Fitting a mixture model to three-mode three-way data with missing information

When the data consist of certain attributes measured on the same set of items in different situations, they would be described as a three-mode three-way array. A mixture likelihood approach can be implemented to cluster the items (i.e., one of the modes) on the basis of both of the other modes simultaneously (i.e,, the attributes measured in different situations). In this paper, it is shown that this approach can be extended to handle three-mode three-way arrays where some of the data values are missing at random in the sense of Little and Rubin (1987). The methodology is illustrated by clustering the genotypes in a three-way soybean data set where various attributes were measured on genotypes grown in several environments.

Exploratory spatial data analysis techniques for examining urban crime

Regional planners, policy makers and policing agencies all recognize the importance of better understanding the dynamics of crime. Theoretical and application-oriented approaches which provide insights into why and where crimes take place are much sought after. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis techniques, in particular, are proving to be essential or studying criminal activity. However, the capabilities of these quantitative methods continue to evolve. This paper explores the use of geographic information systems and spatial analysis approaches for examining crime occurrence in Brisbane, Australia. The analysis highlights novel capabilities for the analysis of crime in urban regions.

CD40 and CD86 upregulation with divergent CMRF44 expression on blood dendritic cells in inflammatory bowel diseases

OBJECTIVE: Dendritic cells (DC) are the only antigen-presenting cells that can activate naive T lymphocytes and initiate a primary immune response. They are also thought to have a role in immune tolerance. DC traffic from the blood to peripheral tissue where they become activated. They then present antigen and the costimulating signals necessary to initiate an immune response. In this study, we investigated the number, subsets, and activation pattern of circulating and intestinal DC from patients with clinically mild ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease. METHODS: Patients were recruited, if they were not taking immunosuppressive therapy, and were assessed for clinical severity of their disease using for UC, the Clinical Activity Index, and for Crohn's disease, the Crohn's Disease Activity Index. Blood CD11c(+) and CD11c(-) DC subsets, expression of costimulatory antigens, CD86 and CD40, and the early differentiation/activation antigen, CMRF44, were enumerated by multicolor flow cytometry of lineage negative (lin(-) = CD3(-), CD19(-), CD14(-), CD16(-)) HLA-DR+ DC. These data were compared with age-matched healthy and the disease control groups of chronic noninflammatory GI diseases (cGI), acute noninflammatory GI diseases (aGI), and chronic non-GI inflammation (non-GI). In addition, cryostat sections of colonoscopic biopsies from healthy control patients and inflamed versus noninflamed gut mucosa of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients were examined for CD86(+) and CD40(+)lin(-) cells. RESULTS: Twenty-one Crohn's disease and 25 UC patients, with mean Crohn's Disease Activity Index of 98 and Clinical Activity Index of 3.1, and 56 healthy controls, five cGI, five aGI, and six non-GI were studied. CD11c(+) and CD11c(-) DC subsets did not differ significantly between Crohn's, UC, and healthy control groups. Expression of CD86 and CD40 on freshly isolated blood DC from Crohn's patients appeared higher (16.6%, 31%) and was significantly higher in UC (26.6%, 46.3%) versus healthy controls (5.5%, 25%) (p = 0.004, p = 0.012) and non-GI controls (10.2%, 22.8%) (p = 0.012, p = 0.008), but not versus cGI or aGI controls. CD86(+) and CD40(+) DC were also present in inflamed colonic and ileal mucosa from UC and Crohn's patients but not in noninflamed IBD mucosa or normal mucosa. Expression of the CMRF44 antigen was low on freshly isolated DC, but it was upregulated after 24-h culture on DC from all groups, although significantly less so on DC from UC versus Crohn's or healthy controls (p = 0.024). The CMRF44(+) antigen was mainly associated with CD11c(+) DC, and in UC was inversely related to the Clinical Activity Index (r = -0.69, p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: There is upregulation of costimulatory molecules on blood DC even in very mild IBD but surprisingly, there is divergent expression of the differentiation/activation CMRF44 antigen. Upregulation of costimulatory molecules and divergent expression of CMRF44 in blood DC was also apparent in cGI and aGI but not in non-GI or healthy controls, whereas intestinal CD86(+) and CD40(+) DC were found only in inflamed mucosa from IBD patients. Persistent or distorted activation of blood DC or divergent regulation of costimulatory and activation antigens may have important implications for gut mucosal immunity and inflammation. (Am J Gastroenterol 2001;96:2946-2956. (C) 2001 by Am. Coll. of Gastroenterology).

