Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Impact of land-use on soil organic matter quality in south-western Australia - characterization with C-13 CP/MAS NMR spectroscopy

The influence of change in land-use from native vegetation to pasture (20-71 yr after conversion), and subsequent change from pasture to eucalypt plantation (7-10 yr after conversion) on soil organic matter quality was investigated using C-13 CP/MAS NMR spectroscopy. We studied surface soil (0-10 cm) from six sites representing a range of soil, and climate types from south-western Australia. Total C in the samples ranged from 1.6 to 5.5%, but the relative proportions of the four primary spectral regions (alkyl, O-alkyl, aromatic and carboxylic) were similar across the sites, and changes due to land-use at each site were relatively minor. Main impacts of changed land-use were higher O-alkyl (carbohydrate) material under pasture than under native vegetation and plantation (P = 0.048), and lower aromatic C under pasture than under native vegetation (P = 0.027). The decrease in aromatic C in pasture soils was related to time since clearing. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural ordering of coal char during heat treatment and its impact on reactivity

The effect of heat treatment on the structure of an Australian semi-anthracite char was studied in detail in the 850-1150degreesC temperature range using XRD, HRTEM, and electrical resistivity techniques. It was found that the carbon crystallite size in the char does not change significantly during heat treatment in the temperature range studied, for both the raw coal and its ash-free derivative obtained by acid treatment. However, the fraction of the organized carbon in the raw coal chars, determined by XRD, increased with increase of heat treatment time and temperature, while that for the ash-free coal chars remained almost unchanged. This suggests the occurrence of catalytic ordering during heat treatment, supported by the observation that the electrical resistivity of the raw coal chars decreased with heat treatment, while that of the ash-free coal chars did not vary significantly. Further confirmatory evidence was provided by high resolution transmission electron micrographs depicting well-organized carbon layers surrounding iron particles. It is also found that the fraction of organized carbon does not reach unity, but attains an apparent equilibrium value that increases with increase in temperature, providing an apparent heat of ordering of 71.7 kJ mol(-1) in the temperature range studied. Good temperature-independent correlation was found between the electrical resistivity and the organized carbon fraction, indicating that electrical resistivity is indeed structure sensitive. Good correlation was also found between the electrical resistivity and the reactivity of coal char. All these results strongly suggest that the thermal deactivation is the result of a crystallite-perfecting process, which is effectively catalyzed by the inorganic matter in the coal char. Based on kinetic interpretation of the data it is concluded that the process is diffusion controlled, most likely involving transport of iron in the inter-crystallite nanospaces in the temperature range studied. The activation energy of this transport process is found to be very low, at about 11.8 kJ mol(-1), which is corroborated by model-free correlation of the temporal variation of organized carbon fraction as well as electrical resistivity data using the superposition method, and is suggestive of surface transport of iron. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A field study conducted at Kidston Gold Mine, to evaluate the impact of arsenic and zinc from mine tailing to grazing cattle

The grazing trial at Kidston Gold Mine, North Queensland, was aimed specifically to assess the uptake of metals from the tailing and the potential for unacceptable contamination of saleable meat. Further aims included estimating metal dose rates and identifying potential exposure pathways including plant uptake of heavy metals, mine tailings adhered to plants and direct ingestion of mine tailing. It was found that of the 11 metals analysed (As, Zn, Co, Cd, Cr, Sn, Pb, Sb, Hg, Se and Ni) in the animal's liver, muscle and blood during the 8-month trial period, only accumulation of arsenic and zinc occurred. A risk assessment including these two metals was conducted to determine the potential for chronic metal toxicity and long-term contamination, using the estimates of metal dose rate. It was concluded that no toxicity or long-term contamination in cattle was likely at this site. Management procedures were therefore not required at this site; however, the results highlight percent ground cover and standing dry matter (DM) as important factors in decreasing metal exposure from direct ingestion of tailings and dust adhered to plants. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of osteoarthritis on individuals and society: how much disability? Social consequences and health economic implications

Osteoarthritis is a major cause of disability in both the developed and developing world. With the population aging, the prevalence of osteoarthritis is increasing and its consequences are impacting significantly on society. This is one of the reasons why osteoarthritis has been adopted as a major focus (along with osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis, back pain, and musculoskeletal trauma) by the global initiative-the Decade of Bone and Joint Disease. Adequate studies on the costs of osteoarthritis are urgently required so that cogent arguments can be made to governments to appropriately fund prevention and treatment programs for this condition. Its recognition as a major cause of disability, particularly in the aging population, should increase community focus on this important condition. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins, Inc.

New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How does residue management impact soil organic matter composition and quality under Eucalyptus globulus plantations in southwestern Australia?

This study investigated the influence of harvest residue management practices on soil organic matter (SOM) composition and quality from two second-rotation Eucalyptus globulus plantations in southwestern Australia, using solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy with cross-polarisation and magic-angle-spinning (CPMAS). Soil samples (0–5 cm) were collected every 12 months for 5 years from two sites that had contrasting soil types and fertility. Harvest residue management treatments established at both sites were (a) no harvest residues; and (b) double harvest residues. The use of 13C CPMAS and DD NMR spectroscopy enabled the successful non-destructive detection of SOM quality changes in the two E. globulus plantations. Relative intensities of 13C CPMAS NMR spectral regions were similar at both sites, and for both harvest residue treatments, indicating that SOM composition was also similar. Dipolar dephasing (DD) NMR spectra revealed resonances in SOM assigned to lignin and tannin structures, with larger resonances in the carbonyl and alkyl C regions that were indicative of cuticular material, enabling detection of changes in SOM quality. Retention of double harvest residues on the soil surface increased the soil quality compared with removal of all harvest residues at both sites as indicated by the NMR aromaticities, but this was most noticeable at Manjimup, which had greater initial soil fertility.

Clinical and economic impact of exercise electrocardiography and exercise echocardiography in clinical practice

Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

A comprehensive insight into floc characteristics and their impact on compressibility and settleability of activated sludge

This paper presents a comprehensive study of sludge floc characteristics and their impact on compressibility and settleability of activated sludge in full scale wastewater treatment processes. The sludge flocs were characterised by morphological (floc size distribution, fractal dimension, filament index), physical (flocculating ability, viscosity, hydrophobicity and surface charge) and chemical (polymeric constituents and metal content) parameters. Compressibility and settleability were defined in terms of the sludge volume index (SVI) and zone settling velocity (ZSV). The floc morphological and physical properties had important influence on the sludge compressibility and settleability. Sludges containing large flocs and high quantities of filaments, corresponding to lower values of fractal dimension (D-f), demonstrated poor compressibility and settleability. Sludge flocs with high flocculating ability had lower SVI and higher ZSV, whereas high values of hydrophobicity, negative surface charge and viscosity of the sludge flocs correlated to high SVI and low ZSV. The quantity of the polymeric compounds protein. humic substances and carbohydrate in the sludge and the extracted extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) had significant positive correlations with SVI. The ZSV was quantitatively independent of the polymeric constituents. High concentrations of the extracted EPS were related to poor compressibility and settleability. The cationic ions Ca, Mg, Al and Fe in the sludge improved significantly the sludge compressibility and settleability. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.