A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How cost efficient are Australia's mining industries?

This paper uses a stochastic translog cost frontier model and a panel data of five key mining industries in Australia over 1968-1969 to 1994-1995 to investigate the sources of output growth and the effects of cost inefficiency on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate that mining output growth was largely input-driven rather than productivity-driven. Although there were some gains from technological progress and economics of scale in production, cost inefficiency which barely exceeded 1.1% since the mid-1970s in the mining industries was the main factor causing low TFP growth. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the seasonal influence of sewage and agricultural nutrient inputs in a subtropical river estuary

A combination of physical and chemical measurements and biological indicators identified nutrient impacts throughout an Australian subtropical river estuary. This was a balance of sewage inputs in the lower river and agricultural inputs in the mid-upper river, the combined influence being greater in the wet season due to greater agricultural surface runoff. Field sampling in the region was conducted at 6 sites within the river, over 5 surveys to encapsulate both wet and dry seasonal effects. Parameters assessed were tissue nitrogen (N) contents and delta(15)N signatures of mangroves and macroalgae, phytoplankton nutrient addition bioassays, and standard physical and chemical variables. Strong spatial (within river) and temporal (seasonal) variability was observed in all parameters. Poorest water quality was detected in the middle (agricultural) region of the river in the wet season, attributable to large diffuse inputs in this region. Water quality towards the river mouth remained constant irrespective of season due to strong oceanic flushing. Mangrove and macroalgal tissue delta(15)N and %N proved a successful combination for discerning sewage and agricultural inputs. Elevated delta(15)N and %N represented sewage inputs, whereas low delta(15)N and elevated %N was indicative of agricultural inputs. Phytoplankton bioassays found the system to be primarily responsive to nutrient additions in the warmer wet season, with negligible responses observed in the cooler dry season. These results indicate that the Tweed River is sensitive to the different anthropogenic activities in its catchment and that each activity has a unique influence on receiving water quality.

Managing woodlands for income maximisation in western Queensland, Australia: clearing for grazing versus timber production

Queensland, Australia, has a proud pastoral history; however, the private and social benefits of continued woodland clearing for pasture development are unlikely to be as pronounced as they had been in the past. The environmental benefits of tree retention in and regions of the State are now better appreciated and market opportunities have arisen for the unique timbers of western Queensland. A financial model is developed to facilitate a comparison of the private profitability of small-scale timber production from remnant Acacia woodlands against clearing for pasture development in the Mulga Lands and Desert Uplands bioregions of western Queensland. Four small-scale timber production scenarios, which differ in target markets and the extent of processing (value-adding), are explored within the model. Each scenario is examined for the cases where property rights to the timber are vested with the timber processor, and where royalties are payable. For both cases of resource ownership, at least one scenario generates positive returns from timber production, and exceeds the net farm income per hectare for an average grazing property in the study regions over the period 1989-1990 to 2000-2001. The net present value per hectare of selectively harvesting and processing high-value clearwood from remnant western Queensland woodlands is found to be greater than clearing for grazing. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

Performance of improved guayule lines in Australia

Guayule (Parthenium argentatum Gray) is a potential source of commercial natural rubber. Its commercialisation depends mainly on economical plant production. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of improved lines in Australia. Seeds from five improved lines (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-3, AZ-5 and AZ-6) and two previously developed guayule lines (N 565 and 11591) were obtained from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Seedlings from these lines were grown in a glasshouse for 3 months and later transplanted in a field experiment in early September 2001. Plant height and width were monitored from transplanting to 62 weeks at regular intervals. After 62 weeks, plant dry matter production, rubber and resin content, and yields were analysed. Plant height and width of the improved lines were higher than N 565 and 11591. Plant dry matter, rubber and resin yields were significantly different among lines. Of the five lines, AZ-1 and AZ-2 produced rubber yields of 620 and 550 kg/ha, respectively and these yields were significantly greater than for N 565 (371 kg/ha) and 11591 (391 kg/ha). AZ-1 and AZ-2 also produced significantly higher resin yields, 727 and 668 kg/ha, respectively, than those for N 565 (436 kg/ha) and 11591 (325 kg/ha). Rubber and resin yield increase of lines, AZ-1 and AZ-2, were in the range of 41-68% and 53-123%, respectively over N 565 and 11591. AZ-1 tended to produce higher rubber and resin yields than AZ-2 but exhibited highly variable plant height (CV = 25%) and width (CV = 41%) indicating potential for further genetic improvement. AZ-2 offers the best combination of desirable characters including early vigour, uniformity and comparatively higher rubber and resin yields. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Benthic microalgae in coral reef sediments of the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The abundance and productivity of benthic microalgae in coral reef sediments are poorly known compared with other, more conspicuous (e.g. coral zooxanthellae, macroalgae) primary producers of coral reef habitats. A survey of the distribution, biomass, and productivity of benthic microalgae on a platform reef flat and in a cross-shelf transect in the southern Great Barrier Reef indicated that benthic microalgae are ubiquitous, abundant (up to 995.0 mg chlorophyll (chl) a m(-2)), and productive (up to 110 mg O-2 m(-2) h(-1)) components of the reef ecosystem. Concentrations of benthic microalgae, expressed as chlorophyll a per surface area, were approximately 100-fold greater than the integrated water column concentrations of microalgae throughout the region. Benthic microalgal biomass was greater on the shallow water platform reef than in the deeper waters of the cross-shelf transect. In both areas the benthic microalgal communities had a similar composition, dominated by pennate diatoms, dinoflagellates, and cyanobacteria. Benthic microalgal populations were potentially nutrient-limited, based on responses to nitrogen and phosphorus enrichments in short-term (7-day) microcosm experiments. Benthic microalgal productivity, measured by O-2 evolution, indicated productive communities responsive to light and nutrient availability. The benthic microalgal concentrations observed (92-995 mg chl a m(-2)) were high relative to other reports, particularly compared with temperate regions. This abundance of productive plants in both reef and shelf sediments in the southern Great Barrier Reef suggests that benthic microalgae are key components of coral reef ecosystems.

Economic Impact of E.coli 0111 Outbreak in 1995 in Australia

Increased incidence of food-borne illnesses is a matter of significant concern for the community and the government alike. An outbreak of E.coli O111 that occurred in Australia in 1995 affected 200 people of whom 22 developed HUS while one person died. This study analyses the economic costs of the outbreak. The total cost of the outbreak is estimated to be A$5.61 million. Productivity loss represented the highest percentage of outbreak costs (66%) due to death, disability and chronic illness. The direct medical costs contributed 33%. The estimated loss could be even higher if all costs could be quantified. Nevertheless, the findings provide an idea to the policy maker regarding the extent and nature of the damage that could result from an outbreak. The severity of the damage warrants allocation of necessary resources to prevent such occurrences.

The productivity-inflation nexus: The case of the Australian mining sector

This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth.