Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

A clinical audit of the prescribing of celecoxib and rofecoxib in Australian rural general practice

Aims The new cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) selective inhibitors, celecoxib (Celebrex®) and rofecoxib (Vioxx®), have been widely prescribed since their launch. No reviews currently appear in the literature of prescribing patterns in Australia. This paper describes a self-audit of the clinical use of selective COX-2 inhibitor therapy undertaken with rural general practitioners (GPs) in Australia. Methods A structured audit form was developed and distributed to interested GPs. The form was self-administered and focused on issues about COX-2 inhibitors and the types of patients who were receiving them, e.g. indications, patient demographics, risk factors and drug interactions. Results A total of 627 patients were recruited (569 celecoxib and 58 rofecoxib). A range of doses was prescribed. Osteoarthritis was the most common indication (68.1%). Risk factors known for the nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified in 65.1% of patients, with the most common being advanced age, hypertension and previous peptic ulcer disease. Potential drug interactions were common. A variety of reasons for initiation of therapy was identified; these included perceived increased efficacy, safety and failure of other treatment. Conclusions These results show that COX-2 inhibitors are being prescribed for patients with multiple risk factors that may place the patient at increased risk of adverse drug reactions to a COX-2 inhibitor. The perception of improved safety and efficacy was common and is of concern. Limitations of the study include the reliance on self-reporting.

Risk factors for development of delirium among oncology patients

To determine the occurrence of delirium in oncology inpatients and to identify and evaluate admission characteristics associated with the development of delirium during inpatient admission, a prospective observational study was conducted of H 3 patients with a total of 145 admissions with histological diagnosis of cancer admitted to the oncology unit over a period of ten weeks. At the point of inpatient admission, all patients were assessed for the presence of potential risk factors for development of delirium. During the index admission patients were assessed daily for the presence of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method. Delirium was confirmed by clinician assessment. Delirium developed in 26 of 145 admissions (18%) and 32 episodes of delirium were recorded with 6 patients having 2 episodes of delirium during the index admission. Delirium occurred on average 3.3 days into the admission. The average duration of an episode of delirium was 2.1 day. Four patients with delirium (15%) died. All other cases of delirium were reversed. Factors significantly associated with development of delirium on multivariate analysis were: advanced age, cognitive impairment, low albumin level, bone metastases, and the presence of hematological malignancy. Hospital inpatient admission was significantly longer in delirium group (mean: 8.8 days vs 4.5 days in nondelirium group, P

Postmaterial values and age: The case of Australia

Inglehart's thesis of value change is one of the most widely discussed accounts of social and political change in advanced Western nations. This article offers a critique of Inglehart's thesis and a clarification of the Australian case. While critics of Inglehart have attacked the validity of his values measures, or sought to improve them, we use Inglehart's own values index to show that even if-as Inglehart claims-his measures are valid, the age/values predictions do not hold as the theory suggests in Australia. In a recent article, Inglehart and Abramson (1999, 673) cite Australia among a group of '28 high-income' countries that exhibit 'stronger relationships between values and age' than found in the United States. We dispute Inglehart and Abramson's findings in relation to Australia. We show that the relationship between age and values in Australia, like the United States, is very weak, highlight the problematic nature of assuming a linear relationship between age and values without evidence, and discover a new non-linear relationship between values and birth cohorts in Australia that has implications for the study of values research internationally.

Promising results of a cooperative group phase II trial of preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer (TROG 9801)

PURPOSE: This article reports the overall survival, failure-free survival, local failure, and late radiation toxicity of a phase II trial of preoperative radiotherapy with continuous infusion 5-fluorouracil for rectal cancer after a minimum 3.5 years of follow-up. METHODS: Eligible patients were those with newly diagnosed localized adenocarcinoma of the rectum, within 12 cm of the anal verge, staged T3-T4 and deemed suitable for curative resection. Radiotherapy (50.4 Gy in 28 fractions in five weeks and three days) was given with continuous infusion 5-fluorouracil throughout the course of radiotherapy. RESULTS: A total of 82 patients were accrued in 13 months. The median follow-up time was 4.1 (range, 2.3-4.5) years. There were 55 males (67 percent) and the median age was 59 (range, 27-87) years. Patients were staged pretreatment as T3 (89 percent) and resectable T4 (11 percent). Endorectal ultrasound was performed in 70 percent and magnetic resonance imaging in another 5 percent. The four-year overall and failure-free survival rates were 82 percent (95 percent Cl: 72-89) and 69 percent (95 percent Cl: 58-78), respectively. The cumulative incidence of local failure at four years was 3.9 percent (95 percent CI: 1.3-11). Risk of failures, local and distant, has not reached a plateau phase. CONCLUSION: This regimen can be delivered safely and without leading to a significant increase in late toxicity. It provides excellent local control and favorable overall survival. There is a need for longer follow-up than has commonly been used for the proper evaluation of failures after an effective regimen of preoperative chemoradiation.

