Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK

Objective: To evaluate the cost of atrial fibrillation (AF) to health and social services in the UK in 1995 and, based on epidemiological trends, to project this estimate to 2000. Design, setting, and main outcome measures: Contemporary estimates of health care activity related to AF were applied to the whole population of the UK on an age and sex specific basis for the year 1995. The activities considered ( and costs calculated) were hospital admissions, outpatient consultations, general practice consultations, and drug treatment ( including the cost of monitoring anticoagulant treatment). By adjusting for the progressive aging of the British population and related increases in hospital admissions, the cost of AF was also projected to the year 2000. Results: There were 534 000 people with AF in the UK during 1995. The direct'' cost of health care for these patients was pound 244 million (similar toE350 million) or 0.62% of total National Health Service ( NHS) expenditure. Hospitalisations and drug prescriptions accounted for 50% and 20% of this expenditure, respectively. Long term nursing home care after hospital admission cost an additional pound46.4 million (similar toE66 million). The direct cost of AF rose to pound459 million (similar toE655 million) in 2000, equivalent to 0.97% of total NHS expenditure based on 1995 figures. Nursing home costs rose to pound111 million (similar toE160 million). Conclusions: AF is an extremely costly public health problem.

Is pulse palpation helpful in detecting atrial fibrillation? A systematic review

Background Atrial fibrillation in the elderly is common and potentially life threatening. The classical sign of atrial fibrillation is an irregularly irregular pulse. Objective The objective of this research was to determine the accuracy of pulse palpation to detect atrial fibrillation. Methods We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the reference lists of review articles for studies that compared pulse palpation with the electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Two reviewers independently assessed the search results to determine the eligibility of studies, extracted data, and assessed the quality of the studies. Results We identified 3 studies (2385 patients) that compared pulse palpation with ECG. The estimated sensitivity of pulse palpation ranged from 91% to 100%, while specificity ranged from 70% to 77%. Pooled sensitivity was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 84%-97%) and pooled specificity was 72% (95% CI 69%-75%). The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 3.39, while the pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.10. Conclusions Pulse palpation has a high sensitivity but relatively low specificity for atrial fibrillation. It is therefore useful for ruling out atrial fibrillation. It may also be a useful screen to apply opportunistically for previously undetected atrial fibrillation. Assuming a prevalence of 3% for undetected atrial fibrillation in patients older than 65 years, and given the test's sensitivity and specificity, opportunistic pulse palpation in this age group would detect an irregular pulse in 30% of screened patients, requiring further testing with ECG. Among screened patients, 0.2% would have atrial fibrillation undetected with pulse palpation.

Functional and prognostic implications of left ventricular contractile reserve in patients with asymptomatic severe mitral regurgitation

Objective: To evaluate contractile reserve (CR) determined by exercise echocardiography in predicting clinical outcome and left ventricular (LV) function in asymptomatic severe mitral regurgitation (MR). Design: Cohort study. Setting: Regional cardiac centre. Patients and outcome measures: LV volumes and ejection fraction (EF) were measured at rest and after stress in 71 patients with isolated MR. During follow up (mean (SD) 3 (1) years), EF and functional capacity were serially assessed and cardiac events ( cardiac death, heart failure, and new atrial fibrillation) were documented. Results: CR was present in 45 patients (CR+) and absent in 26 patients (CR-). Age, resting LV dimensions, EF, and MR severity were similar in both groups. Mitral surgery was performed in 19 of 45 (42%) CR+ patients and 22 of 26 (85%) CR2 patients. In patients undergoing surgery, CR was an independent predictor of follow up EF (p = 0.006) and postoperative LV dysfunction (EF < 50%) persisted in five patients, all in the CR2 group. Event-free survival was lower in surgically treated patients without CR (p = 0.03). In medically treated patients, follow up EF was preserved in those with intact CR but progressively deteriorated in patients without CR, in whom functional capacity also deteriorated. Conclusions: Evaluation of CR by exercise echocardiography may be useful for risk stratification and may help to optimise the timing of surgery in asymptomatic severe MR.

The effect of admission physiological variables on 30 day outcome after stroke

Introduction. Potentially modifiable physiological variables may influence stroke prognosis but their independence from modifiable factors remains unclear. Methods. Admission physiological measures (blood pressure, heart rate, temperature and blood glucose) and other unmodifiable factors were recorded from patients presenting within 48 hours of stroke. These variables were compared with the outcomes of death and death or dependency at 30 days in multivariate statistical models. Results. In the 186 patients included in the study, age, atrial fibrillation and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Score were identified as unmodifiable factors independently associated with death and death or dependency. After adjusting for these factors, none of the physiological variables were independently associated with death, while only diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >= 90 mmHg was associated with death or dependency at 30 days (p = 0.02). Conclusions. Except for elevated DBP, we found no independent associations between admission physiology and outcome at 30 days in an unselected stroke cohort. Future studies should look for associations in subgroups, or by analysing serial changes in physiology during the early post-stroke period.

