Popper and his Commentators on the Discovery of Neptune: a close shave for the Law of Gravitation?

Knowledge of residual perturbations in the orbit of Uranus in the early 1840s did not lead to the refutation of Newton's law of gravitation but instead to the discovery of Neptune in 1846. Karl Popper asserts that this case is atypical of science and that the law of gravitation was at least prima facie falsified by these perturbations. I argue that these assertions are the product of a false, a priori methodological position I call, 'Weak Popperian Falsificationism' (WPF). Further, on the evidence the law was not prima facie false and was not generally considered so by astronomers at the time. Many of Popper's commentators (Kuhn, Lakatos, Feyerabend and others) presuppose WPF and their views on this case and its implications for scientific rationality and method suffer from this same defect.

Embedded Voxel Colouring

The reconstruction of a complex scene from multiple images is a fundamental problem in the field of computer vision. Volumetric methods have proven to be a strong alternative to traditional correspondence-based methods due to their flexible visibility models. In this paper we analyse existing methods for volumetric reconstruction and identify three key properties of voxel colouring algorithms: a water-tight surface model, a monotonic carving order, and causality. We present a new Voxel Colouring algorithm which embeds all reconstructions of a scene into a single output. While modelling exact visibility for arbitrary camera locations, Embedded Voxel Colouring removes the need for a priori threshold selection present in previous work. An efficient implementation is given along with results demonstrating the advantages of posteriori threshold selection.

Two dimensional computational fluid dynamic models for waste stabilisation ponds

Traditional waste stabilisation pond (WSP) models encounter problems predicting pond performance because they cannot account for the influence of pond features, such as inlet structure or pond geometry, on fluid hydrodynamics. In this study, two dimensional (2-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were compared to experimental residence time distributions (RTD) from literature. In one of the-three geometries simulated, the 2-D CFD model successfully predicted the experimental RTD. However, flow patterns in the other two geometries were not well described due to the difficulty of representing the three dimensional (3-D) experimental inlet in the 2-D CFD model, and the sensitivity of the model results to the assumptions used to characterise the inlet. Neither a velocity similarity nor geometric similarity approach to inlet representation in 2-D gave results correlating with experimental data. However. it was shown that 2-D CFD models were not affected by changes in values of model parameters which are difficult to predict, particularly the turbulent inlet conditions. This work suggests that 2-D CFD models cannot be used a priori to give an adequate description of the hydrodynamic patterns in WSP. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation of the interrelationship between manipulative therapy-induced hypoalgesia and sympathoexcitation

Objective: To investigate a proposed model in which manipulative therapy produces a treatment-specific initial hypoalgesic and sympathoexcitatory effect by activating a descending pain inhibitory system. The a priori hypothesis tested was that manipulative therapy produces mechanical hypoalgesia and sympatho-excitation beyond that produced by placebo or control. Furthermore, these effects would be correlated, thus supporting the proposed model. Design: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, repeated-measures study of the initial effect of treatment. Setting: Clinical neurophysiology laboratory. Subjects: Twenty-four subjects (13 women and 11 men; mean age, 49 yr) with chronic lateral epicondylalgia (average duration, 6.2 months). Intervention: Cervical spine lateral glide oscillatory manipulation, placebo and control. Outcome Measures: Pressure pain threshold, thermal pain threshold, pain-free grip strength test, upper limb tension test 2b, skin conductance, pileous and glabrous skin temperature and blood flux. Results: Treatment produced hypoalgesic and sympathoexcitatory changes significantly grater than those of placebo and control (p < .03). Confirmatory factor-analysis modeling, which was performed on the pain-related measures and the indicators of sympathetic nervous system function, demonstrated a significant correlation (r = .82) between the latencies of manipulation-induced hypoalgesia and sympathoexcitation. The Lagrange Multiplier test and Wald test indicated that the two latent factors parsimoniously and appropriately represented their observed variables. Conclusions: Manual therapy produces a treatment-specific initial hypoalgesic and sympathoexcitatory effect beyond that of placebo or control. The strong correlation between hypoalgesic and sympathoexcitatory effects suggests that a central control mechanism might be activated by manipulative therapy.