Information giving and decision-making in patients with advanced cancer: A systematic review

Patients with advanced, non-curable cancer face difficult decisions on further treatment, where a small increase in survival time must be balanced against: the toxicity of the treatment. If patients want to be involved in these decisions, in keeping with current notions of autonomy and empowerment, they also require to be adequately informed both on the treatments proposed and on their own disease status and prognosis. A systematic review was performed on decision-making and information provision in patients with advanced cancer. Studies of interventions to improve information giving and encourage participation in decision-making were reviewed, including both randomised controlled trials and uncontrolled studies. Almost all patients expressed a desire for full information, but only about two-thirds wished to participate actively in decision-making. Higher educational level, younger age and female sex were predictive of a desire to participate in decision-making. Active decision-making was more common in patients with certain cancers (e.g. breast) than others (e.g. prostate). A number of simple interventions including question prompt sheets, audio-taping of consultations and patient decision aids have been shown to facilitate such involvement. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A phase I biological and pharmacologic study of the heparanase inhibitor PI-88 in patients with advanced solid tumors

Purpose: PI-88 is a mixture of highly sulfated oligosaccharides that inhibits heparanase, an extracellular matrix endoglycosidase, and the binding of angiogenic growth factors to heparan sulfate. This agent showed potent inhibition of placental blood vessel angiogenesis as well as growth inhibition in multiple xenograft models, thus forming the basis for this study. Experimental Design: This study evaluated the toxicity and pharmacokinetics of PI-88 (80-315 mg) when administered s.c. daily for 4 consecutive days bimonthly (part 1) or weekly (part 2). Results: Forty-two patients [median age, 53 years (range, 19-78 years); median performance status, 1] with a range of advanced solid tumors received a total of 232 courses. The maximum tolerated dose was 250 mg/d. Dose-limiting toxicity consisted of thrombocytopenia and pulmonary embolism. Other toxicity was generally mild and included prolongation of the activated partial thromboplastin time and injection site echymosis. The pharmacokinetics were linear with dose. Intrapatient variability was low and interpatient variability was moderate. Both AUC and C-max correlated with the percent increase in activated partial thromboplastin time, showing that this pharmacodynamic end point can be used as a surrogate for drug exposure, No association between PI-88 administration and vascular endothelial growth factor or basic fibroblast growth factor levels was observed. One patient with melanoma had a partial response, which was maintained for >50 months, and 9 patients had stable disease for >= 6 months. Conclusion: The recommended dose of PI-88 administered for 4 consecutive days bimonthly or weekly is 250 mg/d. PI-88 was generally well tolerated. Evidence of efficacy in melanoma supports further evaluation of PI-88 in phase II trials.

The use of transcriptional profiles to predict adult mosquito age under field conditions

Age is a critical determinant of an adult female mosquito's ability to transmit a range of human pathogens. Despite its central importance, relatively few methods exist with which to accurately determine chronological age of field-caught mosquitoes. This fact is a major constraint on our ability to fully understand the relative importance of vector longevity to disease transmission in different ecological contexts. It also limits our ability to evaluate novel disease control strategies that specifically target mosquito longevity. We report the development of a transcriptional profiling approach to determine age of adult female Aedes aegypti under field conditions. We demonstrate that this approach surpasses current cuticular hydrocarbon methods for both accuracy of predicted age as well as the upper limits at which age can be reliably predicted. The method is based on genes that display age-dependent expression in a range of dipteran insects and, as such, is likely to be broadly applicable to other disease vectors.

Modifying insect population age structure to control vector-borne disease

Age is a critical determinant of the ability of most arthropod vectors to transmit a range of human pathogens. This is due to the fact that most pathogens require a period of extrinsic incubation in the arthropod host before pathogen transmission can occur. This developmental period for the pathogen often comprises a significant proportion of the expected lifespan of the vector. As such, only a small proportion of the population that is oldest contributes to pathogen transmission. Given this, strategies that target vector age would be expected to obtain the most significant reductions in the capacity of a vector population to transmit disease. The recent identification of biological agents that shorten vector lifespan, such as Wolbachia, entomopathogenic fungi and densoviruses, offer new tools for the control of vector-borne diseases. Evaluation of the efficacy of these strategies under field conditions will be possible due to recent advances in insect age-grading techniques. Implementation of all of these strategies will require extensive field evaluation and consideration of the selective pressures that reductions in vector longevity may induce on both vector and pathogen.

Host age effect and expression of cytoplasmic incompatibility in field populations of Wolbachia-superinfected Aedes albopictus

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a known vector of dengue in South America and Southeast Asia. It is naturally superinfected with two strains of Wolbachia endosymbiont that are able to induce cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). In this paper, we report the strength of CI expression in crosses involving field-caught males. CI expression was found to be very strong in all crosses between field males and laboratory-reared uninfected or wAlbA infected young females. In addition, crossing experiments with laboratory colonies showed that aged super- infected males could express strong CI when mated with young uninfected or wAlbA infected females. These results provide additional evidence that the CI properties of Wolbachia infecting Aedes albopictus are well suited for applied strategies that seek to utilise Wolbachia for host population modification.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.