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy programme for alcohol dependence impact of naltrexone use on outcome

Objective: Cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) has been effectively used in the treatment of alcohol dependence. Clinical studies report that the anticraving drug naltrexone, is a useful adjunct to treatment. Currently, few data are available on the impact of adding this medication to programmes in more typical, outpatient, and rehabilitation settings. The objective of this study was to examine the impact on outcome of adding naltrexone to an established outpatient alcohol rehabilitation program which employed CBT. Method: Fifty patients participated in an established 12-week, outpatient, 'contract'-based alcohol abstinence programme which employed CBT. They also received naltrexone 50 mg orally daily (CBT + naltrexone). Outcomes were compared with 50 historical, matched controls, all of whom participated in the same programme without an anticraving medication (CBT alone). All patients met DSM-IV criteria for alcohol dependence. Results: Programme attendance across the eight treatment sessions was lower in the CBT alone group (p < 0.001). Relapse to alcohol use occurred sooner and more frequently in the CBT alone group (p < 0.001). Rehabilitation programme completion at 12 weeks was 88% (CBT + naltrexone) compared with 36% for (CBT alone) (p < 0.001). Alcohol abstinence at 12 weeks was 76% (CBT + naltrexone) compared with 18% (CBT alone) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: When employing the same outpatient rehabilitation programme and comparing outcomes using matched historical controls, the addition of naltrexone substantially improves programme attendance, programme completion and reported alcohol abstinence. In a typical outpatient programme, naltrexone addition was associated with significantly improved programme participation, better outcomes and was well tolerated.

Exploring through cover - the integrated interpretation of high resolution aeromagnetic, airborne electromagnetic and ground gravity data from the Grant's Patch area, Eastern Goldfields Province, Archaean Yigarn Craton Part B; Gravity inversion as a

The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

Investigating technical and scale efficiencies of Australian universities through data envelopment analysis

Performance indicators in the public sector have often been criticised for being inadequate and not conducive to analysing efficiency. The main objective of this study is to use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relative efficiency of Australian universities. Three performance models are developed, namely, overall performance, performance on delivery of educational services, and performance on fee-paying enrolments. The findings based on 1995 data show that the university sector was performing well on technical and scale efficiency but there was room for improving performance on fee-paying enrolments. There were also small slacks in input utilisation. More universities were operating at decreasing returns to scale, indicating a potential to downsize. DEA helps in identifying the reference sets for inefficient institutions and objectively determines productivity improvements. As such, it can be a valuable benchmarking tool for educational administrators and assist in more efficient allocation of scarce resources. In the absence of market mechanisms to price educational outputs, which renders traditional production or cost functions inappropriate, universities are particularly obliged to seek alternative efficiency analysis methods such as DEA.

Single institution outcomes of treatment of severe aplastic anaemia

Background: In severe aplastic anaemia, the treatment of choice for young patients with a human leucocyte antigen-matched sibling is now established as allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). In older patients and in those without a matched sibling donor, immunosuppressive therapy is the usual first option. 'Alternative' marrow donors are emerging as an option for those without a matched sibling donor. Aims: To review 10 years of local experience in treating severe aplastic anaemia with BMT and immunosuppressive therapy with emphasis on long-term outcomes. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed of all patients with severe aplastic anaemia presenting to the Royal Brisbane and Royal Children's Hos- pitals between 1989 and 1999. Data were abstracted regarding patient demographics, pretreatment characteristics and outcome measures, including response rates, overall survival and long-term complications. Results: Twenty-seven consecutive patients were identified, 12 treated with immunosuppression alone and 15 with BMT. In these two groups, transfusion independence was attained in 25% and 100%, respectively, with overall survival being 36% and 100%, respectively. Those treated with immunosuppression were significantly older (median 41.5 versus 22 years, P = 0.008). Long-term survivors of either treatment had extremely low morbidity. Three patients carried pregnancies to term post-transplant. Three patients received alternative donor BMT with correspondingly excellent survival. Conclusions: Patients treated with allogeneic BMT for severe aplastic anaemia enjoyed extremely good long-term survival and minimal morbidity. Patients treated with immunosuppressive therapy had a poorer outcome reflecting their older age and different usage of therapies over the past decade. Optimal treatment strategies for severe aplastic anaemia remain to be determined.