127 resultados para Probabilistic mean value theorem
Resumo:
Difference equations which may arise as discrete approximations to two-point boundary value problems for systems of second-order, ordinary differential equations are investigated and conditions are formulated under which solutions to the discrete problem are unique. Some existence, uniqueness implies existence, and convergence theorems for solutions to the discrete problem are also presented.
Resumo:
B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.
Resumo:
[1] Comprehensive measurements are presented of the piezometric head in an unconfined aquifer during steady, simple harmonic oscillations driven by a hydrostatic clear water reservoir through a vertical interface. The results are analyzed and used to test existing hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic, small-amplitude theories along with capillary fringe effects. As expected, the amplitude of the water table wave decays exponentially. However, the decay rates and phase lags indicate the influence of both vertical flow and capillary effects. The capillary effects are reconciled with observations of water table oscillations in a sand column with the same sand. The effects of vertical flows and the corresponding nonhydrostatic pressure are reasonably well described by small-amplitude theory for water table waves in finite depth aquifers. That includes the oscillation amplitudes being greater at the bottom than at the top and the phase lead of the bottom compared with the top. The main problems with respect to interpreting the measurements through existing theory relate to the complicated boundary condition at the interface between the driving head reservoir and the aquifer. That is, the small-amplitude, finite depth expansion solution, which matches a hydrostatic boundary condition between the bottom and the mean driving head level, is unrealistic with respect to the pressure variation above this level. Hence it cannot describe the finer details of the multiple mode behavior close to the driving head boundary. The mean water table height initially increases with distance from the forcing boundary but then decreases again, and its asymptotic value is considerably smaller than that previously predicted for finite depth aquifers without capillary effects. Just as the mean water table over-height is smaller than predicted by capillarity-free shallow aquifer models, so is the amplitude of the second harmonic. In fact, there is no indication of extra second harmonics ( in addition to that contained in the driving head) being generated at the interface or in the interior.
Resumo:
Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
Resumo:
1. Two broiler experiments and a layer experiments were conducted on Kunitz trypsin inhibitor (Kti) soybeans (SB) of low trypsin inhibitor (TI) activity to determine their nutritive value when included as mash in least-cost poultry diets. 2. Experiment 1 compared chick performance on the Kti or raw SB using a commercial full-fat SB meal (FFSBM) and a solvent extracted SB meal (SBM) as controls during a 20 d experimental period. Broiler experiment 2 compared Kti and raw SB, non-steamed, or steam-pelleted with and without DL-methionine supplementation added to every treatment containing 170 g SB/kg. For each broiler experiment the levels of each SB were 70, 120 and 170 g/kg with the control birds fed only 170 g SB/kg. 3. The layer experiment, compared steam-pelleted Kti and raw SB against a non-steamed Kti and raw SB each fed at two levels (70 and 110 g/kg) x 30 replicates from 29 weeks of age for 19 weeks in a completely randomised design. Production parameters were measured when diets were formulated to contain minimum required specifications and calculated apparent metabolisable energy (AME). At the completion of each trial, 2 broiler birds from each cage and 5 layer birds per treatment were killed, weighed, and their liver and pancreas weighed. 4. Both broiler experiments indicated that production parameters on the Kti SB treatments were significantly lower (P < 0.05) than on the two commercial control SB treatments. However, the Kti treatments were superior to the raw SB treatments. 5. Pancreas weight increased with increasing inclusion of both raw and Kti SB, suggesting that a TI was causing the depression in performance. The AME of the Kti SB was similar to that of commercial FFSB meal. After steam conditioning, the raw SB meal AME value of 9.5 MJ/kg dry matter (DM) was improved to 14.1 MJ/kg DM by reduced TI activity, but this AME improvement with TI activity reduction, plus the supplementation with DL-methionine on birds fed the raw SB had no effect (P > 0.05) on any parameter evaluated in experiment 2. 6. The layer experiment showed that hens on the Kti SB treatments had significantly greater live weight gain (LWG), egg weight and daily egg mass than birds given raw SB. A reduced food intake (FI) was observed in the Kti treatments but egg mass was generally similar to that on the FFSB control diet, indicating that Kti SB supported excellent egg production at an inclusion of 110 g/kg. The depressed performance observed for broiler chicks suggest that younger birds are more susceptible to the effects of SB TI.