An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Anticipation of a non-aversive reaction time task facilitates the blink startle reflex

The conditions under which blink startle facilitation can be found in anticipation of a reaction time task were investigated to resolve inconsistent findings across previous studies. Four groups of participants (n = 64) were presented with two visual stimuli, one predicting a reaction time task (S+) and the second presented alone (S-). Participants were asked to make a speeded response to the offset of the S+ (S1 paradigm) or were asked to respond to a tactile stimulus presented at the offset of the S+ (S1-S2 paradigm). Half of the participants in each paradigm condition received performance feedback. Overall, blink latency shortening and magnitude facilitation were larger during S+ than during S-. More detailed analyses, however, found these differences to be reliable only in the Feedback conditions. Ratings of S+ pleasantness did not change across the experiment. Electrodermal responses to S+ were larger than to S- in all groups with differential electrodermal responding emerging earlier in the S1 paradigm. Taken together, the data support the notion that startle facilitation can occur during non-aversive Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing the time course of nonlinear discriminations during human electrodermal conditioning

Animal-based theories of Pavlovian conditioning propose that patterning discriminations are solved using unique cues or immediate configuring. Recent studies with humans, however, provided evidence that in positive and negative patterning two different rules are utilized. The present experiment was designed to provide further support for this proposal by tracking the time course of the allocation of cognitive resources. One group was trained in a positive patterning; schedule (A-, B-, AB+) and a second in a negative patterning schedule (A+, B+, AB-). Electrodermal responses and secondary task probe reaction time were measured. In negative patterning, reaction times were slower during reinforced stimuli than during non-reinforced stimuli at both probe positions while there were no differences in positive patterning. These results support the assumption that negative patterning is solved using a rule that is more complex and requires more resources than does the rule employed to solve positive patterning. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).

Efficient time-independent wave packet scattering calculations within a Lanczos subspace: H+O-2 (J=0) state-to-state reaction probabilities

An efficient Lanczos subspace method has been devised for calculating state-to-state reaction probabilities. The method recasts the time-independent wave packet Lippmann-Schwinger equation [Kouri , Chem. Phys. Lett. 203, 166 (1993)] inside a tridiagonal (Lanczos) representation in which action of the causal Green's operator is affected easily with a QR algorithm. The method is designed to yield all state-to-state reaction probabilities from a given reactant-channel wave packet using a single Lanczos subspace; the spectral properties of the tridiagonal Hamiltonian allow calculations to be undertaken at arbitrary energies within the spectral range of the initial wave packet. The method is applied to a H+O-2 system (J=0), and the results indicate the approach is accurate and stable. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Lanczos subspace time-independent wave packet calculations of S(D-1)+H-2 reactive scattering

In this paper. we present the results of quantum dynamical simulations of the S (D-1) + H-2 insertion reaction on a newly developed potential energy surface (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 320). State-to-state reaction probabilities. product state distributions, and initial-state resolved cumulative reaction probabilities from a given incoming reactant channel are obtained from a time-independent wave packet analysis, performed within a single Lanczos subspace. Integral reaction cross sections are then estimated by J-shifting method and compared with the results from molecular beam experiment and QCT calculations.