Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theory and applications of fuzzy Volterra integral equations

Formulations of fuzzy integral equations in terms of the Aumann integral do not reflect the behavior of corresponding crisp models. Consequently, they are ill-adapted to describe physical phenomena, even when vagueness and uncertainty are present. A similar situation for fuzzy ODEs has been obviated by interpretation in terms of families of differential inclusions. The paper extends this formalism to fuzzy integral equations and shows that the resulting solution sets and attainability sets are fuzzy and far better descriptions of uncertain models involving integral equations. The investigation is restricted to Volterra type equations with mildly restrictive conditions, but the methods are capable of extensive generalization to other types and more general assumptions. The results are illustrated by integral equations relating to control models with fuzzy uncertainties.

A simulated annealing algorithm for finding consensus sequences

Motivation: A consensus sequence for a family of related sequences is, as the name suggests, a sequence that captures the features common to most members of the family. Consensus sequences are important in various DNA sequencing applications and are a convenient way to characterize a family of molecules. Results: This paper describes a new algorithm for finding a consensus sequence, using the popular optimization method known as simulated annealing. Unlike the conventional approach of finding a consensus sequence by first forming a multiple sequence alignment, this algorithm searches for a sequence that minimises the sum of pairwise distances to each of the input sequences. The resulting consensus sequence can then be used to induce a multiple sequence alignment. The time required by the algorithm scales linearly with the number of input sequences and quadratically with the length of the consensus sequence. We present results demonstrating the high quality of the consensus sequences and alignments produced by the new algorithm. For comparison, we also present similar results obtained using ClustalW. The new algorithm outperforms ClustalW in many cases.

Lexicographic decomposition of chains and the concept of a planar chain

In an earlier paper [Journal of Mathematical Economics, 37 (2002) 17-38], we proved that if a preference relation on a commodity space is non-representable by a real-valued function then that chain is necessarily a long chain, a planar chain, an Aronszajn-like chain or a Souslin chain. In this paper, we study the class of planar chains, the simplest example of which is the Debreu chain (R-2, <(l)). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and stability of Japanese encephalitis virus RNA and virus viability in dead infected mosquitoes under different storage conditions

A semi-nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was evaluated for detection of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus in infected mosquitoes stored under simulated northern Australian summer conditions. The effect of silica gel, thymol, and a combination of the two on RNA stability and virus viability in dead mosquitoes were also examined. While JE virus RNA was relatively stable in mosquitoes held for up to 14 days after death, viable virus was not detected after day 1. Thymol vapor inhibited fungal contamination. Detection of single mosquitoes infected with JE virus in large pools of mosquitoes was also investigated. Single laboratory-infected mosquitoes were detected in pools of less than or equal to200 mosquitoes and in pools diluted to 0.2/100 and 0.1/100 mosquitoes, using the semi-nested PCR. However, the ability to detect live virus decreased as pool size increased. The semi-nested PCR proved more expensive than virus isolation for pools of 100 mosquitoes. However, the semi-nested PCR was faster and more economical using larger pools. Results indicate that surveillance of JE virus in mosquitoes using the semi-nested PCR is an alternative to monitoring seroconversions in sentinel pigs.

Transpecific microsatellites for hard pines M. Shepherd, M. Cross, T. Maguire, M. Dieters, C. Williams, R. Henry

Microsatellites are difficult to recover from large plant genomes so cross-specific utilisation is an important source of markers. Fifty micro satellites were tested for cross-specific amplification and polymorphism to two New World hard pine species, slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii) and Caribbean pine (R caribaea var. hondurensis). Twenty-nine (58%) markers amplified in both hard pine species, and 23 of these 29 were polymorphic. Soft pine (subgenus Strobus) microsatellite markers did amplify, but none were polymorphic. Pinus elliottii var. elliottii and R caribaea var. hondurensis showed mutational changes in the flanking regions and the repeat motif that were informative for Pinus spp. phylogenetic relationships. Most allele length variation could be attributed to variability in repeat unit number. There was no evidence for ascertainment bias.

Research into telehealth applications in speech-language pathology

A literature review was conducted to investigate the extent to which telehealth has been researched within the domain of speech-language pathology and the outcomes of this research. A total of 13 studies were identified. Three early studies demonstrated that telehealth was feasible, although there was no discussion of the cost-effectiveness of this process in terms of patient outcomes. The majority of the subsequent studies indicated positive or encouraging outcomes resulting from telehealth. However, there were a number of shortcomings in the research, including a lack of cost-benefit information, failure to evaluate the technology itself, an absence of studies of the educational and informational aspects of telehealth in relation to speech-language pathology, and the use of telehealth in a limited range of communication disorders. Future research into the application of telehealth to speech-language pathology services must adopt a scientific approach, and have a well defined development and evaluation framework that addresses the effectiveness of the technique, patient outcomes and satisfaction, and the cost-benefit relationship.

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution of terminal mono- and bis-epoxides in the synthesis of insect pheromones: routes to (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetate, (-)-(R)-10-methyl-2-tridecanone, (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol), (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dime

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution (HKR) of functionalised epoxides using (salen)Co(OAc) complexes provides enantiomerically enriched epoxides and diols, which have been transformed into important insect sex pheromones. In this general approach, (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetates from the smaller tea tortrix moth were obtained, as was (-)-(R)-10-methyltridecan-2-one from the southern corn rootworm. The (S)-epoxide obtained from undec-1-en-6-yne was transformed to (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol) from ant-lions. HKR of appropriate bisepoxides was also investigated, and transformations of the resulting bisepoxides and epoxydiols provided (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dimethylnonylpropanoate from corn rootworms, (-)-(6R,12R)-6,12-dimethylpentadecan-2-one from the female banded cucumber beetle, and (-)-(2S,11S)-2,11-diacetoxytridecane and (+)-(2S,12S)-2,12-diacetoxytridecane from female pea-midges. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fixed point theorems of upper semicontinuous multivalued mappings with applications in hyperconvex metric spaces

In the present paper, we establish two fixed point theorems for upper semicontinuous multivalued mappings in hyperconvex metric spaces and apply these to study coincidence point problems and minimax problems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.