Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Population pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its active metabolite hydroxy-itraconazole in paediatric cystic fibrosis and bone marrow transplant patients

Objective: The objective of the study was to characterise the population pharmacokinetic properties of itraconazole and its active metabolite hydroxyitraconazole in a representative paediatric population of cystic fibrosis and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients and to identify patient characteristics influencing the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole. The ultimate goals were to determine the relative bioavailability between the two oral formulations (capsules vs oral solution) and to optimise dosing regimens in these patients. Methods: All paediatric patients with cystic fibrosis or patients undergoing BMT at The Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, who were prescribed oral itraconazole for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (cystic fibrosis patients) or for prophylaxis of any fungal infection (BMT patients) were eligible for the study. Blood samples were taken from the recruited patients as per an empirical sampling design either during hospitalisation or during outpatient clinic visits. ltraconazole and hydroxy-itraconazole plasma concentrations were determined by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography assay with fluorometric detection. A nonlinear mixed-effect modelling approach using the NONMEM software to simultaneously describe the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its metabolite. Results: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption described the itraconazole data, and the metabolism of the parent drug to hydroxy-itraconazole was described by a first-order rate constant. The metabolite data also showed one-compartment characteristics with linear elimination. For itraconazole the apparent clearance (CLitraconazole) was 35.5 L/hour, the apparent volume of distribution (V-d(itraconazole)) was 672L, the absorption rate constant for the capsule formulation was 0.0901 h(-1) and for the oral solution formulation was 0.96 h-1. The lag time was estimated to be 19.1 minutes and the relative bioavailability between capsules and oral solution (F-rel) was 0.55. For the metabolite, volume of distribution, V-m/(F (.) f(m)), and clearance, CL/(F (.) fm), were 10.6L and 5.28 L/h, respectively. The influence of total bodyweight was significant, added as a covariate on CLitraconazoie/F and V-d(itraconazole)/F (standardised to a 70kg person) using allometric three-quarter power scaling on CLitraconazole/F, which therefore reflected adult values. The unexplained between-subject variability (coefficient of variation %) was 68.7%, 75.8%, 73.4% and 61.1% for CLitraconazoie/F, Vd(itraconazole)/F, CLm/(F (.) fm) and F-rel, respectively. The correlation between random effects of CLitraconazole and Vd((itraconazole)) was 0.69. Conclusion: The developed population pharmacokinetic model adequately described the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its active metabolite, hydroxy-itraconazole, in paediatric patients with either cystic fibrosis or undergoing BMT. More appropriate dosing schedules have been developed for the oral solution and the capsules to secure a minimum therapeutic trough plasma concentration of 0.5 mg/L for these patients.

Paediatric population pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its active metabolite hydroxy-itraconazole in cystic fibrosis and bone marrow transplant patients

Objectives: The aim of the study was to characterise the population pharmacokinetics (popPK) properties of itraconazole (ITRA) and its active metabolite hydroxy-ITRA in a representative paediatric population of cystic fibrosis (CF) and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients. The goals were to determine the relative bioavailability between the two oral formulations, and to explore improved dosage regimens in these patients. Methods: All paediatric patients with CF taking oral ITRA for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis and patients undergoing BMT who were taking ITRA for prophylaxis of any fungal infection were eligible for the study. A minimum of two blood samples were drawn after the capsules and also after switching to oral solution, or vice versa. ITRA and hydroxy-ITRA plasma concentrations were measured by HPLC[1]. A nonlinear mixed-effect modelling approach (NONMEM 5.1.1) was used to describe the PK of ITRA and hydroxy-ITRA simultaneously. Simulations were used to assess dosing strategies in these patients. Results: Forty-nine patients (29CF, 20 BMT) were recruited to the study who provided 227 blood samples for the population analysis. A 1-compartment model with 1st order absorption and elimination best described ITRA kinetics, with 1st order conversion to hydroxy-ITRA. For ITRA, the apparent clearance (ClItra/F) and volume of distribution (Vitra/F) was 35.5L/h and 672L, respectively; the absorption rate constant for the capsule formulation was 0.0901 h-1 and for the oral solution formulation it was 0.959 h-1. The capsule comparative bioavailability (vs. solution) was 0.55. For hydroxy-ITRA, the apparent volume of distribution and clearance were 10.6 L and 5.28 L/h, respectively. Of several screened covariates only allometrically scaled total body weight significantly improved the fit to the data. No difference between the two populations was found. Conclusion: The developed popPK model adequately described the pharmacokinetics of ITRA and hydroxy-ITRA in paediatric patients with CF and patients undergoing BMT. High inter-patient variability confirmed previous data in CF[2], leukaemia and BMT[3] patients. From the population model, simulations showed the standard dose (5 mg/kg/day) needs to be doubled for the solution formulation and even 4 times more given of the capsules to achieve an adequate target therapeutic trough plasma concentration of 0.5 mg/L[4] in these patients.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Determinants of active leisure for women with young children - an "ethic of care" prevails

