Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Marriage breakdown in Australia - The social correlates of separation and divorce

Marriage breakdown through separation and divorce is a pervasive feature of Australian society. But little research investigates the social factors associated with marital breakdown in Australia. This study builds on and extends Australian research by using survival analysis models to examine patterns of association among temporal, life-course, attitudinal and economic factors associated with marital breakdown. Using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we find marital breakdown in Australia is socially patterned in similar ways to other Western countries. But our findings point to several directions for future research into marriage breakdown in Australia, and we identify certain unique features of Australian marriage breakdown that warrant a more detailed investigation, such as the relationship between ethnic origin and the risk of marital breakdown.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

A simple lifestyle score predicts survival in healthy elderly men

Background. Although improvements in life expectancy have been attributed in part to the adoption or a more prudent lifestyle, few studies have examined the association of lifestyle with survival, using several lifestyle factors simultaneously, in a healthy elderly population. Methods. We investigated the association of health related behaviors with mortality in 7989 men aged 65 to 83 years participating in a population-based trial in Perth, Western Australia, by calculating a lifestyle score as a simple tally of flow many or eight prudent behaviors each individual followed. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. Out of a possible score of 8.46% of men had a score of less than 5. Within 5 years, a total of 703 men (9%) had died from any cause. The hazard ratio in men with a low lifestyle score was 1.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.5] compared with men with a score of 5 or more. Conclusions. Lifestyle remains an important predictor of mortality even in old age. Survival in older men without a history of cardiovascular disease can potentially be enhanced by promoting a healthy lifestyle. © 2004 Elsevier Inc, All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of intraventricular dyssynchrony according to clinical stage of left ventricular impairment

Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Lifestyle still predicts mortality in older men with established vascular disease

Background. It is uncertain whether accepted associations between health behaviors and mortality are pertinent to elderly people. No previous studies have examined the patterns of lifestyle in elderly men with and without clinically evident vascular disease by using a lifestyle score to predict survival. Methods. We measured prevalence of a healthy lifestyle (four or more healthy behaviors out of eight) and examined survival in 11,745 men aged 65-83 years participating in a randomized population-based trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Perth, Western Australia. After stratifying participants into five groups according to history and symptoms of vascular disease, we compared survival of men in each subgroup with that of 'healthy' men with no history or symptoms of vascular disease. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. After adjusting for age and place of birth, having an unhealthy lifestyle was associated with an increase of 20% in the likelihood of death from any cause within 5 years (95% CI: 10-30%). This pattern was consistently evident across subgroups defined by history of vascular disease, but was less evident for deaths from vascular disease. Conclusions. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle through to old age, regardless of history of vascular disease. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel markers for poor prognosis in head and neck cancer

Head and neck cancer (HNSCC) is one of the most distressing human cancers, causing pain and affecting the basic survival functions of breathing and swallowing. Mortality rates have not changed despite recent advances in radiotherapy and surgical treatment. We have compared the expression of over 13,000 unique genes in 7 cases of matched HNSCC and normal oral mucosa. Of the 1,260 genes that showed statistically significant differences in expression between normal and tumor tissue at the mRNA level, the three top ranking of the top 5% were selected for further analysis by immunohistochemistry on paraffin sections,. along with the tumor suppressor genes p16 and p53, in a total of 62 patients including 55 for whom >4-year clinical data was available. Using univariate and multivariate survival analysis, we identified SPARC/osteonectin as a powerful independent prognostic marker for short disease-free interval (DFI) (p < 0.002) and poor overall survival (OS) (p = 0.018) of HNSCC patients. In combination with other ECM proteins found in our analysis, PAI-1 and uPA, the association with DFI and OS became even more significant (p < 0.001). Our study represents the first instance of SPARC as an independent prognostic marker in HNSCC.

Alpha B-crystallin, a new independent marker for poor prognosis in head and neck cancer

Objectives. Gene expression profiling has provided many insights into tumor progression but translation to clinical practice has been limited. We have previously identified a list of potential markers by the differences of expression profiling of seven matched head and neck cancer (HNSCC) tumors with autologous normal oral mucosa (NOM). Alpha B-crystallin (CRYAB) was in the top 5% of genes identified with statistically significant differences in expression between tumor and NOM at the mRNA level. The objective was to confirm this in routine paraffin sections at the protein level. Study Design: The level of alpha B-crystallin was determined in tumors of 62 HNSCC patients whose prognosis was known for 5 years. Methods. Immunohistochemical detection of alpha B-crystallin expression was performed on HNSCC paraffin sections. Results. Univariate survival analysis identified lack of alpha B-crystallin staining as an independent prognostic marker for disease-free interval (P < 0.001) and overall survival (P < 0.002) of HNSCC patients over the 5-year observation period. Notably, all 13 patients (100%), including 5 patients with nodal disease whose tumors lacked alpha B-crystallin had no recurrences (P < 0.001). Nineteen of 27 node-negative patients stained positive for alpha B-crystallin and seven of the 19 (36.8%) had recurrences. Conclusion: Presence or absence of expression of alpha B-crystallin was a powerful marker for prognosis in this series of patients.

