184 resultados para early warning indicators
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Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease). Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations. Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed. Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.
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Stable isotope analyses of marine bivalve growth increment samples have been used to estimate early Oligocene (29.4 - 31.2) Ma and early Miocene (24.0 Ma) seafloor palaeotemperatures from the southwestern continental margin of the Ross Sea. Measured δ18O values average +2.5‰ in the early Miocene and range between +1.26 to +3.24‰ in the early Oligocene. The results show that palaeoceanographic conditions in McMurdo Sound during the mid-Cenozoic were significantly different from those of today. The minimum estimated spring through late summer seasonal temperature range was 3°C during the early Miocene and between 1 and 5°C during the early Oligocene. This compares to the equivalent modern day range of
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Multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) has previously been shown to provide accurate relative measures of lymphedema in the upper limb of patients (1). This paper reports the results of a three year prospective study to evaluate the efficacy of MFBIA to predict the early onset of lymphedema in patients following treatment for breast cancer. Bioelectrical impedance measurements and circumferential measurements of each upper limb were recorded in healthy control subjects (n=60) to determine the normal range of the ratio (dominant/non-dominant) of extracellular and total limb volumes respectively. Patients undergoing surgery for the treatment of breast cancer were recruited as the study group; MFBIA and circumferential measurements were recorded pre-surgery, one month post-surgery and then at two month intervals for 24 months. One hundred and two patients were recruited into the study. Twenty patients developed lymphedema in the 24 months follow up period of this study. In each of these 20 cases MFBIA predicted the onset of the condition up to 10 months before the condition could be clinically diagnosed. Estimates of the sensitivity and specificity were both approximately 100%. At the time of detection by MFBIA, only one of the patients returned a positive test result from the total limb volumes determined from the circumferential measures. These results confirmed the suitability of the MFBIA technique as a reliable diagnostic procedure for the early detection of lymphedema.
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Background: Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that a specific polymorphism (allele 2 of both IL-1A +4845 and IL-1B +3954) in the IL-1 gene cluster has been associated with an increased susceptibility to severe periodontal disease and to an increased bleeding tendency during periodontal maintenance. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between IL-1 genotype and periodontitis in a prospective longitudinal study in an adult population of essentially European heritage. Methods: From an ongoing study of the Oral Care Research Programme of The University of Queensland, 295 subjects consented to genotyping for IL-1 allele 2 polymorphisms. Probing depths and relative attachment levels were recorded at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months using the Florida probe. Periodontitis progression at a given site was defined as attachment loss greater than or equal to2 mm at any observation period during the 5 years of the study and the extent of disease progression determined by the number of sites showing attachment loss. Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia were detected using ELISA. Results: 38.9% of the subjects were positive for the composite IL-1 genotype. A relationship between the IL-1 positive genotype and increased mean probing pocket depth in non-smokers greater than 50 years of age was found. Further, IL-1 genotype positive smokers and genotype positive subjects with P. gingivalis in their plaque had an increase in the number of probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, There was a consistent trend for IL-1 genotype positive subjects to experience attachment loss when compared with IL-1 genotype negative subjects. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown an interaction of the IL-1 positive genotype with age, smoking and P. gingivalis which suggests that IL-1 genotype is a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression in this population.
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Background: Tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) plays an important role in the pathology of Crohn's disease. Infliximab, a chimeric antibody against TNF-alpha, has been shown in controlled clinical trials to be effective in two-thirds of patients with refractory or fistulating Crohn's disease. The factors that determine a clinical response in some patients but not others are unknown. Aims: To document the early Australian experience with infliximab treatment for Crohn's disease and to identify factors that may determine a beneficial clinical response. Methods: Gastroenterologists known to have used infliximab for Crohn's disease according to a compassionate use protocol were asked to complete a spreadsheet that included demographic information, Crohn's disease site, severity, other medical or surgical treatments and a global clinical assessment of Crohn's disease outcome, judged by participating physicians as complete and sustained (remission for the duration of the study), complete but unsustained (remission at 4 weeks but not for the whole study) or partial clinical improvement (sustained or unsustained). Results: Fifty-seven patients were able to be evaluated, with a median follow-up time of 16.4 (4-70) weeks, including 23 patients with fistulae. There were 21 adverse events, including four serious events. Fifty-one patients (89%) had a positive clinical response for a median duration (range) of 11 (2-70) weeks. Thirty patients (52%) had a remission at 4 weeks, 10 of whom had remission for longer than 12 weeks. Forty-two per cent of fistulae closed. Sustained remission (P = 0.065), remission at 4 weeks (P = 0.033) and a positive clinical response of any sort (P = 0.004) were more likely in patients on immunosuppressive therapy, despite there being more smelters in this group. Conclusion: This review of the first Australian experience with infliximab corroborates the reported speed and efficacy of this treatment for Crohn's disease. The excellent response appears enhanced by the concomitant use of conventional steroid-sparing immunosuppressive therapy.