Wall material properties of yeast cells. Part II. Analysis

In the preceding paper (Part I) force-deformation data were measured with the compression experiment in conjunction with the initial radial stretch ratio and the initial wall-thickness to cell-radius ratio for baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). In this paper, these data have been analysed with the mechanical model of Smith et al. (Smith, Moxham & Middelberg (1998) Chemical Engineering Science, 53, 3913-3922) with the wall constitutive behaviour defined a priori as incompressible and linear-elastic. This analysis determined the mean Young's modulus ((E) over bar), mean maximum von Mises stress-at-failure (<(sigma)over bar>(VM,f)) and mean maximum von Mises strain-at failure (<(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f)) to be (E) over bar = 150 +/- 15 MPa, <(sigma)over bar>(VM,f) = 70 +/- 4 MPa and <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) = 0.75 +/- 0.08, respectively. The mean Young's modulus was not dependent (P greater than or equal to 0.05) on external osmotic pressure (0-0.8 MPa) nor compression rate (1.03-7.68 mu m/s) suggesting the incompressible linear-elastic relationship is representative of the actual cell-wall constitutive behaviour. Hydraulic conductivities were also determined and were comparable to other similar cell types (0-2.5 mu m/MPa s). The hydraulic conductivity distribution was not dependent on external osmotic pressure (0-0.8 MPa) nor compression rate (1.03-7.68 mu m/s) suggesting inclusion of cell-wall permeability in the mechanical model is justified. <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) was independent of cell diameter and to a first-approximation unaffected (P greater than or equal to 0.01) by external osmotic pressure and compression rate, thus providing a reasonable failure criterion. This criterion states that the cell-wall material will break when the strain exceeds <(epsilon)over bar>(VM,f) = 0.75 +/- 0.08. Variability in overall cell strength during compression was shown to be primarily due to biological variability in the maximum von Mises strain-at-failure. These data represent the first estimates of cell-wall material properties for yeast and the first fundamental analysis of cell-compression data. They are essential for describing cell-disruption at the fundamental level of fluid-cell interactions in general bioprocesses. They also provide valuable new measurements for yeast-cell physiologists. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Extraction of electrical characteristics from pixels of multifrequency EIT images

Computer modelling has shown that electrical characteristics of individual pixels may be extracted from within multiple-frequency electrical impedance tomography (MFEIT) images formed using a reference data set obtained from a purely resistive, homogeneous medium. In some applications it is desirable to extract the electrical characteristics of individual pixels from images where a purely resistive, homogeneous reference data set is not available. One such application of the technique of MFEIT is to allow the acquisition of in vivo images using reference data sets obtained from a non-homogeneous medium with a reactive component. However, the reactive component of the reference data set introduces difficulties with the extraction of the true electrical characteristics from the image pixels. This study was a preliminary investigation of a technique to extract electrical parameters from multifrequency images when the reference data set has a reactive component. Unlike the situation in which a homogenous, resistive data set is available, it is not possible to obtain the impedance and phase information directly from the image pixel values of the MFEIT images data set, as the phase of the reactive reference is not known. The method reported here to extract the electrical characteristics (the Cole-Cole plot) initially assumes that this phase angle is zero. With this assumption, an impedance spectrum can be directly extracted from the image set. To obtain the true Cole-Cole plot a correction must be applied to account for the inherent rotation of the extracted impedance spectrum about the origin, which is a result of the assumption. This work shows that the angle of rotation associated with the reactive component of the reference data set may be determined using a priori knowledge of the distribution of frequencies of the Cole-Cole plot. Using this angle of rotation, the true Cole-Cole plot can be obtained from the impedance spectrum extracted from the MFEIT image data set. The method was investigated using simulated data, both with and without noise, and also for image data obtained in vitro. The in vitro studies involved 32 logarithmically spaced frequencies from 4 kHz up to 1 MHz and demonstrated that differences between the true characteristics and those of the impedance spectrum were reduced significantly after application of the correction technique. The differences between the extracted parameters and the true values prior to correction were in the range from 16% to 70%. Following application of the correction technique the differences were reduced to less than 5%. The parameters obtained from the Cole-Cole plot may be useful as a characterization of the nature and health of the imaged tissues.

