318 resultados para Risk identification


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Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

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A diligent and careful examination of the mouth and oral structures has been historically deficient in revealing premalignant and malignant oral lesions. Conventional screening practice for oral neoplastic lesions involves visual scrutiny of the oral tissues with the naked eye under projected incandescent or halogen illumination. Visualization is the principal strategy used to find patients with lesions at risk for malignant transformation; hence, any procedure which highlights neoplastic lesions should aid the clinician. This pilot study examined the usefulness of acetic acid wash and chemiluminescent light (Vizilite) in enhancing visualization of oral mucosal white lesions, and its ability to highlight malignant and potentially malignant lesions. Fifty five patients referred for assessment of a white lesion, were prospectively screened with Vizilite, and an incisional biopsy performed for a definitive diagnosis. The age, sex, and smoking status of all patients were recorded, and all lesions were photographed. The visibility, location, size, border, and presence of satellite lesions, were also recorded. The Vizilite tool enhanced intraoral visualization of 26 white lesions, but it could not distinguish between epithelial hyperplasia, dysplasia, or carcinoma. Indeed, all lesions appeared ‘‘aceto-white’’, regardless of the definitive diagnosis. On one occasion, Vizilite aided in the identification of a satellite lesion that was not observed by routine visual inspection. Vizilite appears to be a useful visualization tool, but it does not aid in the identification of malignant and potentially malignant lesions of the oral mucosa.

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The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

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Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

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Bacteria phenotypically resembling members of the phylogenetically distinct planctomycete group of the domain Bacteria were isolated from postlarvae of the giant tiger prawn, Penaeus monodon. A selective medium designed in the light of planctomycete antibiotic resistance characteristics was used for this isolation. Planctomycetes were isolated from both healthy and monodon baculovirus-infected prawn postlarvae, The predominant colony type recovered from postlarvae regardless of viral infection status was nonpigmented. Other, less commonly observed types were pink or orange pigmented, A planctomycete-specific 16S rRNA-directed probe was designed and used to screen the isolates for their identity as planctomycetes prior to molecular phylogenetic characterization. 16S rRNA genes from nine prawn isolates together with two planctomycete reference strains (Planctomyces brasiliensis and Gemmata obscuriglobus) were sequenced and compared with reference sequences from the planctomycetes and other members of the domain Bacteria, Phylogenetic analyses and sequence signatures of the 16S rRNA genes demonstrated that the prawn isolates were members of the planctomycete group, Five representatives of the predominant nonpigmented colony type were members of the Pirellula group within the planctomycetes, as were three pink-pigmented colony type representatives. Homology values and tree topology indicated that representatives of the nonpigmented and pink-pigmented colony types formed two discrete clusters within the Pirellula group, not identical to any known Pirellula species, A sole representative of the orange colony type was a member of the Planctomyces group, virtually identical in 16S rDNA sequence to P. brasiliensis, and exhibited distinctive morphology.

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An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

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This report describes the identification of a murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) G protein-coupled receptor (GCR) homolog. This open reading frame (M33) is most closely related to, and collinear with, human cytomegalovirus UL33, and homologs are also present in human herpesvirus 6 and 7 (U12 for both viruses). Conserved counterparts in the sequenced alpha- or gammaherpesviruses have not been identified to date, suggesting that these genes encode proteins which are important for the biological characteristics of betaherpesviruses. We have detected transcripts for both UL33 and M33 as early as 3 or 4 h postinfection, and these reappear at late times. In addition, we have identified N-terminal splicing for both the UL33 and M33 RNA transcripts. For both open reading frames, splicing results in the introduction of amino acids which are highly conserved among known GCRs. To characterise the function of the M33 in the natural host, two independent MCMV recombinant viruses were prepared, each of which possesses an M33 open reading frame which has been disrupted with the beta-galactosidase gene. While the recombinant M33 null viruses showed no phenotypic differences in replication from wild-type MCMV in primary mouse embryo fibroblasts in vitro, they showed severely restricted growth in the salivary glands of infected mice. These data suggest that M33 plays an important role in vivo, in particular in the dissemination to or replication in the salivary gland, and provide the first evidence for the function of a viral GCR homolog in vivo.

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Fast synaptic neurotransmission is mediated by transmitter-activated conformational changes in ligand-gated ion channel receptors, culminating in opening of the integral ion channel pore. Human hereditary hyperekplexia, or startle disease, is caused by mutations in both the intracellular or extracellular loops flanking the pore-lining M2 domain of the glycine receptor alpha 1 subunit. These flanking domains are designated the M1-M2 loop and the M2-M3 loop respectively. We show that four startle disease mutations and six additional alanine substitution mutations distributed throughout both loops result in uncoupling of the ligand binding sites from the channel activation gate. We therefore conclude that the M1-M2 and M2-M3 loops act in parallel to activate the channel. Their locations strongly suggest that they act as hinges governing allosteric control of the M2 domain. As the members of the ligand-gated ion channel superfamily share a common structure, this signal transduction model may apply to all members of this superfamily.

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Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

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Papillomaviruses (PVs) bind in a specific and saturable fashion to a range of epithelial and other cell lines. Treatment of cells with trypsin markedly reduces their ability to bind virus particles, suggesting that binding is mediated via a cell membrane protein. We have investigated the interaction bf human PV type 6b L1 virus-like particles (VLPs) with two epithelial cell lines, CV-1 and HaCaT, which bind VLPs, and a B-cell line (DG75) previously shown not to bind VLPs. Immunoprecipitation of a mixture of PV VLPs with [S-35]methionine-labeled cell extracts and with biotin-labeled cell surface proteins identified four proteins from CV-1 and HaCaT cells of 220, 120, 87, and 35 kDa that reacted with VLPs and were not present in DG75 cells. The alpha(6) beta(4) integrin complex has subunits corresponding to the VLP precipitated proteins, and the tissue distribution of this complex suggested that it was a candidate human PV receptor. Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) to the alpha(6) or beta(4) integrin subunits precipitated VLPs from a mixture of CV-1 cell proteins and VLPs, whereas MAbs to other integrin subunits did not. An alpha(6) integrin-specific MAb (GoH3) inhibited VLP binding to CV-1 and HaCaT cells, whereas an anti-beta(4) integrin MAb and a range of integrin-specific and other MAbs did not. Furthermore, human laminin, the natural ligand for the alpha(6) beta(4) integrin, was able to block VLP binding. By use of sections of monkey esophagus, the distribution of alpha(6), integrin expression in the basal epithelium was shown to coincide with the distribution of bound VLPs. Taken together, these data suggest that VLPs bind specifically to the alpha(6) integrin subunit and that integrin complexes containing alpha(6) integrin complexed with either beta(1) or beta(4) integrins may act as a receptor for PV binding and entry into epithelial cells.

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Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.