Women are significantly less likely than men to participate in physically active leisure. Women with children are less likely to participate in active leisure compared with women who do not have children. Social pressure to fulfil the role of being a good mother has been suggested in discussions regarding constraints to physical activity as has the use of leisure engagement as a means of challenging social expectations and structured gender relations. This study explored determinants of active leisure participation through in-depth interviews with 12 heterosexual mothers of young children who were purposively sampled with contrasting levels of partner support, physical activity, and socioeconomic status. The findings suggested that household norms relating to gender-based time negotiation and ideologies regarding an ethic of care were important determinants of active leisure among women with young children. A better understanding of these issues could be important in the development of strategies for promoting greater participation in physical activity among women.

Population pharmacokinetics and association between A77 1726 plasma concentrations and disease activity measures following administration of leflunomide to people with rheumatoid arthritis

Aims To investigate the concentration-effect relationship and pharmacokinetics of leflunomide in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods Data were collected from 23 RA patients on leflunomide therapy (as sole disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)) for at least 3 months. Main measures were A77 1726 (active metabolite of leflunomide) plasma concentrations and disease activity measures including pain, duration/intensity of morning stiffness, and SF-36 survey. A population estimate was sought for apparent clearance (CL/F ) and volume of distribution was fixed (0.155 l kg(-1)). Factors screened for influence on CL/F were weight, age, gender and estimated creatinine clearance. Results Significantly higher A77 1726 concentrations were seen in patients with less swollen joints and with higher SF-36 mental summary scores than in those with measures indicating more active disease (P < 0.05); concentration-effect trends were seen with five other disease activity measures. Statistical analysis of all disease activity measures showed that mean A77 1726 concentrations in groups with greater control of disease activity were significantly higher than those in whom the measures indicated less desirable control (P < 0.05). There was large between subject variability in the dose-concentration relationship. A steady-state infusion model best described the pharmacokinetic data. Inclusion of age as a covariate decreased interindividual variability (P < 0.01), but this would not be clinically important in terms of dosage changes. Final parameter estimate (% CV interindividual variability) for CL/F was 0.0184 l h(-1) (50%) (95% CI 0.0146, 0.0222). Residual (unexplained) variability (% CV) was 8.5%. Conclusions This study of leflunomide in patients using the drug clinically indicated a concentration-effect relationship. From our data, a plasma A77 1726 concentration of 50 mg l(-1) is more likely to indicate someone with less active disease than is a concentration around 30 mg l(-1). The marked variability in pharmacokinetics suggests a place for individualized dosing of leflunomide in RA therapy.

Physiological evidence for reproductive suppression in the introduced population of brown tree snakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam

Introduced species are an increasingly pervasive problem. While studies on the ecology and behavior of these pests are numerous, there is relatively little known of their physiology, specifically their reproductive and stress physiology. One of the best documented introduced pest species is the brown tree snake, Boiga irregularis, which was introduced onto the Pacific island of Guam sometime around World War II. The snake is responsible for severely reducing Guam's native vertebrates. We captured free-living individuals throughout the year and measured plasma levels of stress and sex hormones in an effort to determine when they were breeding. These data were compared to reproductive cycles from a captive population originally collected from Guam. Free-living individuals had chronically elevated plasma levels of the stress hormone corticosterone and basal levels of sex steroids and a remarkably low proportion were reproductively active. These data coincide with evidence that the wild population may be in decline. Captive snakes, had low plasma levels of corticosterone with males displaying a peak in plasma testosterone levels during breeding. Furthermore, we compared body condition between the free-living and captive snakes from Guam and free-living individuals captured from their native range in Australia. Male and female free-living snakes from Guam exhibited significantly reduced body condition compared to free-living individuals from Australia. We suggest that during the study period, free-living brown tree snakes on Guam were living under stressful conditions, possibly due to overcrowding and overexploitation. of food resources, resulting in decreased body condition and suppressed reproduction. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodegradation of the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin LR in natural water and biologically active slow sand filters

