Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Ultrasound evaluation of polymer gel dosimeters

A new method for the evaluation of radiotherapy 3D polymer gel dosimeters has been developed using ultrasound to assess the significant structural changes that occur following irradiation of the dosimeters. The ultrasonic parameters of acoustic speed of propagation, attenuation and transmitted signal intensity were measured as a function of absorbed radiation dose. The dose sensitivities for each parameter were determined as 1.8 x 10(-4) s m(-1) Gy(-1), 3.9 dB m(-1) Gy(-1) and 3.2 V-1 Gy(-1) respectively. All parameters displayed a strong variation with absorbed dose that continued beyond absorbed doses of 15 Gy. The ultrasonic measurements demonstrated a significantly larger dynamic range in dose response curves than that achieved with previously published magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) dose response data. It is concluded that ultrasound shows great potential as a technique for the evaluation of polymer gel dosimeters.

Deconvolving the delta O-18 seawater component from subseasonal coral delta O-18 and Sr/Ca at Rarotonga in the southwestern subtropical Pacific for the period 1726 to 1997

To reconstruct oceanographic variations in the subtropical South Pacific, 271-year long subseasonal time series of Sr/Ca and delta(18)O were generated from a coral growing at Rarotonga (21.5degreesS, 159.5degreesW). In this case, coral Sr/Ca appears to be an excellent proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and seawater delta(18)O composition (delta(18)O(sw)). Here, we focus on extracting the delta(18)O(sw) signal from these proxy records. A method is presented assuming that coral Sr/Ca is solely a function of SST and that coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and delta(18)O(sw). This method separates the effects of delta(18)O(sw) from SST by breaking the instantaneous changes of coral delta(18)O into separate contributions by instantaneous SST and delta(18)O(sw) changes, respectively. The results show that on average delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga explains similar to39% of the variance in delta(18)O and that variations in SST explains the remaining similar to61% of delta(18)O variance. Reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) shows systematic increases in summer months (December-February) consistent with the regional pattern of variations in precipitation and evaporation. The delta(18)O(sw) also shows a positive linear correlation with satellite-derived estimated salinity for the period 1980 to 1997 (r = 0.72). This linear correlation between reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) and salinity makes it possible to use the reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) to estimate the past interannual and decadal salinity changes in this region. Comparisons of coral delta(18)O and delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga with the Pacific decadal oscillation index suggest that the decadal and interdecadal salinity and SST variability at Rarotonga appears to be related to basin-scale decadal variability in the Pacific. Copyright (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Visual biology of Hawaiian coral reef fishes. II. Colors of Hawaiian coral reef fish

The colors of 51 species of Hawaiian reef fish have been measured using a spectrometer and therefore can be described in objective terms that are not influenced by the human visual experience. In common with other known reef fish populations, the colors of Hawaiian reef fish occupy spectral positions from 300-800nm; yellow or orange with blue, yellow with black, and black with white are the most frequently combined colors; and there is no link between possession of ultraviolet (UV) reflectance and UV visual sensitivity or the potential for UV visual sensitivity. In contrast to other reef systems, blue, yellow, and orange appear more frequently in Hawaiian reef fish. Based on spectral quality of reflections from fish skin, trends in fish colors can be seen that are indicative of both visually driven selective pressures and chemical or physical constraints on the design of colors. UV-reflecting colors can function as semiprivate communication signals. White or yellow with black form highly contrasting patterns that transmit well through clear water. Labroid fishes display uniquely complex colors but lack the ability to see the UV component that is common in their pigments. Step-shaped spectral curves are usually long-wavelength colors such as yellow or red, and colors with a peak-shaped spectral curves are green, blue, violet, and UV.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

Physiologic parameters that affect pulse transit time difference between the upper and lower limbs in children

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a known parameter that is related to arterial distensibility. However, its potential is hampered by the absence of appropriate techniques to estimate it noninvasively. PWV can be used as an assessment of increased arterial stiffness that is linked to systolic hypertension, excess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.(1,2)

Application of biotechnology in breeding lentil for resistance to biotic and abiotic stress

Lentil is a self-pollinating diploid (2n = 14 chromosomes) annual cool season legume crop that is produced throughout the world and is highly valued as a high protein food. Several abiotic stresses are important to lentil yields world wide and include drought, heat, salt susceptibility and iron deficiency. The biotic stresses are numerous and include: susceptibility to Ascochyta blight, caused by Ascochyta lentis; Anthracnose, caused by Colletotrichum truncatum; Fusarium wilt, caused by Fusarium oxysporum; Sclerotinia white mold, caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum; rust, caused by Uromyces fabae; and numerous aphid transmitted viruses. Lentil is also highly susceptible to several species of Orabanche prevalent in the Mediterranean region, for which there does not appear to be much resistance in the germplasm. Plant breeders and geneticists have addressed these stresses by identifying resistant/tolerant germplasm, determining the genetics involved and the genetic map positions of the resistant genes. To this end progress has been made in mapping the lentil genome and several genetic maps are available that eventually will lead to the development of a consensus map for lentil. Marker density has been limited in the published genetic maps and there is a distinct lack of co-dominant markers that would facilitate comparisons of the available genetic maps and efficient identification of markers closely linked to genes of interest. Molecular breeding of lentil for disease resistance genes using marker assisted selection, particularly for resistance to Ascochyta blight and Anthracnose, is underway in Australia and Canada and promising results have been obtained. Comparative genomics and synteny analyses with closely related legumes promises to further advance the knowledge of the lentil genome and provide lentil breeders with additional genes and selectable markers for use in marker assisted selection. Genomic tools such as macro and micro arrays, reverse genetics and genetic transformation are emerging technologies that may eventually be available for use in lentil crop improvement.

Dynamic strain measurement using piezoelectric polymer film

Piezoelectric polymers have been used to form the basis of dynamic strain gauges for the detection of stress waves. The linearity of response was tested using a split Hopkinson pressure bar arrangement. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of piezoelectric film strain gauges in the measurement of axial stress waves.

Diel vertical migration: Modelling light-mediated mechanisms

Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd