Models of alcohol use by young adults: An examination of various attitude-behavior theories

Objective: The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of various attitude-behavior theories in explaining alcohol use among young adults. The theory of reasoned action (TRA), the theory of planned behavior and an extension of the TRA that incorporates past behavior were compared by the method of maximum-likelihood estimation, as implemented in LISREL for Windows 8.12. Method: Respondents consisted of 122 university students (82 female) who were questioned about their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, past behavior and intentions relating to drinking behavior. Students received course credit for their participation in the research. Results: Overall, the results suggest that the extension of the theory of reasoned action which incorporates past behavior provides the best fit to the data. For these young adults, their intentions to drink alcohol were predicted by their past behavior as well as their perceptions of what important others think they should do (subjective norm). Conclusions: The main conclusions drawn from the research concern the importance of focusing on normative influences and past behavior in explaining young adult alcohol use. Issues regarding the relative merit of various alternative models and the need for greater clarity in the measure of attitudes are also discussed.

Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Poverty - dynamic and sustainability perspectives: Implications for welfare and policy with reference to India

After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional orthotropic viscoelastic finite element model of a human ligament

Ligaments undergo finite strain displaying hyperelastic behaviour as the initially tangled fibrils present straighten out, combined with viscoelastic behaviour (strain rate sensitivity). In the present study the anterior cruciate ligament of the human knee joint is modelled in three dimensions to gain an understanding of the stress distribution over the ligament due to motion imposed on the ends, determined from experimental studies. A three dimensional, finite strain material model of ligaments has recently been proposed by Pioletti in Ref. [2]. It is attractive as it separates out elastic stress from that due to the present strain rate and that due to the past history of deformation. However, it treats the ligament as isotropic and incompressible. While the second assumption is reasonable, the first is clearly untrue. In the present study an alternative model of the elastic behaviour due to Bonet and Burton (Ref. [4]) is generalized. Bonet and Burton consider finite strain with constant modulii for the fibres and for the matrix of a transversely isotropic composite. In the present work, the fibre modulus is first made to increase exponentially from zero with an invariant that provides a measure of the stretch in the fibre direction. At 12% strain in the fibre direction, a new reference state is then adopted, after which the material modulus is made constant, as in Bonet and Burton's model. The strain rate dependence can be added, either using Pioletti's isotropic approximation, or by making the effect depend on the strain rate in the fibre direction only. A solid model of a ligament is constructed, based on experimentally measured sections, and the deformation predicted using explicit integration in time. This approach simplifies the coding of the material model, but has a limitation due to the detrimental effect on stability of integration of the substantial damping implied by the nonlinear dependence of stress on strain rate. At present, an artificially high density is being used to provide stability, while the dynamics are being removed from the solution using artificial viscosity. The result is a quasi-static solution incorporating the effect of strain rate. Alternate approaches to material modelling and integration are discussed, that may result in a better model.

Phylogenetic relationships of Trypanosoma chelodina and Trypanosoma binneyi from Australian tortoises and platypuses inferred from small subunit rRNA analyses

Trypanosome infections are often difficult to detect by conventional microscopy and their pleomorphy often confounds differential diagnosis. Molecular techniques are now being used to diagnose infections and to determine phylogenetic relationships between species. Complete small subunit rRNA gene sequences were determined for isolates of Trypanosoma chelodina from the Brisbane River tortoise (Emydura signata), the saw-shelled tortoise (Elseya latisternum), and the eastern snake-necked tortoise (Chelodina longicollis) from southeast Queensland, Australia. Partial sequence data were also obtained for T. binneyi from a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) from Tasmania. Phylogenetic relationships between T. chelodina, T. binneyi and other species were examined by maximum parsimony and likelihood methods. The Australian tortoise and platypus trypanosomes did not exhibit any close phylogenetic relationships with those of mammals, reptiles or amphibians, but were closely related to each other, and to fish trypanosomes. This contra-indicates their co-evolution with their vertebrate hosts but does not exclude co-evolution with different groups of invertebrate vectors, notably insects and leeches.

On the heritability of inspection time and its covariance with IQ: A twin study

Using the classical twin design, this study investigates the influence of genetic factors on the large phenotypic variance in inspection time (IT), and whether the well established IT-IQ association can be explained by a common genetic factor. Three hundred ninety pairs of twins (184 monozygotic, MZ; 206 dizygotic, DZ) with a mean age of 16 years participated, and 49 pairs returned approximately 3 months, later for retesting. As in many IT studies, the pi figure stimulus was used and IT was estimated from the cumulative normal ogive. IT ranged from 39.4 to 774.1 ms (159 +/- 110.1 ms) with faster ITs (by an average of 26.9 ms) found in the retest session from which a reliability of .69 was estimated. Full-scale IQ (FIQ) was assessed by the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) and ranged from 79 to 145 (111 +/- 13). The phenotypic association between IT and FIQ was confirmed (- .35) and bivariate results showed that a common genetic factor accounted for 36% of the variance in IT and 32% of the variance in FIQ. The maximum likelihood estimate of the genetic correlation was - .63. When performance and verbal IQ (PIQ & VIQ) were analysed with IT, a stronger phenotypic and genetic relationship was found between PIQ and IT than with VIQ. A large part of the IT variance (64%) was accounted for by a unique environmental factor. Further genetic factors were needed to explain the remaining variance in IQ with a small component of unique environmental variance present. The separability of a shared genetic factor influencing IT and IQ from the total genetic variance in IQ suggests that IT affects a specific subcomponent of intelligence rather than a generalised efficiency. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) inferred from 28S rDNA sequences

