Proportionally balanced designs: Some further results and general constructions

Proportionally balanced designs were introduced by Gray and Matters in response to a need for the allocation of markers of the Queensland Core Skills Test to have a certain property. Put simply, markers were allocated to pairs of units in proportions that reflected the relative numbers of markers allocated in total to each unit. In this paper, the first author extends the theoretical results relating to such designs and provides further instances, and two general constructions, in the case that the design comprises blocks of precisely two sizes.

HPP1: A transmembrane protein-encoding gene commonly methylated in colorectal polyps and cancers

Adenomas are the precursors of most colorectal cancers. Hyperplastic polyps have been linked to the subset of colorectal cancers showing DNA microsatellite instability, but little is known of their underlying genetic etiology. Using a strategy that isolates differentially methylated sequences from hyperplastic polyps and normal mucosa, we identified a 370-bp sequence containing the 5' untranslated region and the first exon of a gene that we have called HPP1. Rapid amplification of cDNA ends was used to isolate HPP1 from normal mucose. Using reverse transcription-PCR, HPP1 was expressed in 28 of 30 (93%) normal colonic samples but in only seven of 30 (23%) colorectal cancers (P < 0.001). The 5' region of HPP1 included a CpG island containing 49 CpG sites, of which 96% were found to be methylated by bisulfite sequencing of DNA from colonic tumor samples. By COBRA analysis, methylation was detected in six of nine (66%) adenomas, 17 of 27 (63%) hyperplastic polyps, and 46 of 55 (84%) colorectal cancers. There was an inverse relationship between methylation level and mRNA expression in cancers (r = -0.67; P < 0.001), and 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine treatment restored HPP1 expression in two colorectal cancer cell lines. In situ hybridization of HPP1 indicated that expression occurs in epithelial and stromal elements in normal mucosa but is silenced in both cell types in early colonic neoplasia. HPP1 is predicted to encode a transmembrane protein containing follistatin and epidermal growth factor-like domains. Silencing of HPP1 by methylation may increase the probability of neoplastic transformation.

On the decay rates of buffers in continuous flow lines

Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Similar Markov chains

enin et al. (2000) recently introduced the idea of similarity in the context of birth-death processes. This paper examines the extent to which their results can be extended to arbitrary Markov chains. It is proved that, under a variety of conditions, similar chains are strongly similar in a sense which is described, and it is shown that minimal chains are strongly similar if and only if the corresponding transition-rate matrices are strongly similar. A general framework is given for constructing families of strongly similar chains; it permits the construction of all such chains in the irreducible case.

On the direct product of two weak uniquely completable partial latin squares

In this note we show by counter-example that the direct product of two weak uniquely completable partial latin squares is not necessarily a uniquely completable partial latin square. This counter-example rejects a conjecture by Gower (see [3]) on the direct product of two uniquely completable partial latin squares.

On the intersection problem for 1-factorizations and near 1-factorizations of K-v

The number of 1-factors (near 1-factors) that mu 1-factorizations (near 1-factorizations) of the complete graph K-v, v even (v odd), can have in common, is studied. The problem is completely settled for mu = 2 and mu = 3.

A framework for valuing derivative securities

This paper develops a general framework for valuing a wide range of derivative securities. Rather than focusing on the stochastic process of the underlying security and developing an instantaneously-riskless hedge portfolio, we focus on the terminal distribution of the underlying security. This enables the derivative security to be valued as the weighted sum of a number of component pieces. The component pieces are simply the different payoffs that the security generates in different states of the world, and they are weighted by the probability of the particular state of the world occurring. A full set of derivations is provided. To illustrate its use, the valuation framework is applied to plain-vanilla call and put options, as well as a range of derivatives including caps, floors, collars, supershares, and digital options.

Justice strategy options for increased customer satisfaction in a services recovery setting

This study investigates the influence of justice (procedural, interactional and distributive) on measures of customer satisfaction within a hotel setting. Specifically, the study investigates the levels of satisfaction associated with various combinations of procedural, interactional, and distributive justice related service recovery strategies. Using especially designed video vignettes of a hotel service breakdown, respondents rated their levels of satisfaction for the video vignettes that depicted varying levels of. (a) level of concern shown by the service provider, (b) whether policy was adhered to, (c) degree of 'voice' given to the customer, and (d) type of compensation. Between subject MANOVA analyses revealed a number of main effects and interactions. Results clearly show that satisfaction varied significantly depending on the various combinations of recovery measures. In particular, a two-way interaction between adherence to policy and type of compensation was found. Furthermore, it was found that respondents expressed higher satisfaction with the service when a 50% refund was given, and the provider was seen to be adhering to policy, rather than doing a special favor for the customer. In contrast, when a token measure of compensation is given (i.e. giving away a couple of drink vouchers), respondents expressed higher levels of satisfaction if the service provider was doing a special favor rather than merely adhering to company policy. Implications for managers and scholars are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

International market selection: Developing a model from Australian case studies

This paper develops a theory that firms seek out new country markets on the basis of expected commercial returns. These expectations depend on judgements about the attractiveness of the market and the firm's competitive position in it, which in turn are influenced by informants. It is the number and strengths of these informants that will underlie the probability of a country being identified and assessed as a new market by any firm.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

Fitting mixtures of Kent distributions to aid in joint set identification

When examining a rock mass, joint sets and their orientations can play a significant role with regard to how the rock mass will behave. To identify joint sets present in the rock mass, the orientation of individual fracture planer can be measured on exposed rock faces and the resulting data can be examined for heterogeneity. In this article, the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to lit mixtures of Kent component distributions to the fracture data to aid in the identification of joint sets. An additional uniform component is also included in the model to accommodate the noise present in the data.

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.