Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Nephron number, hypertension, renal disease, and renal failure

Essential hypertension is one of the most common diseases in the Western world, affecting about 26.4% of the adult population, and it is increasing (1). Its causes are heterogeneous and include genetic and environmental factors (2), but several observations point to an important role of the kidney in its genesis (3). In addition to variations in tubular transport mechanisms that could, for example, affect salt handling, structural characteristics of the kidney might also contribute to hypertension. The burden of chronic kidney disease is also increasing worldwide, due to population growth, increasing longevity, and changing risk factors. Although single-cause models of disease are still widely promoted, multideterminant or multihit models that can accommodate multiple risk factors in an individual or in a population are probably more applicable (4,5). In such a framework, nephron endowment is one potential determinant of disease susceptibility. Some time ago, Brenner and colleagues (6,7) proposed that lower nephron numbers predispose both to essential hypertension and to renal disease. They also proposed that hypertension and progressive renal insufficiency might be initiated and accelerated by glomerular hypertrophy and intraglomerular hypertension that develops as nephron number is reduced (8). In this review, we summarize data from recent studies that shed more light on these hypotheses. The data supply a new twist to possible mechanisms of the Barker hypothesis, which proposes that intrauterine growth retardation predisposes to chronic disease in later life (9). The review describes how nephron number is estimated and its range and some determinants and morphologic correlates. It then considers possible causes of low nephron numbers. Finally, associations of hypertension and renal disease with reduced nephron numbers are considered, and some potential clinical implications are discussed.

Substrate-inhibited kinetics with catalyst deactivation in an isothermal CSTR. II. Multiple pseudosteady states and reactor failure

Analytical expressions are derived for the time and magnitude of failure of an isothermal CSTR with substrate-inhibited kinetics, caused by slow catalyst deactivation under three types of parallel and series mechanisms. Reactors operating at high space velocity are found to be most susceptible to early failure and poisoning by product is more dangerous than by reactant. The magnitude of the jump across steady states depends solely on the Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic parameters and a detailed analysis of reactor behavior during the jump itself is given.

Activation of beta(2)-adrenergic receptors hastens relaxation and mediates phosphorylation of phospholamban, troponin I, and C-protein in ventricular myocardium from patients with terminal heart failure

Background-Catecholamines hasten cardiac relaxation through beta-adrenergic receptors, presumably by phosphorylation of several proteins, but it is unknown which receptor subtypes are involved in human ventricle. We assessed the role of beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors in phosphorylating proteins implicated in ventricular relaxation. Methods and Results-Right ventricular trabeculae, obtained from freshly explanted hearts of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (n=5) or ischemic cardiomyopathy (n=5), were paced at 60 bpm. After measurement of the contractile and relaxant effects of epinephrine (10 mu mol/L) or zinterol (10 mu mol/L), mediated through beta(2)-adrenergic receptors, and of norepinephrine (10 mu mol/L), mediated through beta(1)-adrenergic receptors, tissues were freeze clamped. We assessed phosphorylation of phospholamban, troponin I, and C-protein, as well as specific phosphorylation of phospholamban at serine 16 and threonine 17, Data did not differ between the 2 disease groups and were therefore pooled. Epinephrine, zinterol, and norepinephrine increased contractile force to approximately the same extent, hastened the onset of relaxation by 15+/-3%, 5+/-2%, and 20+/-3%, respectively, and reduced the time to half-relaxation by 26+/-3%, 21+/-3%, and 37+/-3%. These effects of epinephrine, zinterol, and norepinephrine were associated with phosphorylation (pmol phosphate/mg protein) of phospholamban 14+/-3, 12+/-4, and 12+/-3, troponin I 40+/-7, 33+/-7, and 31+/-6; and C-protein 7.2+/-1.9, 9.3 +/- 1.4, and 7.5 +/- 2.0. Phosphorylation of phospholamban occurred at both Ser16 and Thr17 residues through both beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors. Conclusions-Norepinephrine and epinephrine hasten human ventricular relaxation and promote phosphorylation of implicated proteins through both beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors, thereby potentially improving diastolic function.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Electrical and chemical diagnostics of transformers insulation .B. Accelerated aged insulation samples

This paper describes the analysis of accelerated aged insulation samples to investigate the degradation processes observed in the insulation from aged transformers. Short term accelerated ageing experiments were performed on paper wrapped insulated conductors and on pressboard samples. The condition of aged insulation samples was investigated by two relatively new diagnostic techniques: (a) measurements of interfacial polarization spectra by a DC method (b) measurements of molecular weight and its distribution by gel permeation chromatography. Several other electrical properties of the paper/pressboard samples were also studied. Possible correlations have been investigated among the different measured properties. The GPC results have been used to predict how molecular weights change with temperature and time.

Etiology of ovarian failure in blepharophimosis ptosis epicanthus inversus syndrome: FOXL2 is a conserved, early-acting gene in vertebrate ovarian development

Blepharophimosis ptosis epicanthus inversus syndrome (BPES) is a human disorder caused by mutations in the forkhead transcription factor gene FOXL2 and is characterized by facial dysmorphology combined in some cases with ovarian failure. To better understand the role of FOXL2 in the etiology of ovarian failure in BPES, we examined its expression in embryonic ovaries of mice, chickens, and red-eared slider turtles, representatives of three phylogenetically distant vertebrate groups that have different mechanisms of sex determination. Expression of Foxl2 was detected in early ovaries of all three species around the time of sex determination and was associated with both somatic and germ cell populations in mice. Expression was sexually dimorphic in all cases. Sequence analysis of turtle and chicken FoxL2 orthologues indicated an unusually high degree of structural conservation during evolution. FoxL2 was found to be autosomal in chickens, and therefore unlikely to represent the dominant ovarian-determining gene that has been postulated to exist as a possible explanation for female heterogamety in birds. Our observations suggest that BPES may result from early abnormalities in regulating the development of the fetal ovary, rather than premature degeneration of the postnatal or adult ovary. Further, our results suggest that FOXL2 is a highly conserved early regulator of vertebrate ovarian development.

Effects of chilling temperatures on ethylene binding by banana fruit

Banana fruit are highly susceptible to chilling injury during low temperature storage. Experiments were conducted to compare ethylene binding during storage at chilling (3 and 8 degreesC) versus optimum (13 degreesC) temperatures. The skins of fruit stored at 3 and 8 degreesC gradually darkened as storage duration increased. This chilling effect was reflected in increasing membrane permeability as shown by increased relative electrolyte leakage from skin tissue. In contrast, banana fruit stored for 8 days at 13 degreesC showed no chilling injury symptoms. Exposure of banana fruit to the ethylene binding inhibitor 1-methylcyclopropene (1 mul l(-1) 1-MCP) prevented ripening. However, this treatment also enhanced the chilling injury accelerated the occurrence of chilling injury-associated increased membrane permeability. C-14-ethylene release assay showed that ethylene binding by banana fruit stored at low temperature decreased with reduced storage temperature and/or prolonged storage time. Fruit exposed to 1-MCP for 12 h and then stored at 3 or 8 degreesC exhibited lower ethylene binding than those stored at 13 degreesC. Thus, chilling injury of banana fruit stored at low temperature is associated with a decrease in ethylene binding. The ability of tissue to respond to ethylene is evidently reduced, thereby resulting in failure to ripen.