Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of age on weight-bearing joint reposition sense of the knee

Knee joint-position sensitivity has been shown to decline with increasing age, with much of the research reported in the literature investigating this age effect in non-weight-bearing (NWB) conditions. However, little data is available in the more functional position of weight-bearing conditions. The objective of this study was to identify the influence of age on the accuracy and nature of knee joint-position sense (JPS) in both full weight-bearing (FWB) and partial weight-bearing (PWB) conditions and to determine the effect of lower-extremity dominance on knee JPS. Sixty healthy subjects from three age groups (young: 20-35 years old, middle-aged: 40-55 years, and older: 60-75 years) were assessed. Tests were conducted on both the right and left legs to examine the ability of subjects to correctly reproduce knee angles in an active criterion-active repositioning paradigm. Knee angles were measured in degrees using an electromagnetic tracking device, Polhemus 3Space Fastrak, that detected positions of sensors placed on the test limb. Errors in FWB knee joint repositioning did not increase with age, but significant age-related increases in knee joint-repositioning error were found in PWB. It was found that elderly subjects tended to overshoot the criterion angle more often than subjects from the young and middle-aged groups. Subjects in all three age groups performed better in FWB than in PWB. Differences between the stance-dominant (STD) and skill-dominant (SKD) legs did not reach significance. Results demonstrated that for, normal pain-free individuals, there is no age-related decline in knee JPS in FWB, although an age effect does exist in PWB. This outcome challenges the current view that a generalised decline in knee joint proprioception occurs with age. In addition, lower-limb dominance is not a factor in acuity of knee JPS.