A bacterium (MJ-PV) previously demonstrated to degrade the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin LR, was investigated for bioremediation applications in natural water microcosms and biologically active slow sand filters. Enhanced degradation of microcystin LR was observed with inoculated (1 x 10(6) cell/mL) treatments of river water dosed with microcystin LR (> 80% degradation within 2 days) compared to uninoculated controls. Inoculation of MJ-PV at lower concentrations (1 x 10(2)-1 x 10(5)cells/mL) also demonstrated enhanced microcystin LR degradation over control treatments. Polymerase chain reactions (PCR) specifically targeting amplification of 16S rDNA of MJ-PV and the gene responsible for initial degradation of microcystin LR (mlrA) were successfully applied to monitor the presence of the bacterium in experimental trials. No amplified products indicative of an endemic MJ-PV population were observed in uninoculated treatments indicating other bacterial strains were active in degradation of microcystin LR, Pilot scale biologically active slow sand filters demonstrated degradation of microcystin LR irrespective of MJ-PV bacterial inoculation. PCR analysis detected the MJ-PV population at all locations within the sand filters where microcystin degradation was measured. Despite not observing enhanced degradation of microcystin LR in inoculated columns compared to uninoculated column, these studies demonstrate the effectiveness of a low-technology water treatment system like biologically active slow sand filters for removal of microcystins from reticulated water supplies. Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual or population approaches to the promotion of physical activity... is that the question?

A recent editorial raised several issues about the role of exercise physiologists in the fight against physical inactivity in Australia. This opinion piece argues that we must strive to work together in multidisciplinary groups to improve our understanding of the mechanisms which link PA and health and the ways to persuade people to become more active. Prescription of specific exercise programs supported by exercise physiologists is one strategy for helping to activate Australians, but it is unlikely that that this atone will have a significant impact on population health. If we are to activate the 10,000,000 Australians who are currently insufficiently active for health benefit, we will need the combined efforts of governments, NGOs, teachers, planners, marketing experts, veterinarians, and ALL our health professionals, to combine forces to activate Australia. (c) 2006 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Presentation and detection of invasive melanoma in a high-risk population

Background: Early detection of melanoma has been encouraged in Queensland for many years, yet little is known about the patterns of detection and the way in which they relate to tumor thickness. Objective: Our purpose was to describe current patterns of melanoma detection in Queensland. Methods: This was a population-based study, comprising 3772 Queensland residents diagnosed with a histologically confirmed melanoma between 2000 and 2003. Results: Almost half (44.0%) of the melanomas were detected by the patients themselves, with physicians detecting one fourth (25.3%) and partners one fifth (18.6%). Melanomas detected by doctors were more likely to be thin (\0.75 mm) than those detected by the patient or other layperson. Melanomas detected during a deliberate skin examination were thinner than those detected incidentally. Limitations: Although a participation rate of 78% was achieved, as in any survey, nonresponse bias cannot be completely excluded, and the ability of the results to be generalized to other geographical areas is unknown. Conclusion: There are clear differences in the depth distribution of melanoma in terms of method of detection and who detects the lesions that are consistent with, but do not automatically lead to, the conclusion that promoting active methods of detection may be beneficial. ( J Am Acad Dermatol 2006;54:783-92.)

A D-optimal designed population pharmacokinetic study of itraconazole capsules and solution in adults with cystic fibrosis

