Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Promoter-, cell-, and ligand-specific transactivation responses of the VDRB1 isoform

The vitamin D receptor (VDR) mediates the effects of 1,25(OH)(2)D-3, the active form of vitamin D. The human VDRB1 isoform differs from the originally described VDR by an N-terminal extension of 50 amino acids. Here we investigate cell-, promoter-, and ligand-specific transactivation by the VDRB1 isoform. Transactivation by these isoforms of the cytochrome P450 CYP24 promoter was compared in kidney (HEK293 and COS1), tumor-derived colon (Caco-2, LS174T, and HCT15), and mammary (HS578T and MCF7) cell lines. VDRB1 transactivation in response to 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 was greater in Cost and HCT15 cells (145%), lower in HEK293 and Caco-2 cells (70-85%) and similar in other cell lines tested. By contrast, on the cytochrome P450 CYP3A4 promoter, 1,25(OH)(2)D-3-induced VDRB1 transactivation was significantly lower than VDRA in Caco-2 (68%), but comparable to VDRA in HEK293 and COS1 cells. Ligand-dependence of VDRB1 differential transactivation was investigated using the secondary bile acid lithocholic acid (LCA). On the CYP24 promoter LCA-induced transactivation was similar for both isoforms in COS1, whereas in Caco-2 and HEK293 cells VDRB1 was less active. On the CYP3A4 promoter, LCA activation of VDRB1 was comparable to VDRA in all the cell lines tested. Mutational analysis indicated that both the 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 and LCA-regulated activities of both VDR isoforms required a functional ligand-dependent activation function (AF-2) domain. In gel shift assays VDR:DNA complex formation was stronger in the presence of 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 than with LCA. These results indicate that regulation of VDRB1 transactivation activity is dependent on cellular context, promoter, and the nature of the ligand. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.