An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of exterior wall to warehouse.

Downpipes, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of downpipes and drainage grill.

PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past tiered amphitheatre and offices above to air strip beyond.

View along western elevation, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View past timber blinds to balcony and timber sunscreens.

Under construction, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of post being hoisted into position during construction.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of warehouse exterior.

Pole detail, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of poles used in construction. Poles were spliced in their length with steel bars (like 3 pin plugs) and these joints were restrained from splitting with steel strap belts. The belts were tightened with opposing wedges like the old Greene & Greene wrought iron detail.

Warehouse, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of warehouse exterior.

Roof structure, internal, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View to underside of roof with steel beam and insulation.

Post and beam connection, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of cast iron brackets connecting beams and posts.

Front elevation, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

View of front elevation with entrance from exterior.

Post and beam connection, PNG Coffee Industry Board Office and Warehouse, Goroka

Detailed view of cast iron brackets connecting beams and posts.