Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matching occupation and self: Does matching theory adequately model children's thinking?

The present exploratory-descriptive cross-national study focused on the career development of 11- to 14-yr.-old children, in particular whether they can match their personal characteristics with their occupational aspirations. Further, the study explored whether their matching may be explained in terms of a fit between person and environment using Holland's theory as an example. Participants included 511 South African and 372 Australian children. Findings relate to two items of the Revised Career Awareness Survey that require children to relate personal-social knowledge to their favorite occupation. Data were analyzed in three stages using descriptive statistics, i.e., mean scores, frequencies, and percentage agreement. The study indicated that children perceived their personal characteristics to be related to their occupational aspirations. However, how this matching takes place is not adequately accounted for in terms of a career theory such as that of Holland.

Canine gastrointestinal parasitic zoonoses in India

Although well recognized and studied in developed countries, canine parasitic zoonoses pose a lowly prioritized public health problem in developing countries such as India, where conditions are conducive for transmission. A study of the most recent parasite survey determining prevalence and epidemiology of canine parasitic zoonoses among tea-growing communities of northeast India demonstrated the endemicity of the problem. This particular study serves as a model using conventional, as well as molecular parasitological, tools to provide novel insights into the role of dogs as mechanical transmitters of human parasites such as Ascaris and Trichuris, and discusses the risks dogs pose with regards to zoonotic transmission of hookworms and Giardia.

Non-diagonal solutions of the reflection equation for the trigonometric A((1)) (n-1) vertex model

We obtain a class of non-diagonal solutions of the reflection equation for the trigonometric A(n-1)((1)) vertex model. The solutions can be expressed in terms of intertwinner matrix and its inverse, which intertwine two trigonometric R-matrices. In addition to a discrete (positive integer) parameter l, 1 less than or equal to l less than or equal to n, the solution contains n + 2 continuous boundary parameters.

Drinfield twists and alegebraic Bethe ansatz of the supersymmetric t-J model

We construct the Drinfeld twists (factorizing F-matrices) for the supersymmetric t-J model. Working in the basis provided by the F-matrix (i.e. the so-called F-basis), we obtain completely symmetric representations of the monodromy matrix and the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model. These enable us to resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors for the gl(2\1) invariant t-J model.

Ground-State Entanglement of the BCS Model

The concept of local concurrence is used to quantify the entanglement between a single qubit and the remainder of a multiqubit system. For the ground state of the BCS model in the thermodynamic limit the set of local concurrences completely describes the entanglement. As a measure for the entanglement of the full system we investigate the average local concurrence (ALC). We find that the ALC satisfies a simple relation with the order parameter. We then show that for finite systems with a fixed particle number, a relation between the ALC and the condensation energy exposes a threshold coupling. Below the threshold, entanglement measures besides the ALC are significant.

A model of migrants' remittances with human capital investment and intrafamilial transfers

This study analyzes data on migrants' remittances using a two-period theory of intergenerational transfers based on an informal, intrafamilial loan arrangement using weak altruism, a behavior between strong altruism and pure self-interest. The model provides an integrated theory of migrants' remittances, human capital investment decisions, and intrafamilial transfers applicable to low-income countries with no official pension schemes and imperfect capital markets. Propositions, derived from the theory, are tested, re-analyzing original survey data on remittances of Pacific island migrants in Sydney. When weak altruism and strong altruism yield opposite predictions, the econometric results tend to confirm the former hypothesis and invalidate the latter.

Non-cancer mortality among people diagnosed with cancer (Australia)

Objective To investigate whether people diagnosed with cancer have an increased risk of death from non-cancer causes compared to the general population. Methods The non-cancer mortality of people diagnosed with cancer in Queensland (Australia) between 1982 and 2002 who had not died before 1 January 1993 was compared to the mortality of the total Queensland population, matching by age group and sex, and reporting by standardised mortality ratios. Results Compared to the non-cancer mortality in the general population, cancer patients (all cancers combined) were nearly 50% more likely to die of non-cancer causes (SMR = 149.9, 95% CI = [147-153]). This varied by cancer site. Overall melanoma patients had significantly lower non-cancer mortality, female breast cancer patients had similar non-cancer mortality to the general population, while increased non-cancer mortality risks were observed for people diagnosed with cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and lung cancer. Conclusions Although cancer-specific death rates underestimate the mortality directly associated with a diagnosis of cancer, quantifying the degree of underestimation is difficult due to various competing explanations. There remains an important role for future research in understanding the causes of morbidity among cancer survivors, particularly those looking at both co-morbid illnesses and reductions in quality of life.

Developmental vitamin D deficiency alters adult behaviour: An informative animal model of schizophrenia

Background: There is growing evidence that vitamin D is active in the brain but until recently there was a lack of evidence about its role during brain development. Guided by certain features of the epidemiology of schizophrenia, we have explored the role of vitamin D in the developing brain and behaviour using whole animal models. Methods: Sprague-Dawley rats were fed a vitamin D deficient diet (DVD) or control diet 6 weeks prior to mating and housed under UVB-free lighting conditions. On the day of birth all rats were fed a control diet for the remainder of the study. We observed behaviour at two timepoints; on the day of birth to study maternal behaviour, and at 10 weeks of age to study offspring behaviour in adulthood, under baseline and drug induced conditions (MK-801, haloperidol, amphetamine). Results: Prenatal vitamin D deficiency results in subtle alterations in maternal behaviour as well as long lasting effects on the adult offspring, despite a return to normal vitamin D levels during postnatal life. These affects were specific to transient prenatal vitamin D depletion as adult vitamin D depletion, combined prenatal and chronic postnatal vitamin D depletion, or ablation of the vitamin D receptor in mice led to markedly different outcomes. Conclusions: The developmental vitamin D (DVD) model now draws strength from epidemiological evidence of schizophrenia and animal experiments. Although the DVD model does not replicate every aspect of schizophrenia, it has several attractive features: (1) the exposure is based on clues from epidemiology; (2) it reproduces the increase in lateral ventricles; (3) it reproduces well-regarded behavioural phenotypes associated with schizophrenia (e.g. MK- 801 induced hyperlocomotion); and (4) it implicates a disturbance in dopamine signaling. In summary, low prenatal levels of vitamin D can influence critical components of orderly brain development and that this has a long lasting effect on behaviour.