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Background. A retrospective analysis was performed on adult renal transplant recipients to evaluate the relationship between tacrolimus trough concentrations and the development of rejection in the first month after transplant. Methods. A total of 349 concentrations from 29 patients, measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), were recorded. Based on an increased serum creatinine, 12 patients were considered to have organ rejection. Rejection was confirmed by biopsy in five of these. The median trough concentration of tacrolimus over the first month of therapy, or until the time of first rejection was compared in rejecters vs non-rejecters. Results. Median trough concentrations of tacrolimus were found to be lower in biopsy-proven rejecters vs non-rejecters (P=0.03) and all rejecters vs nonrejecters (P = 0.04). The average median concentration (+/- SD) in the biopsy-proven rejecter group was 5.09 +/-1.16 ng/ml, compared to 9.20 +/-3.52 ng/ml in the non-rejecter group. After exclusion of an outlier, the average median concentration in all rejecters was 5.57 +/-1.47 ng/rnl, compared with 9.20 +/-3.52 ng/ml in non-rejecters. A rejection rate of 55% was found for patients with a median trough concentration between 0 and 10 ng/ml. This compared with no observed rejection in patients with a median concentration between 10 and 15 ng/ml. Conclusion. A significant relationship exists between organ rejection and median tacrolimus trough concentrations in the first month post-transplant, with patients displaying low concentrations more likely to reject. In order to minimize rejection in the first month after renal transplantation, trough concentrations greater than 10 ng/ml must be achieved.
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Behavioral and cognitive interventions for people with psychosis have a long and distinguished history, although the evidence for their application to young people remains limited. We anticipate that the next decades will show substantial research into psychological intervention for this population. Important targets will include the management of environmental stressors, reduction of substance misuse, and promotion of early treatment. Psychological management of positive symptoms, depression, and suicidal behavior will continue to be critical objectives. Important secondary prevention goals will be the retention of cognitive functioning, vocational options, social skills, and social network support, including appropriate family support. We expect primary prevention to include both universal programs and interventions for adolescents at particularly high risk. Technical innovations will include increasing use of Internet-based intervention and behavior cueing devices. Pressures for intervention brevity will continue, as will problems with the systematic delivery of effective procedures.
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The study examined differences in gender stereotypes, restrained drinking and self-efficacy for alcohol refusal between moderate and high risk drinkers among a university sample of 301 women and 118 men. Both female and male high risk drinkers displayed a response conflict, typified by high scores on restrained drinking but low scores on self-efficacy. This pattern of response conflict was more pronounced for high risk drinking women, who also identified poorly with feminine trails (e.g. 'nurturing', 'love children', 'appreciative'). The findings are discussed in relation to society's double standard that accepts intoxication in men but condemns it in women. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Early HIV-1 reverse transcription can be separated into initiation and elongation phases. Here we show, using PCR analysis of negative-strand strong-stop DNA [(-)ssDNA] synthesis in intact virus, that different reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors affect distinct phases of early natural endogenous reverse transcription (NERT), The effects of nevirapine on NERT were consistent with a mechanism of action including both specific and nonspecific binding events. The nonspecific component of this inhibition targeted the elongation reaction, whereas the specific effect seemed principally to be directed at very early events (initiation or the initiation-elongation switch), In contrast, foscarnet and the nucleoside analog ddATP inhibited both early and late (-)ssDNA synthesis in a similar manner. We also examined compounds that targeted other viral proteins and found that Ro24-7429 (a Tat antagonist) and rosmarinic acid (an integrase inhibitor) also directly inhibited RT, Our results indicate that NERT can be used to identify and evaluate compounds that directly target the reverse transcription complex.
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Prioritizing areas for conservation requires the use of surrogates for assessing overall patterns of biodiversity. Effective surrogates will reflect general biogeographical patterns and the evolutionary processes that have given rise to these and their efficiency is likely to lie influenced by several factors, including the spatial scale of species turnover and the overall congruence of the biogeographical history. We examine patterns of surrogacy for insects, snails, one family of plants and vertebrates from rainforests of northeast Queensland, an area characterized by high endemicity and an underlying history of climate-induced vicariance. Nearly all taxa provided some level of prediction of the conservation values For others. However, despite an overall correlation of the patterns of species richness and complementarity, the efficiency of surrogacy was highly asymmetric.. snails and insects were strong predictors of conservation priorities for vertebrates, but not vice versa. These results confirm predictions that taxon surrogates can be effective in highly diverse tropical systems where there is a strong history of vicariant biogeography, but also indicate that correlated patterns for species richness and/or complementarity do not guarantee that one taxon will be efficient as a surrogate for another. In our case, the highly diverse and narrowly distributed invertebrates were more efficient as predictors than the less diverse and more broadly distributed vertebrates.