Using circular statistics to analyse time patterns in crime incidence

A set of techniques referred to as circular statistics has been developed for the analysis of directional and orientational data. The unit of measure for such data is angular (usually in either degrees or radians), and the statistical distributions underlying the techniques are characterised by their cyclic nature-for example, angles of 359.9 degrees are considered close to angles of 0 degrees. In this paper, we assert that such approaches can be easily adapted to analyse time-of-day and time-of-week data, and in particular daily cycles in the numbers of incidents reported to the police. We begin the paper by describing circular statistics. We then discuss how these may be modified, and demonstrate the approach with some examples for reported incidents in the Cardiff area of Wales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling sediment delivery ratio over the Murray Darling Basin

This paper presents a scientific and technical description of the modelling framework and the main results of modelling the long-term average sediment delivery at hillslope to medium-scale catchments over the entire Murray Darling Basin (MDB). A theoretical development that relates long-term averaged sediment delivery to the statistics of rainfall and catchment parameters is presented. The derived flood frequency approach was adapted to investigate the problem of regionalization of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) across the Basin. SDR, a measure of catchment response to the upland erosion rate, was modeled by two lumped linear stores arranged in series: hillslope transport to the nearest streams and flow routing in the channel network. The theory shows that the ratio of catchment sediment residence time (SRT) to average effective rainfall duration is the most important control in the sediment delivery processes. In this study, catchment SRTs were estimated using travel time for overland flow multiplied by an enlargement factor which is a function of particle size. Rainfall intensity and effective duration statistics were regionalized by using long-term measurements from 195 pluviograph sites within and around the Basin. Finally, the model was implemented across the MDB by using spatially distributed soil, vegetation, topographical and land use properties under Geographic Information System (GIs) environment. The results predict strong variations in SDR from close to 0 in floodplains to 70% in the eastern uplands of the Basin. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling trickle irrigation: Comparison of analytical and numerical models for estimation of wetting front position with time

Irrigation practices that are profligate in their use of water have come under closer scrutiny by water managers and the public. Trickle irrigation has the propensity to increase water use efficiency but only if the system is designed to meet the soil and plant conditions. Recently we have provided a software tool, WetUp (http://www.clw.csiro.au/products/wetup/), to calculate the wetting patterns from trickle irrigation emitters. WetUp uses an analytical solution to calculate the wetted perimeter for both buried and surface emitters. This analytical solution has a number of assumptions, two of which are that the wetting front is defined by water content at which the hydraulic conductivity (K) is I mm day(-1) and that the flow occurs from a point source. Here we compare the wetting patterns calculated with a 2-dimensional numerical model, HYDRUS2D, for solving the water flow into typical soils with the analytical solution. The results show that the wetting patterns are similar, except when the soil properties result in the assumption of a point source no longer being a good description of the flow regime. Difficulties were also experienced with getting stable solutions with HYDRUS2D for soils with low hydraulic conductivities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Warranty cost analysis for second-hand products

For second-hand products sold with warranty, the expected warranty cost for an item to the manufacturer, depends on (i) the age and/or usage as well as the maintenance history for the item and (ii) the terms of the warranty policy. The paper develops probabilistic models to compute the expected warranty cost to the manufacturer when the items are sold with free replacement or pro rata warranties. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract specification in Object-Z and CSP

A number of integrations of the state-based specification language Object-Z and the process algebra CSP have been proposed in recent years. In developing such integrations, a number of semantic decisions have to be made. In particular, what happens when an operation's precondition is not satisfied? Is the operation blocked, i.e., prevented from occurring, or can it occur with an undefined result? Also, are outputs from operations angelic, satisfying the environment's constraints on them, or are they demonic and not influenced by the environment at all? In this paper we discuss the differences between the models, and show that by adopting a blocking model of preconditions together with an angelic model of outputs one can specify systems at higher levels of abstraction.

Determining the specification of a control system from that of its environment

Well understood methods exist for developing programs from given specifications. A formal method identifies proof obligations at each development step: if all such proof obligations are discharged, a precisely defined class of errors can be excluded from the final program. For a class of closed systems such methods offer a gold standard against which less formal approaches can be measured. For open systems -those which interact with the physical world- the task of obtaining the program specification can be as challenging as the task of deriving the program. And, when a system of this class must tolerate certain kinds of unreliability in the physical world, it is still more challenging to reach confidence that the specification obtained is adequate. We argue that widening the notion of software development to include specifying the behaviour of the relevant parts of the physical world gives a way to derive the specification of a control system and also to record precisely the assumptions being made about the world outside the computer.

Teaching software engineering fundamentals to practicing engineers

This paper describes an ongoing collaboration between Boeing Australia Limited and the University of Queensland to develop and deliver an introductory course on software engineering for Boeing Australia. The aim of the course is to provide a common understanding for all Boeing Australia's engineering staff of the nature of software engineering and the practices used throughout Boeing Australia. It is meant as an introductory course that can be presented to people with varying backgrounds, such as recent software engineering graduates, systems engineers, quality assurance personnel, etc. The paper describes the structure and content of the course, and the evaluation techniques used to collect feedback from the participants and the corresponding results. The course has been well-received by the participants, but the feedback from the course has indicated a need for more advanced courses in specific areas.