On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Determination of viscosity of some Australian honeys based on composition

Rheological properties of four unprocessed unifloral Australian honeys (heath, tea tree, yapunya, and yellow box) and an artificial honey were analysed at 20degreesC. A model previously used to describe viscosity data of various sugar and sugar mixtures was used to describe the concentration dependence of the viscosity of honey samples with varying moisture contents. The model successfully described the sugar concentration dependence of the unadulterated and medium moisture (70-85% solids) range honey samples.

Dissolution of sucrose crystals in the anhydrous sorbitol melt

The dissolution of a sugar (sucrose as a model) with higher melting point was studied in a molten food polyol (sorbitol as a model) with lower melting point, both in anhydrous state. A DSC and optical examination revealed the dissolution of anhydrous sucrose crystals (mp 192 degreesC) in anhydrous sorbitol (mp 99 degreesC) liquid melt. The sucrose-sorbitol crystal mixtures at the proportions of 10, 30, 60, 100 and 150 g of sucrose per 100 g of sorbitol were heat scanned in a DSC to above melting endotherm of sorbitol but well below the onset temperature of melting of sucrose at three different temperatures 110, 130 and 150 degreesC. The heat scanning modes used were with or without isothermal holding. The dissolution of sucrose in the sorbitol liquid melt was manifested by an increase in the glass transition temperature of the melt and corresponding decrease in endothermic melting enthalpy of sucrose. At given experimental conditions, as high as 25 and 85% of sucrose dissolved in the sorbitol melt during 1 h of isothermal holding at 110 and 150 degreesC, respectively. Optical microscopic observation also clearly showed the reduction in the size of sucrose crystals in sorbitol melt during the isothermal holding at those temperatures. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic characterization of pilin glycosylation and phase variation in Neisseria meningitidis

Pili of Neisseria meningitidis are a key virulence factor, being the major adhesin of this capsulate organism and contributing to specificity for the human host. Pili are post-translationally modified by addition of either an O-linked trisaccharide, Gal (beta1-4) Gal (alpha1-3) 2,4-diacetamido-2,4,6-trideoxyhexose or an O-linked disaccharide Gal (alpha1,3) GlcNAc. The role of these structures in meningococcal pathogenesis has not been resolved. In previous studies we identified two separate genetic loci, pglA and pglBCD, involved in pilin glycosylation. Putative functions have been allocated to these genes; however, there are not enough genes to account for the complete biosynthesis of the described structures, suggesting additional genes remain to be identified. In addition, it is not known why some strains express the trisaccharide structure and some the disaccharide structure. In order to find additional genes involved in the biosynthesis. of these structures, we used the recently published group A strain Z2491 and group B strain MC58 Neisseria meningitidis genomes and the unfinished Neisseria meningitidis group C strain FAM18 and Neisseria gonorrhoeae strain FA1090 genomes to identify novel genes involved in pilin glycosylation, based on homology to known oligosaccharide biosynthetic genes. We identified a new gene involved in pilin glycosylation designated pglE and examined four additional genes pgIB/B2, pglF, pglG and pglH. A strain survey revealed that pglE and pglF were present in each strain examined. The pglG, pglH and pgIB2 polymorphisms were not found in strain C311#3 but were present in a large number of clinical isolates. Insertional mutations were constructed in pglE and pglF in N. meningitidis strain C311#3, a strain with well-defined lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and pilin-linked glycan structures. Increased gel migration of the pilin subunit molecules of pglE and pglF mutants was observed by Western analysis, indicating truncation of the trisaccharide structure. Antisera specific for the C311#3 trisaccharide failed to react with pilin from these pglE and pglF mutants. GC-MS analysis of the sugar composition of the pglE mutant showed a reduction in galactose compared with C311#3 wild type. Analysis of amino acid sequence homologies has suggested specific roles for pglE and pglF in the biosynthesis of the trisaccharide structure. Further, we present evidence that pglE, which contains heptanucleotide repeats, is responsible for the phase variation between trisaccharide and disaccharide structures in strain C311#3 and other strains. We also present evidence that pglG, pglH and pgIB2 are potentially phase variable.