Australia were studied using an HPLC method. Three principal tea flavanols [epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), epicatechin gallate (ECG), and epigallocatechin (EGC)] and four grouped phenolics [total catechins (Cs), total catechin gallates (CGs), total flavanols (Fla), and total polyphenols (PPs)] in fresh tea shoots were analyzed and compared during the commercial harvest seasons from April 2000 to May 2001. The levels of EGCG, ECG, and CGs in the fresh tea shoots were higher in the warm months of April 2000 (120.52, 34.50, and 163.75 mg/g, respectively) and May 2000 (128.63, 44.26, and 183.83 mg/g, respectively) and lower during the cool months of July 2000 (91.39, 35.16, and 132.30 mg/g, respectively), August 2000 (91.31, 31.56, and 128.64 mg/g, respectively), and September 2000 (96.12, 33.51, and 136.90 mg/g, respectively). Thereafter, the levels increased throughout the warmer months from October to December 2000 and remained high until May 2001. In the warmer months, the levels of EGCG, ECG, and CGs were in most cases significantly higher (P < 0.05) than those in the samples harvested in the cooler months. In contrast, the levels of EGC and Cs were high and consistent in the cooler months and low in the warmer months. The seasonal variations of the individual and grouped catechins were significant (P < 0.05) between the cooler and warmer months. This study revealed that EGCG and ECG could be used as quality descriptors for monitoring the seasonal variations of phenolics in Australia-grown tea leaves, and the ratio (EGCG + ECG)/EGC has been suggested as a quality index for measuring the differences in flavanol levels in fresh tea shoots across the growing seasons. Mechanisms that induce seasonal variations in tea shoots may include one or all three of the following environmental conditions: day length, sunlight, and/or temperature, which vary markedly across seasons. Therefore, further studies under controlled conditions such as in a greenhouse may be required to direct correlate flavonoid profiles of green tea leaves with their yields and also to with conditions such as rainfall and humidity.