Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

Major demographic changes in Bangladesh and their socio-economic correlates: Analysis of trends

Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable with the South-East Asia region as whole. The study isolates factors contributing to the changes in each attribute. It assesses the correlation between Bangladesh’s demographic changes and selected socio-economic indicators namely, its per capita GDP, female labour force participation, per capita public health expenditure and educational achievements by both men and women. All five socio-economic variables display statistically significant correlation, in varying degrees, with measures of the demographic changes. Per capita GDP is probably the most significant determinant of demographic changes in Bangladesh. The study observes that men’s education reinforces women’s education and with increased workforce participation contributed to reduced fertility. The study suggests that the role of family planning programs in curbing population growth in Bangladesh maybe overestimated.

A clinical audit of the prescribing of celecoxib and rofecoxib in Australian rural general practice

Aims The new cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) selective inhibitors, celecoxib (Celebrex®) and rofecoxib (Vioxx®), have been widely prescribed since their launch. No reviews currently appear in the literature of prescribing patterns in Australia. This paper describes a self-audit of the clinical use of selective COX-2 inhibitor therapy undertaken with rural general practitioners (GPs) in Australia. Methods A structured audit form was developed and distributed to interested GPs. The form was self-administered and focused on issues about COX-2 inhibitors and the types of patients who were receiving them, e.g. indications, patient demographics, risk factors and drug interactions. Results A total of 627 patients were recruited (569 celecoxib and 58 rofecoxib). A range of doses was prescribed. Osteoarthritis was the most common indication (68.1%). Risk factors known for the nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified in 65.1% of patients, with the most common being advanced age, hypertension and previous peptic ulcer disease. Potential drug interactions were common. A variety of reasons for initiation of therapy was identified; these included perceived increased efficacy, safety and failure of other treatment. Conclusions These results show that COX-2 inhibitors are being prescribed for patients with multiple risk factors that may place the patient at increased risk of adverse drug reactions to a COX-2 inhibitor. The perception of improved safety and efficacy was common and is of concern. Limitations of the study include the reliance on self-reporting.

Risk factors for development of delirium among oncology patients

To determine the occurrence of delirium in oncology inpatients and to identify and evaluate admission characteristics associated with the development of delirium during inpatient admission, a prospective observational study was conducted of H 3 patients with a total of 145 admissions with histological diagnosis of cancer admitted to the oncology unit over a period of ten weeks. At the point of inpatient admission, all patients were assessed for the presence of potential risk factors for development of delirium. During the index admission patients were assessed daily for the presence of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method. Delirium was confirmed by clinician assessment. Delirium developed in 26 of 145 admissions (18%) and 32 episodes of delirium were recorded with 6 patients having 2 episodes of delirium during the index admission. Delirium occurred on average 3.3 days into the admission. The average duration of an episode of delirium was 2.1 day. Four patients with delirium (15%) died. All other cases of delirium were reversed. Factors significantly associated with development of delirium on multivariate analysis were: advanced age, cognitive impairment, low albumin level, bone metastases, and the presence of hematological malignancy. Hospital inpatient admission was significantly longer in delirium group (mean: 8.8 days vs 4.5 days in nondelirium group, P

Brachial blood pressure but not carotid arterial waveforms predict cardiovascular events in elderly female hypertensives

Central arterial waveforms and related indices of large artery properties can be determined with relative ease. This would make them an attractive adjunct in the risk stratification for cardiovascular disease. Although they have been associated with some classical risk factors and the presence of coronary disease, their prospective value in predicting cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. The present study determined the relative predictive value for cardiovascular disease-free survival of large artery properties as compared with noninvasive brachial blood pressure alone in a population of elderly female hypertensive subjects. We measured systemic arterial compliance, central systolic pressure, and carotid augmentation index in a subset of female participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study ( untreated blood pressure 169/88 +/- 12/ 8 mm Hg). There were a total of 53 defined events during a median of 4.1 years of follow-up in 484 women with complete measurements. Although baseline blood pressures at the brachial artery predicted cardiovascular disease-free survival ( hazard ratio [HR], 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.1 for pulse pressure >= 81 versus < 81 mm Hg; P = 0.01), no such relation was found for carotid augmentation index ( HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.44; P value not significant) or systemic arterial compliance ( HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.72 to 2.16; P value not significant). Blood pressure, but not noninvasively measured central arterial waveforms, predict outcome in the older female hypertensive patient. Thus, blood pressure measurement alone is superior to measurement of arterial waveforms in predicting outcome in this group.

Modifying insect population age structure to control vector-borne disease

Age is a critical determinant of the ability of most arthropod vectors to transmit a range of human pathogens. This is due to the fact that most pathogens require a period of extrinsic incubation in the arthropod host before pathogen transmission can occur. This developmental period for the pathogen often comprises a significant proportion of the expected lifespan of the vector. As such, only a small proportion of the population that is oldest contributes to pathogen transmission. Given this, strategies that target vector age would be expected to obtain the most significant reductions in the capacity of a vector population to transmit disease. The recent identification of biological agents that shorten vector lifespan, such as Wolbachia, entomopathogenic fungi and densoviruses, offer new tools for the control of vector-borne diseases. Evaluation of the efficacy of these strategies under field conditions will be possible due to recent advances in insect age-grading techniques. Implementation of all of these strategies will require extensive field evaluation and consideration of the selective pressures that reductions in vector longevity may induce on both vector and pathogen.