Family structure and age at menarche: A children-of-twins approach

Girls who grow up in households with an unrelated adult male reach menarche earlier than peers, a finding hypothesized to be an evolutionary strategy for families under stress. The authors tested the alternative hypothesis that nonrandom selection into stepfathering due to shared environmental and/or genetic predispositions creates a spurious relation between stepfathering and early menarche. Using the unique controls for genetic and shared environmental experiences offered by the children-of-twins design, the authors found that cousins discordant for stepfathering did not differ in age of menarche. Moreover, controlling for mother's age of menarche eliminated differences in menarcheal age associated with stepfathering in unrelated girls. These findings strongly suggest selection, and not causation, accounts for the relationship between stepfathering and early menarche.

Relative predictive value of intraventricular dysynchrony in determining long-term outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary disease

Improvement of intra-ventricular dysynchrony (IVD) in pts undergoing bi-ventricular pacing is associated with clinical improvementbut little isknownabout the relationship between IVD and prognosis.We sought whether IVD influences long-term outcome in pts with known or suspected coronary disease (CAD). Tissue Doppler imaging was performed in 184 pts (aged 61±10 years, 67% male) prior to dobutamine echo. From velocity curves the interval between QRS onset and max systolic velocity (Ts) was measured in basal septal, lateral, inferior and anterior segments. The maximal difference in Ts between segments (TsMax) was used as a measure of IVD. The standard deviation (TsSD) between all segments and the septal-lateral difference (TsSL) were also calculated. Pts were followed up for a median interval of 5 years and a Cox model used for survival analysis. The medianwall motion index (WMI) was 1.3 (IQR 1.0–1.8) at rest and 1.4 (IQR 1.3–1.9) at stress. The table shows IVD parameters. Forty-one deaths occurred during follow-up. Pts who died during follow-up, compared to survivors, showed greater IVD. WMI at rest (p = 0.03) and peak stress (p = 0.02), TsSD (p = 0.06), TsSL (p = 0.02) and TsMax (p = 0.05) but not QRS width were univariate predictors of mortality. TsSL was the only independent predictor of death (p = 0.01). Therefore, IVD is common in pts with known or suspected CAD. Pts with more IVD have reduced long-term survival, independent of WMI.

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Hypoxic/ischemic models in newborn piglet: Comparison of constant FiO(2) versus variable FiO(2) delivery

A comparison of a constant (continuous delivery of 4% FiO(2)) and a variable (initial 5% FiO(2) with adjustments to induce low amplitude EEG (LAEEG) and hypotension) hypoxic/ischemic insult was performed to determine which insult was more effective in producing a consistent degree of survivable neuropathological damage in a newborn piglet model of perinatal asphyxia. We also examined which physiological responses contributed to this outcome. Thirty-nine 1-day-old piglets were subjected to either a constant hypoxic/ischemic insult of 30- to 37-min duration or a variable hypoxic/ischemic insult of 30-min low peak amplitude EEG (LAEEG < 5 mu V) including 10 min of low mean arterial blood pressure (MABP < 70% of baseline). Control animals (n = 6) received 21% FiO(2) for the duration of the experiment. At 72 h, the piglets were euthanased, their brains removed and fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde and assessed for hypoxic/ischemic injury by histological analysis. Based on neuropathology scores, piglets were grouped as undamaged or damaged; piglets that did not survive to 72 h were grouped separately as dead. The variable insult resulted in a greater number of piglets with neuropathological damage (undamaged = 12.5%, damaged = 68.75%, dead = 18.75%) while the constant insult resulted in a large proportion of undamaged piglets (undamaged = 50%, damaged = 22.2%, dead = 27.8%). A hypoxic insult varied to maintain peak amplitude EEG < 5 mu V results in a greater number of survivors with a consistent degree of neuropathological damage than a constant hypoxic insult. Physiological variables MABP, LAEEG, pH and arterial base excess were found to be significantly associated with neuropathological outcome. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.