Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Beyond the middle: A report about literacy and numeracy development of target group students in the middle years of schooling: Volume 1

The report was commissioned by the Department of Education, Science and Training to investigate the perceived efficacy of middle years programmes in all States and Territories in improving the quality of teaching, learning and student outcomes, especially in literacy and numeracy and for student members of particular target groups. These target groups included students from lower socio-economic communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, students with a language background other than English, rural and remote students, and students struggling with the transition from middle/upper primary to the junior secondary years. The project involved large scale national and international literature reviews on Australian and international middle years approaches as well as an analysis of key literacy and numeracy teaching and learning strategies being used. In the report, there is emergent evidence of the relative efficacy of a combination of explicit state policy, dedicated funding and curriculum and professional development frameworks that are focused on the improvement of classroom pedagogy in the middle years. The programs that evidenced the greatest current and potential value for target group students tended to have developed in state policy environments that encouraged a structural rather than adjunct approach to middle years innovations. The authors conclude that in order to translate the gains made into sustainable improvement of educational results in literacy and numeracy for target groups, there is a need for a second generation of middle years theorising, research, development and practice.