Background: Oral itraconazole (ITRA) is used for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) because of its antifungal activity against Aspergillus species. ITRA has an active hydroxy-metabolite (OH-ITRA) which has similar antifungal activity. ITRA is a highly lipophilic drug which is available in two different oral formulations, a capsule and an oral solution. It is reported that the oral solution has a 60% higher relative bioavailability. The influence of altered gastric physiology associated with CF on the pharmacokinetics (PK) of ITRA and its metabolite has not been previously evaluated. Objectives: 1) To estimate the population (pop) PK parameters for ITRA and its active metabolite OH-ITRA including relative bioavailability of the parent after administration of the parent by both capsule and solution and 2) to assess the performance of the optimal design. Methods: The study was a cross-over design in which 30 patients received the capsule on the first occasion and 3 days later the solution formulation. The design was constrained to have a maximum of 4 blood samples per occasion for estimation of the popPK of both ITRA and OH-ITRA. The sampling times for the population model were optimized previously using POPT v.2.0.[1] POPT is a series of applications that run under MATLAB and provide an evaluation of the information matrix for a nonlinear mixed effects model given a particular design. In addition it can be used to optimize the design based on evaluation of the determinant of the information matrix. The model details for the design were based on prior information obtained from the literature, which suggested that ITRA may have either linear or non-linear elimination. The optimal sampling times were evaluated to provide information for both competing models for the parent and metabolite and for both capsule and solution simultaneously. Blood samples were assayed by validated HPLC.[2] PopPK modelling was performed using FOCE with interaction under NONMEM, version 5 (level 1.1; GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD, USA). The PK of ITRA and OH‑ITRA was modelled simultaneously using ADVAN 5. Subsequently three methods were assessed for modelling concentrations less than the LOD (limit of detection). These methods (corresponding to methods 5, 6 & 4 from Beal[3], respectively) were (a) where all values less than LOD were assigned to half of LOD, (b) where the closest missing value that is less than LOD was assigned to half the LOD and all previous (if during absorption) or subsequent (if during elimination) missing samples were deleted, and (c) where the contribution of the expectation of each missing concentration to the likelihood is estimated. The LOD was 0.04 mg/L. The final model evaluation was performed via bootstrap with re-sampling and a visual predictive check. The optimal design and the sampling windows of the study were evaluated for execution errors and for agreement between the observed and predicted standard errors. Dosing regimens were simulated for the capsules and the oral solution to assess their ability to achieve ITRA target trough concentration (Cmin,ss of 0.5-2 mg/L) or a combined Cmin,ss for ITRA and OH-ITRA above 1.5mg/L. Results and Discussion: A total of 241 blood samples were collected and analysed, 94% of them were taken within the defined optimal sampling windows, of which 31% where taken within 5 min of the exact optimal times. Forty six per cent of the ITRA values and 28% of the OH-ITRA values were below LOD. The entire profile after administration of the capsule for five patients was below LOD and therefore the data from this occasion was omitted from estimation. A 2-compartment model with 1st order absorption and elimination best described ITRA PK, with 1st order metabolism of the parent to OH-ITRA. For ITRA the clearance (ClItra/F) was 31.5 L/h; apparent volumes of central and peripheral compartments were 56.7 L and 2090 L, respectively. Absorption rate constants for capsule (kacap) and solution (kasol) were 0.0315 h-1 and 0.125 h-1, respectively. Comparative bioavailability of the capsule was 0.82. There was no evidence of nonlinearity in the popPK of ITRA. No screened covariate significantly improved the fit to the data. The results of the parameter estimates from the final model were comparable between the different methods for accounting for missing data, (M4,5,6)[3] and provided similar parameter estimates. The prospective application of an optimal design was found to be successful. Due to the sampling windows, most of the samples could be collected within the daily hospital routine, but still at times that were near optimal for estimating the popPK parameters. The final model was one of the potential competing models considered in the original design. The asymptotic standard errors provided by NONMEM for the final model and empirical values from bootstrap were similar in magnitude to those predicted from the Fisher Information matrix associated with the D-optimal design. Simulations from the final model showed that the current dosing regimen of 200 mg twice daily (bd) would provide a target Cmin,ss (0.5-2 mg/L) for only 35% of patients when administered as the solution and 31% when administered as capsules. The optimal dosing schedule was 500mg bd for both formulations. The target success for this dosing regimen was 87% for the solution with an NNT=4 compared to capsules. This means, for every 4 patients treated with the solution one additional patient will achieve a target success compared to capsule but at an additional cost of AUD $220 per day. The therapeutic target however is still doubtful and potential risks of these dosing schedules need to be assessed on an individual basis. Conclusion: A model was developed which described the popPK of ITRA and its main active metabolite OH-ITRA in adult CF after administration of both capsule and solution. The relative bioavailability of ITRA from the capsule was 82% that of the solution, but considerably more variable. To incorporate missing data, using the simple Beal method 5 (using half LOD for all samples below LOD) provided comparable results to the more complex but theoretically better Beal method 4 (integration method). The optimal sparse design performed well for estimation of model parameters and provided a good fit to the data.