On the validity of the dispersion model of hepatic drug elimination when intravascular transit time densities are long-tailed

The dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions uses a single parameter, the dispersion number, to describe the hepatic elimination of xenobiotics and endogenous substances. An implicit a priori assumption of the model is that the transit time density of intravascular indicators is approximated by an inverse Gaussian distribution. This approximation is limited in that the model poorly describes the tail part of the hepatic outflow curves of vascular indicators. A sum of two inverse Gaussian functions is proposed as ail alternative, more flexible empirical model for transit time densities of vascular references. This model suggests that a more accurate description of the tail portion of vascular reference curves yields an elimination rate constant (or intrinsic clearance) which is 40% less than predicted by the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions. The results emphasize the need to accurately describe outflow curves in using them as a basis for determining pharmacokinetic parameters using hepatic elimination models. (C) 1997 Society for Mathematical Biology.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

A test of the hypothesis of ecological equivalence in an Australian subtropical rain forest

We tested the hypothesis that tree species in a subtropical rain forest in south-east Queensland are ecologically equivalent and therefore have identical environmental requirements for their regeneration. We assessed the evidence that juveniles of species differed in their distributions in treefall gap microsites and along gradients of light availability, soil pH, soil PO4-P availability and soil NO3-N availability. Pairwise comparisons were made on a subset of the common species selected on the basis that they showed a relatively high level of positive association, and would therefore, a priori, be expected to have similar regeneration requirements. Detailed comparisons between the species failed to demonstrate evidence for species differentiation with respect to their tolerance of the disturbance associated with gap microsites or to the gradient of NO3-N availability. However, species differed markedly in their distributions along the soil pH gradient and along the gradients of light availability and soil PO4-P availability. The overall level of ecological differentiation between the species is high: seven out of the 10 possible species pairings showed evidence for ecological differentiation. Such niche differentiation amongst the juveniles of tree species may play an important role in maintaining the species richness of rain-forest communities.

Boundary value problems for systems of difference equations associated with systems of second-order ordinary differential equations

We study difference equations which arise as discrete approximations to two-point boundary value problems for systems of second-order ordinary differential equations. We formulate conditions which guarantee a priori bounds on first differences of solutions to the discretized problem. We establish existence results for solutions to the discretized boundary value problems subject to nonlinear boundary conditions. We apply our results to show that solutions to the discrete problem converge to solutions of the continuous problem in an aggregate sense. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Difference equations associated with fully nonlinear boundary value problems for second order ordinary differential equations

We study the continuous problem y"=f(x,y,y'), xc[0,1], 0=G((y(0),y(1)),(y'(0), y'(1))), and its discrete approximation (y(k+1)-2y(k)+y(k-1))/h(2) =f(t(k), y(k), v(k)), k = 1,..., n-1, 0 = G((y(0), y(n)), (v(1), v(n))), where f and G = (g(0), g(1)) are continuous and fully nonlinear, h = 1/n, v(k) = (y(k) - y(k-1))/h, for k =1,..., n, and t(k) = kh, for k = 0,...,n. We assume there exist strict lower and strict upper solutions and impose additional conditions on f and G which are known to yield a priori bounds on, and to guarantee the existence of solutions of the continuous problem. We show that the discrete approximation also has solutions which approximate solutions of the continuous problem and converge to the solution of the continuous problem when it is unique, as the grid size goes to 0. Homotopy methods can be used to compute the solution of the discrete approximation. Our results were motivated by those of Gaines.

A prospective, randomized, pragmatic, health outcomes trial evaluating the incorporation of hylan G-F 20 into the treatment paradigm for patients with knee osteoarthritis (Part 1 of 2): clinical results

Objective: First, to assess the clinical effectiveness of hylan G-F 20 in an appropriate care treatment regimen (as defined by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1995 guidelines) as measured by validated disease-specific outcomes and health-related quality of life endpoints for patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. Second, to utilize the measures of effectiveness and costs in an economic evaluation (see accompanying manuscript). Design: A total of 255 patients with OA of the knee were enrolled by rheumatologists or orthopedic surgeons into a prospective, randomized, open-label, 1-year, multi-centred trial, conducted in Canada. Patients were randomized to 'Appropriate care with hylan G-F 20' (AC+H) or 'Appropriate care without hylan G-F 20' (AC). Data were collected at clinic visits (baseline, 12 months) and by telephone (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 months). Results: The AC+H group was superior to the AC group for all primary (% reduction in mean Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scale: 38% vs 13%, P=0.0001) and secondary effectiveness outcome measures. These differences were all statistically significant and exceeded the 20% difference between groups seta priori by the investigators as the minimum clinically important difference. Health-related quality of life improvements in the AC+H group were statistically superior for the WOMAC pain, stiffness and physical function (all P

The Limits of Rational Choice: New Institutionalism in the Test Bed of Central Banking Politics in Australia

This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.