The current classification of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) is based on a phylogeny generated from morphological characters. The present study tests the morphological phylogenetic hypothesis using molecular methods. Sequences from domains C2 and D1 and the partial domains C1 and D2 from the 28S rDNA gene for 26 species of monocotylids from six of the seven subfamilies were used. Trees were generated using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and maximum likelihood algorithms. The maximum parsimony tree, with branches showing less than 70% bootstrap support collapsed, had a topology identical to that obtained using the maximum likelihood analysis. The neighbour joining tree, with branches showing less than 70% support collapsed. differed only in its placement of Heterocotyle capricornensis as the sister group to the Decacotylinae clade. The molecular tree largely supports the subfamilies established using morphological characters. Differences are primarily how the subfamilies are related to each other. The monophyly of the Calicotylinae and Merizocotylinae and their sister group relationship is supported by high bootstrap values in all three methods, but relationships within the Merizocotylinae are unclear. Merizocotyle is paraphyletic and our data suggest that Mycteronastes and Thaumatocotyle, which were synonymized with Merizocotyle after the morphological cladistic analysis, should perhaps be resurrected as valid genera. The monophyly of the Monocotylinae and Decacotylinae is also supported by high bootstrap values. The Decacotylinae, which was considered previously to be the sister group to the Calicotylinae plus Merizocotylinae, is grouped in an unresolved polychotomy with the Monocotylinae and members of the Heterocotylinae. According to our molecular data, the Heterocotylinae is paraphyletic. Molecular data support a sister group relationship between Troglocephalus rhinobatidis and Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis to the exclusion of the other species of Neoheterocotyle and recognition of Troglocephalus renders Neoheterocotyle,le paraphyletic. We propose Troglocephalus incertae sedis. An updated classification and full species list of the Monocotylidae is provided. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life on the ocean wave: Testing some intergroup hypotheses in a naturalistic setting

A survey (N= 352) was conducted among British passengers of a cross-channel ferry. The survey aimed to test hypotheses drawn from Realistic Group Conflict, Social Identity and Contact theories using mainly a correlational design. However, an intervention by members of the outgroup (French fishermen blockading a port) also allowed a quasi-experimental test of the effects of a direct experience of intergroup conflict. Results supported the hypotheses since conflict and national identification were associated with more negative and with less positive attitudes toward the outgroup, while contact had the reverse effects. In addition, the salience of group membership in the contact relationship weakly moderated the effect of contact.

A parent-completed developmental questionnaire: Follow up of ex-premature infants

Objective: premature infants are at increased risk of developmental disability. Early identification of problems allows intervention to ameliorate or attenuate problems. A reliable screening tool allows triage of children in this high-risk population by identifying those unlikely to need full developmental assessment. To explore the test characteristics of an established parent-completed developmental assessment questionnaire 'Ages and Stages Questionnaire' (ASQ) in follow up of an Australian population of premature infants. Methodology: One hundred and sixty-seven children born prematurely with corrected ages 12- to 48-months attending the Growth and Development Clinic at the Mater Children's Hospital in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; 136 questionnaires 'ASQ' were returned completed (81%) and were compared to formal psychometric assessment (Griffith Mental Development Scales for 12- and 24-months, Bayley Mental Development Intelligence Scale for 18-months, McCarthy General Cognitive Intelligence Scale for 18-months). Developmental delay was considered to be present if any of the above psychometric assessments fell below 1.0 standard deviations (SD). The ASQ cut-off used was 2.0 SD (US data derived means and SD). Results: Aggregate results for all age groups comparing ASQ to psychometric assessments as 'gold standards' found the ASQ to have the following test characteristics: sensitivity (90%); specificity (77%); positive predictive value (40%); negative predictive value (98%): % over-referred (20%); % under-referred (1%); % agreement (79%). likelihood ratio for children failing the ASQ was 3.8 and for passing the ASQ was 0.13. Twenty-one children with known disabilities were included in the study and in 14 of these, the ASQ overall score agreed with the psychometric assessment (67%). Conclusion: The high negative predictive value of the ASQ supports its use as a screening tool for cognitive and motor delays in the follow up of ex-premature infants. This would need to be combined with other strategies as part of a comprehensive follow up program for ex-premature infants.

The effect of obstacle position on reach-to-grasp movements

Numerous everyday tasks require the nervous system to program a prehensile movement towards a target object positioned in a cluttered environment. Adult humans are extremely proficient in avoiding contact with any non-target objects (obstacles) whilst carrying out such movements. A number of recent studies have highlighted the importance of considering the control of reach-to-grasp (prehension) movements in the presence of such obstacles. The current study was constructed with the aim of beginning the task of studying the relative impact on prehension as the position of obstacles is varied within the workspace. The experimental design ensured that the obstacles were positioned within the workspace in locations where they did not interfere physically with the path taken by the hand when no obstacle was present. In all positions, the presence of an obstacle caused the hand to slow down and the maximum grip aperture to decrease. Nonetheless, the effect of the obstacle varied according to its position within the workspace. In the situation where an obstacle was located a small distance to the right of a target object, the obstacle showed a large effect on maximum grip aperture but a relatively small effect on movement time. In contrast, an object positioned in front and to the right of a target object had a large effect on movement speed but a relatively small effect on maximum grip aperture. It was found that the presence of two obstacles caused the system to decrease further the movement speed and maximum grip aperture. The position of the two obstacles dictated the extent to which their presence affected the movement parameters. These results show that the antic ipated likelihood of a collision with potential obstacles affects the planning of movement duration and maximum grip aperture in prehension.