Evaluating design proposals for complex systems with work domain analysis

In this paper we propose a new framework for evaluating designs based on work domain analysis, the first phase of cognitive work analysis. We develop a rationale for a new approach to evaluation by describing the unique characteristics of complex systems and by showing that systems engineering techniques only partially accommodate these characteristics. We then present work domain analysis as a complementary framework for evaluation. We explain this technique by example by showing how the Australian Defence Force used work domain analysis to evaluate design proposals for a new system called Airborne Early Warning and Control. This case study also demonstrates that work domain analysis is a useful and feasible approach that complements standard techniques for evaluation and that promotes a central role for human factors professionals early in the system design and development process. Actual or potential applications of this research include the evaluation of designs for complex systems.

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Computer simulations of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems

The finite element method is used to simulate coupled problems, which describe the related physical and chemical processes of ore body formation and mineralization, in geological and geochemical systems. The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate some simulation results for different types of modelling problems in pore-fluid saturated rock masses. The aims of the simulation results presented in this paper are: (1) getting a better understanding of the processes and mechanisms of ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth; (2) demonstrating the usefulness and applicability of the finite element method in dealing with a wide range of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems; (3) qualitatively establishing a set of showcase problems, against which any numerical method and computer package can be reasonably validated. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Analysis of steady-state heat transfer through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems

We conduct a theoretical analysis of steady-state heat transfer problems through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we derive analytical solutions for both the far field and near field of the system. In order to investigate the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system, two concepts, namely the critical Peclet number and the critical permeability of the system, have been presented and discussed in this paper. The analytical solution for the far field of the system indicates that if the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic, the critical permeability of the system can be used to determine whether or not the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system is negligible. Otherwise, the critical Peclet number should be used. For a crust of moderate thickness, the critical permeability is of the order of magnitude of 10(-20) m(2), under which heat conduction is the overwhelming mechanism to transfer heat energy, even though the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic. Furthermore, the lower bound analytical solution for the near field of the system demonstrates that the permeable vertical cracks in the middle crust can efficiently transfer heat energy from the lower crust to the upper crust of the Earth. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

α′ phase stability in Nd-Li-sialon systems

The formability and stability of the alpha-sialon (alpha') phase was investigated in multi-cation Nd-Li-sialon systems. Four samples were prepared, ranging from a pure Nd-sialon to a pure Li-sialon, with two intermediate samples being prepared with either lithium or neodymium replacing the other alpha'-stabilising additive by 20 eq.%, as to maintain an equivalent design composition in all samples. After sintering, all samples were subsequently heat treated up to 192 h at 1450 and 1300 degreesC. While significant quantities of the beta'-sialon (beta' phase were found in most samples, the high-lithium Li-Nd-sialon sample was found to be almost pure a' phase after sintering. Furthermore, the long-term stability of the a' phase on heat treatment was also found to be superior in both multi-cation samples than in either of the single-alpha'-stabilising-cation samples. This is thought to be related to improved retention of the lithium in the multi-cation systems, as much of the lithium was found to volatilise during sintering in the neodymium-free sample. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Special issue: Selected papers from the sixth IFIP 2.6 working conference on visual database systems: Guest editors' introduction

While multimedia data, image data in particular, is an integral part of most websites and web documents, our quest for information so far is still restricted to text based search. To explore the World Wide Web more effectively, especially its rich repository of truly multimedia information, we are facing a number of challenging problems. Firstly, we face the ambiguous and highly subjective nature of defining image semantics and similarity. Secondly, multimedia data could come from highly diversified sources, as a result of automatic image capturing and generation processes. Finally, multimedia information exists in decentralised sources over the Web, making it difficult to use conventional content-based image retrieval (CBIR) techniques for effective and efficient search. In this special issue, we present a collection of five papers on visual and multimedia information management and retrieval topics, addressing some aspects of these challenges. These papers have been selected from the conference proceedings (Kluwer Academic Publishers, ISBN: 1-4020- 7060-8) of the Sixth IFIP 2.6 Working Conference on Visual Database Systems (VDB6), held in Brisbane, Australia, on 29–31 May 2002.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Designing teams for first-of-a-kind, complex systems using the initial phases of cognitive work analysis: Case study

We present a technique for team design based on cognitive work analysis (CWA). We first develop a rationale for this technique by discussing the limitations of conventional approaches for team design in light of the special characteristics of first-of-a-kind, complex systems. We then introduce the CWA-based technique for team design and provide a case study of how we used this technique to design a team for a first-of-a-kind, complex military system during the early stages of its development. In addition to illustrating the CWA-based technique by example, the case study allows us to evaluate the technique. This case study demonstrates that the CWA-based technique for team design is both feasible and useful, although empirical validation of the technique is still necessary. Applications of this work include the design of teams for first-of-a-kind, complex systems in military, medical, and industrial domains.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous X-ray imaging of plant root growth and water uptake in thin-slab systems

Direct and simultaneous observation of root growth and plant water uptake is difficult because soils are opaque. X-ray imaging techniques such as projection radiography or Computer Tomography (CT) offer a partial alternative to such limitations. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between resolution, large field-of-view and 3-dimensionality: With the current state of the technology, it is possible to have any two. In this study, we used X-ray transmission through thin-slab systems to monitor transient saturation fields that develop around roots as plants grow. Although restricted to 2-dimensions, this approach offers a large field-of-view together with high spatial and dynamic resolutions. To illustrate the potential of this technology, we grew peas in 1 cm thick containers filled with soil and imaged them at regular intervals. The dynamics of both the root growth and the water content field that developed around the roots could be conveniently monitored. Compared to other techniques such as X-ray CT, our system is relatively inexpensive and easy to implement. It can potentially be applied to study many agronomic problems, such as issues related to the impact of soil constraints (physical, chemical or biological) on root development.