El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

New integrable model of correlated electrons with off-diagonal long-range order from so(5) symmetry

We present a new integrable model for correlated electrons which is based on so(5) symmetry. By using an eta-pairing realization we construct eigenstates of the Hamiltonian with off-diagonal long-range order. It is also shown that these states lie in the ground state sector. We exactly solve the model on a one-dimensional lattice by the Bethe ansatz.

Ameloblast apoptosis and IGF-1 receptor expression in the continuously erupting rat incisor model

Enamel-producing cells (ameloblasts) pass through several phenotypic and functional stages during enamel formation. In the transition between secretory and maturation stages, about one quarter of the ameloblasts suddenly undergo apoptosis. We have studied this phenomenon using the continuously erupting rat incisor model. A special feature of this model is that all stages of ameloblast differentiation are presented within a single longitudinal section of the developing tooth. This permits investigation of the temporal sequence of gene and growth factor receptor expression during ameloblast differentiation and apoptosis. We describe the light and electron microscopic morphology of ameloblast apoptosis and the pattern of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression by ameloblasts in the continuously erupting rat incisor model. In the developing rat incisor, ameloblast apoptosis is associated with downregulated expression of the insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that ameloblasts are hard wired for apoptosis and that insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression is required to block the default apoptotic pathway. Possible mechanisms of insulin-like growth factor-1 inhibition of ameloblast apoptosis are presented. The rat incisor model may be useful in studies of physiological apoptosis as it presents apoptosis in a predictable pattern in adult tissues.

Who fails to complete tuberculosis treatment? Temporal trends and risk factors for treatment interruption in a community-based directly observed therapy programme in a rural district of South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.

Evolutionary conservation of the membrane fusion machine

Recent structural studies of proteins mediating membrane fusion reveal intriguing similarities between diverse viral and mammalian systems. Particularly striking is the close similarity between the transmembrane envelope glycoproteins from the retrovirus HTLV-1 and the filovirus Ebola. These similarities suggest similar mechanisms of membrane fusion. The model that fits most currently available data suggests fusion activation in viral systems is driven by a symmetrical conformational change triggered by an activation event such as receptor binding or a pH change. The mammalian vesicle fusion mediated by the SNARE protein complex most likely occurs by a similar mechanism but without symmetry constraints.

RWMODEL II: Computer simulation of the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning

RWMODEL II simulates the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning. It is written in Delphi and runs under Windows 3.1 and Windows 95. The program was designed for novice and expert users and can be employed in teaching, as well as in research. It is user friendly and requires a minimal level of computer literacy but is sufficiently flexible to permit a wide range of simulations. It allows the display of empirical data, against which predictions from the model can be validated.

Class attainment among British men - A multivariate extension of the CASMIN model of intergenerational class mobility

The CASMIN Project is arguably the most influential contemporary study of class mobility in the world. However, CASMIN results with respect to weak vertical status effects on class mobility have been extensively criticized. Drawing on arguments about how to model vertical mobility, Hout and Hauser (1992) show that class mobility is strongly determined by vertical socioeconomic differences. This paper extends these arguments by estimating the CASMIN model while explicitly controlling for individual determinants of socioeconomic attainment. Using the 1972 Oxford Mobility Data and the 1979 and 1983 British Election Studies, the paper employs mixed legit models to show how individual socioeconomic factors and categorical differences between classes shape intergenerational mobility. The findings highlight the multidimensionality of class mobility and its irreducibility to vertical movement up and down a stratification hierarchy.