HLA class II antigens positively and negatively associated with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in a Chinese population

To identify possible associations between host genetic factors and the onset of liver fibrosis following Schistosoma japonicum infection, the major histocompatibility class II alleles of 84 individuals living on an island (Jishan) endemic for schistosomiasis japonica in the Poyang Lake Region of Southern China were determined. Forty patients exhibiting advanced schistosomiasis, characterised by extensive liver fibrosis, and 44 age and sex-matched control subjects were assessed for the class II haplotypes HLA-DRBI and HLA-DQB1. Two HLA-DRB1 alleles, HLA-DRB1*0901 (P = 0.012) and *1302 (P = 0.039), and two HLA-DQB1 alleles, HLA-DQB1*0303 (P = 0.012) and *0609 (P = 0.037), were found to be significantly associated with susceptibility to fibrosis. These associated DRB1 and DQB1 alleles are in very strong linkage disequilibrium, with DRB1*0901-DQB1*0303 and DRB1*1302-DQB1*0609 found as: common haplotypes in this population. In contrast, the alleles HLA-DRB1*1501 (P = 0.025) and HLA-DQB 1*0601 (P = 0.022) were found to be associated with resistance to hepatosplenic disease. Moreover, the alleles DQB1*0303 and DRB1*0901 did not increase susceptibility in the presence of DQB1*0601, indicating that DQB1*0601 is dominant over DQB1*0303 and DRB1*0901. The study has thus identified both positive and negative associations between HLA class II alleles and the risk of individuals developing moderate to severe liver fibrosis following schistosome infection. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Greene Climacteric Scale: norms in an Australian population in relation to age and menopausal status

Objectives The aim of this study was two-fold: to assess climacteric symptoms and provide normative data for the Greene Climacteric Scale during the menopause transition, and to investigate the prevalence of climacteric symptoms in a representative sample of postmenopausal Australian women. Method A cohort of 500 premenopausal, perimenopausal and postmenopausal women aged 40-80 years participated in the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in Women (LAW study) at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. In year 1 of the study (2001), all participants completed the Greene Climacteric Scale and information regarding their menopausal status and the use of hormone therapy (HT) was obtained through a clinical interview with a qualified medical practitioner. Results The 50-59-year age group achieved the highest scores on the vasomotor and the depression scales in comparison to other age groups. Significant differences were also evident on the vasomotor and the depression scales on the basis of menopausal status, especially in perimenopausal women. Approximately 10% of women in the 60-79-year age group continued to experience vasomotor symptoms. Conclusion Vasomotor symptoms, as assessed by the Greene Climacteric Scale, are common during the menopause transition and remain elevated for some years in a minority of older postmenopausal women. The norms presented in this study are appropriate for use in an Australian population.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

Allelic Variation Investigation of the Estrogen Receptor Within an Australian Multiple Sclerosis Population

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a central nervous system (CNS) chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease leading to various neurological disabilities. The disorder is more prevalent for women with a ratio of 3:2 female to male. Objectives: To investigate variation within the estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) polymorphism gene in an Australian MS case-control population using two intragenic restriction fragment length polymorphisms; the G594A located in exon 8 detected with the BtgI restriction enzyme and T938C located in intron 1, detected with PvuII. One hundred and ten Australian MS patients were studied, with patients classified clinically as Relapsing Remitting MS (RR-MS), Secondary Progressive MS (SP-MS) or Primary Progressive MS (PP-MS). Also, 110 age, sex and ethnicity matched controls were investigated as a comparative group. No significant difference in the allelic distribution frequency was found between the case and control groups for the ESR1 PvuII (P = 0.50) and Btg1 (P = 0.45) marker. Our results do not support a role for these two ESR1 markers in multiple sclerosis susceptibility, however other markers within ESR1 should not be excluded for potential involvement in the disorder.

Host age effect and expression of cytoplasmic incompatibility in field populations of Wolbachia-superinfected Aedes albopictus

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a known vector of dengue in South America and Southeast Asia. It is naturally superinfected with two strains of Wolbachia endosymbiont that are able to induce cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). In this paper, we report the strength of CI expression in crosses involving field-caught males. CI expression was found to be very strong in all crosses between field males and laboratory-reared uninfected or wAlbA infected young females. In addition, crossing experiments with laboratory colonies showed that aged super- infected males could express strong CI when mated with young uninfected or wAlbA infected females. These results provide additional evidence that the CI properties of Wolbachia infecting Aedes albopictus are well suited for applied strategies that seek to utilise Wolbachia for host population modification.

Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: An underutilized resource

A meeting was convened in Canberra, Australia, at the request of the Australian Drug Evaluation Committee (ADEC), on December 3-4, 1997 to discuss the role of population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in drug evaluation and development. The ADEC was particularly concerned about registration of drugs in the pediatric age group. The population approach could be used more often than is currently the case in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies to provide valuable information for the safe and effective use of drugs in neonates, infants, and children. The meeting ultimately broadened to include discussion about other subgroups. The main conclusions of the meeting were: 1. The population approach, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis, is a valuable tool both for drug registration purposes and for optimal dosing of drugs in specific groups of patients, 2. Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies are able to fill in the gaps' in registration of drugs, for example, to provide information on optimal pediatric dosing. Such studies provide a basis for enhancing product information to improve rational prescribing, 3. Expertise is required to perform the population studies and expertise, with a clinical perspective, is also required to evaluate such studies if they are to be submitted as part of a drug registration dossier Such expertise is available in the Australasian region and is increasing. Centers of excellence with the appropriate expertise to advise and assist should be encouraged to develop and grow in the region, 4. The use of the population approach by the pharmaceutical industry needs to be encouraged to provide valuable information not obtainable by other techniques. The acceptance of population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses by regulatory agencies also needs to be encouraged, and 5. Development of the population approach to pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics is needed from a public health perspective to ensure that all available information is collected and used to improve the way drugs are used. This important endeavor needs funding and support at the local and international levels.