Effects of care pathways on stroke care practices at regional hospitals

Background: Our previous work identified deficiencies in stroke care practices at regional hospitals in comparison to standards suggested by published stroke care guidelines. These deficiencies might be improved by the implementation of clinical pathways. The aim of this study was to assess changes in acute stroke care practices following the implementation of stroke care pathways at four regional Queensland hospitals. Methods: The medical records of two cohorts of 120 patients with a discharge diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack were retrospectively audited before and after implementation of stroke care pathways to identify differences in the use of acute interventions, investigations and secondary prevention strategies. Results: Following pathway implementation there were clinically important, but not statistically significant, increases in the rates of swallow assessment, allied health assessment (significant for occupational therapy, P = 0.04) and use of deep vein thrombosis prevention strategies (also significant, P = 0.006). Fewer patients were discharged on no anti-thrombotic therapy (statistically significant in the subgroup of patients with atrial fibrillation, P = 0.02). Only 37% of the patients audited were actually enrolled on the pathway. Among this subgroup there were significant increases in the rates of swallow assessment (first 24 h, P = 0.01; any time during admission, P = 0.0001), allied health assessments (all P < 0.05), estimation of blood glucose level (P = 0.0015) and the use of deep vein thrombosis prevention strategies (P = 0.0003). Conclusion: Stroke care pathways appear to improve the process of care. Whether this influences outcomes such as mortality, functional and neurological recovery, the incidence of complications, length of stay or the cost of care was beyond the scope of this study and will require further examination.

Use of real-time three-dimensional echocardiography to measure left atrial volume: Comparison with other echocardiographic techniques

Objectives: Left atrial (LA) volume (LAV) is a prognostically important biomarker for diastolic dysfunction, but its reproducibility on repeated testing is not well defined. LA assessment with 3-dimensional. (3D) echocardiography (3DE) has been validated against magnetic resonance imaging, and we sought to assess whether this was superior to existing measurements for sequential echocardiographic follow-up. Methods: Patients (n = 100; 81 men; age 56 +/- 14 years) presenting for LA evaluation were studied with M-mode (MM) echocardiography, 2-dimensional (2D) echocardiography, and 3DE. Test-retest variation was performed by a complete restudy by a separate sonographer within 1 hour without alteration of hemodynamics or therapy. In all, 20 patients were studied for interobserver and intraobserver variation. LAVs were calculated by using M-mode diameter and planimetered atrial area in the apical. 4-chamber view to calculate an assumed sphere, as were prolate ellipsoid, Simpson's biplane, and biplane area-length methods. All were compared with 3DE. Results: The average LAV was 72 +/- 27 mL by 3DE. There was significant underestimation of LAV by M-mode (35 +/- 20 mL, r = 0.66, P < .01). The 3DE and various 2D echocardiographic techniques were well correlated: LA planimetry (85 +/- 38 mL, r = 0.77, P < .01), prolate ellipsoid (73 +/- 36 mL, r = 0.73, P = .04), area-length (64 +/- 30 mL, r = 0.74, P < .01), and Simpson's biplane (69 +/- 31 mL, r = 0.78, P = .06). Test-retest variation for 3DE was most favorable (r = 0.98, P < .01), with the prolate ellipsoid method showing most variation. Interobserver agreement between measurements was best for 3DE (r = 0.99, P < .01), with M-mode the worst (r = 0.89, P < .01). Intraobserver results were similar to interobserver, the best correlation for 3DE (r = 0.99, P < .01), with LA planimetry the worst (r = 0.91, P < .01). Conclusions. The 2D measurements correlate closely with 3DE. Follow-up assessment in daily practice appears feasible and reliable with both 2D and 3D approaches.

Characteristics of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in the community: an echocardiographic survey

Objective: To determine the prevalence and predictors of left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction in older adults. Design, setting and participants: A cross-sectional survey of 1275 randomly selected residents of Canberra, aged 60 to 86 years (mean age 69.4; 50% men), conducted between February 2002 and June 2003. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of LV diastolic dysfunction as characterised by comprehensive Doppler echocardiography. Results: The prevalence of any diastolic dysfunction was 34.7% (95% CI 32.1% to 37.4%) and that of moderate to severe diastolic dysfunction was 7.3% (95% CI 5.9% to 8.9%). Of subjects with moderate to severe diastolic dysfunction, 77.4% had an LV ejection fraction (EF) > 50% and 76.3% were in a preclinical stage of disease. Predictors of diastolic dysfunction were higher age (p < 0.0001), reduced EF (p < 0.0001), obesity (p < 0.0001) and a history of hypertension (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p = 0.02) and myocardial infarction (p = 0.003). Moderate to severe diastolic dysfunction with normal EF, although predominantly preclinical, was independently associated with increased LV mass (p < 0.0001), left atrial volume (p < 0.0001), and circulating amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide concentrations (p < 0.0001), and with decreased quality of life (p < 0.005). Conclusion: Diastolic dysfunction is common in the community and often unaccompanied by overt congestive heart failure. Despite the lack of symptoms, advanced diastolic dysfunction with normal EF is associated with reduced quality of life and structural abnormalities that reflect increased cardiovascular risk.