HPV6b virus like particles are potent immunogens without adjuvant in man

Subjects with genital warts were immunized three times or more with HPV6b VLPs without adjuvant. All immunized subjects had DTH to HPV6b L1 protein. Of 32 subjects, nine had HPV6b specific antibody prior to immunization and 22 acquired antibody with immunization. VLP specific antibody increased following a single immunization in 6 of 8 subjects with low level antibody at recruitment. Complete regression of genital warts was observed in 25 of 33 evaluable subjects over the 20-week observation period. We conclude that immunization with HPV6b L1 VLPs without adjuvant induces immunity to the L1 protein epitopes recognised during natural infection, and may accelerate regression of warts. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

The role of mobile belts for the longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere: The crumple zone model

Many Archean cratons are surrounded by Proterozoic mobile belts that have experienced episodes of tectonic re-activation over their lifetimes. This suggests that mobile belt lithosphere may be associated with long lived, inherited weakness. It is proposed that the proximity of this weakness can increase the longevity of deep Archean lithosphere by buffering Archean cratons from mantle derived stresses. The physical plausibility of this idea is explored through numerical simulations of mantle convection that include continents and allow for material rheologies that model the combined brittle and ductile behavior of the lithosphere. Within the simulations, the longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere does increase if it is buffered by mobile belts that can fail at relatively low stress levels.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.

A model of specification-based testing of interactive systems

In this paper we present a model of specification-based testing of interactive systems. This model provides the basis for a framework to guide such testing. Interactive systems are traditionally decomposed into a functionality component and a user interface component; this distinction is termed dialogue separation and is the underlying basis for conceptual and architectural models of such systems. Correctness involves both proper behaviour of the user interface and proper computation by the underlying functionality. Specification-based testing is one method used to increase confidence in correctness, but it has had limited application to interactive system development to date.

Level-one highest weight representation of U-q[sl((N)over-cap vertical bar 1)] and Bosonization of the multicomponent Super t-J model

We study the level-one irreducible highest weight representations of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)], and calculate their characters and supercharacters. We obtain bosonized q-vertex operators acting on the irreducible U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)] modules and derive the exchange relations satisfied by the vertex operators. We give the bosonization of the multicomponent super t-J model by using the bosonized vertex operators. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0022- 2488(00)00508-9].

A model for adsorption of condensable vapors on nonporous materials

A new isotherm is proposed here for adsorption of condensable vapors and gases on nonporous materials having type II isotherms according to the Brunauer-Deming-Deming-Teller (BDDH) classification. The isotherm combines the recent molecular-continuum model in the multilayer region, with other widely used models for sub-monolayer coverage, some of which satisfy the requirement of a Henry's law asymptote. The model is successfully tested using isotherm data for nitrogen adsorption on nonporous silica, carbon and alumina, as well as benzene and hexane adsorption on nonporous carbon. Based on the data fits, out of several different alternative choices of model for the monolayer region, the Freundlich and the Unilan models are found to be the most successful when combined with the multilayer model to predict the whole isotherm. The hybrid model is consequently applicable over a wide pressure range. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Papillomavirus virus-like particles for the delivery of multiple cytotoxic T cell epitopes

Chimeric papillomavirus (PV) virus-like particles (VLPs) based on the bovine papillomavirus type 1 (BPV-1) L1 protein were constructed by replacing the 23-carboxyl-terminal amino acids of the BPV1 major protein L1 with an artificial polytope minigene, containing known CTL epitopes of human PV16 E7 protein, HIV IIIB gp120 P18, Nef, and reverse transcriptase (RT) proteins, and an HPV16 E7 linear B epitope. The CTL epitopes were restricted by three different MHC class 1 alleles (H-2(b), H-2(d), HLA-A*0201). The chimeric L1 protein assembled into VLPs when expressed in SF-9 cells by recombinant baculovirus. After immunization of mice with polytope VLPs in the absence of adjuvant, serum antibodies were detected which reacted with both polytope VLPs and wild-type BPV1L1 VLPs, in addition to the HPV16E7 linear B cell epitope. CTL precursors specific for the HPV16 E7, HIV P18, and RT CTL epitopes were also detected in the spleen of immunized mice. Polytope VLPs can thus deliver multiple B and T epitopes as immunogens to the MHC class I and class II pathways, extending the utility of VLPs as self-adjuvanting immunogen delivery systems. (C) 2000 Academic Press.