A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

A new formation model for M32: a threshed early-type spiral galaxy?

The origin of M32, the closest compact elliptical galaxy (cE), is a long-standing puzzle of galaxy fort-nation in the Local Group. Our N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations suggest a new scenario in which the strong tidal field of M31 can transform a spiral galaxy into a compact elliptical galaxy. As a low-luminosity spiral galaxy plunges into the central region of M31, most of the outer stellar and gaseous components of its disk are dramatically stripped as a result of M31's tidal field. The central bulge component, on the other hand, is just weakly influenced by the tidal field, owing to its compact configuration, and retains its morphology. M31's strong tidal field also induces rapid gas transfer to the central region, triggers a nuclear starburst, and consequently forms the central high-density and more metal-rich stellar populations with relatively young ages. Thus, in this scenario, M32 was previously the bulge of a spiral galaxy tidally interacting with M31 several gigayears ago. Furthermore, we suggest that cE's like M32 are rare, the result of both the rather narrow parameter space for tidal interactions that morphologically transform spiral galaxies into cE's and the very short timescale (less than a few times 10(9) yr) for cE's to be swallowed by their giant host galaxies (via dynamical friction) after their formation.

Transfer matrix eigenvalues of the anisotropic multiparametric U model

A multiparametric extension of the anisotropic U model is discussed which maintains integrability. The R-matrix solving the Yang-Baxter equation is obtained through a twisting construction applied to the underlying U-q(sl (2/1)) superalgebraic structure which introduces the additional free parameters that arise in the model. Three forms of Bethe ansatz solution for the transfer matrix eigenvalues are given which we show to be equivalent.

A context noise model of episodic word recognition

Item noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the words from the study list. Context noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the contexts in which the test word has appeared. The authors introduce the bind cue decide model of episodic memory, a Bayesian context noise model, and demonstrate how it can account for data from the item noise and dual-processing approaches to recognition memory. From the item noise perspective, list strength and list length effects, the mirror effect for word frequency and concreteness, and the effects of the similarity of other words in a list are considered. From the dual-processing perspective, process dissociation data on the effects of length, temporal separation of lists, strength, and diagnosticity of context are examined. The authors conclude that the context noise approach to recognition is a viable alternative to existing approaches.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Model for gas-liquid flow through wet porous medium

A method involving bubbling of air through a fibrous filter immersed in water has recently been investigated (Agranovski et al. [1]). Experimental results showed that the removal efficiency for ultra-fine aerosols by such filters was greatly increased compared to dry filters. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) imaging was used to examine the wet filter and to determine the nature of the gas flow inside the filter (Agranovski et al. [2]). It was found that tortuous preferential pathways (or flow tubes) develop within the filter through which the air flows and the distribution of air and water inside the porous medium has been investigated. The aim of this paper is to investigate the geometry of the pathways and to make estimates of the flow velocities and particle removal efficiency in such pathways. A mathematical model of the flow of air along the preferred pathways has been developed and verified experimentally. Even for the highest realistic gas velocity the flow field was essentially laminar (Re approximate to 250). We solved Laplace's equation for stream function to map trajectories of particles and gas molecules to investigate the possibility of their removal from the carrier.

Jordan-Wigner fermionization of the one-dimensional Bariev model of three coupled XY chains

The Jordan-Wigner fermionization for the one-dimensional Bariev model of three coupled XY chains is formulated. The L-matrix in terms of fermion operators and the R-matrix are presented explicitly. Furthermore, the graded reflection equations and their solutions are discussed.

The q-deformed supersymmetric t-J model with a boundary

The q-deformed supersymmetric t-J model on a semi-infinite lattice is diagonalized by using the level-one vertex operators of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl(2\1)]. We. give the bosonization of the boundary states. We give an integral expression for the correlation functions of the boundary model, and derive the difference equations which they satisfy.

A director theory for visco-elastic folding instabilities in multilayered rock

A model for finely layered visco-elastic rock proposed by us in previous papers is revisited and generalized to include couple stresses. We begin with an outline of the governing equations for the standard continuum case and apply a computational simulation scheme suitable for problems involving very large deformations. We then consider buckling instabilities in a finite, rectangular domain. Embedded within this domain, parallel to the longer dimension we consider a stiff, layered beam under compression. We analyse folding up to 40% shortening. The standard continuum solution becomes unstable for extreme values of the shear/normal viscosity ratio. The instability is a consequence of the neglect of the bending stiffness/viscosity in the standard continuum model. We suggest considering these effects within the framework of a couple stress theory. Couple stress theories involve second order spatial derivatives of the velocities/displacements in the virtual work principle. To avoid C-1 continuity in the finite element formulation we introduce the spin of the cross sections of the individual layers as an independent variable and enforce equality to the spin of the unit normal vector to the layers (-the director of the layer system-) by means of a penalty method. We illustrate the convergence of the penalty method by means of numerical solutions of simple shears of an infinite layer for increasing values of the penalty parameter. For the shear problem we present solutions assuming that the internal layering is oriented orthogonal to the surfaces of the shear layer initially. For high values of the ratio of the normal-to the shear viscosity the deformation concentrates in thin bands around to the layer surfaces. The effect of couple stresses on the evolution of folds in layered structures is also investigated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy for ovarian cancer

Transfer of the herpes simplex virus type I thymidine kinase (HSV-TK) gene into tumor cells using virus-based vectors in conjunction with ganciclovir (GCV) exposure provides a potential gene therapy strategy for the treatment of cancer. Effective gene therapy,, depends on the efficient transfer and specific targeting of therapeutic genes and their protein products to target cells. The purpose of this study was to investigate the anti-tumor effect of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy in animal models. Mouse models were generated with intraperitoneal injection of human epithelial ovarian cancer cells 3AO, which are MUC1-positive. HTV-1-based lentiviral vectors carrying VP22-TK or scFv-VP22-TK were prepared. The animals were injected intraperitoneally with lentivirus containing scFv-VP22-TK, VP22-TK followed by GCV treatment. Combined treatment of lentivirus-expressed scFv-VP22-TK or VP22-TK with GCV inhibited the proliferation and prolonged survival times compared with the control vector. The survival time of animals treated with scFv-VP22-TK/GCV was significantly longer than that of animals treated with VP22-TK/GCV (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Our results suggest that MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy can efficiently inhibit ovarian tumor growth and increase survival in a nude mouse model of ovarian carcinoma. These data support the development of this method for human clinical trials.